Cardinals post season press conference announced

[dmarx114]

Someone should say this out loud before we delve too deeply into the corporate double speak that permeates MLB press conferences these days: If the Cardinals keep Leahy, McGreevy and Pallante all in the rotation, they are punting next season.

All three of them exceeded their xERA. For McGreevy and Leahy, the gap was significant. What we saw from them this season was pretty much the best-case scenario. Their lack of strikeouts and high WHIPs are not conducive to continued success. You can have one guy like that. You can't have three.

Could they improve? Sure. Could the defense and Grand Canyon ballpark prop them up more? Absolutely. In fact, both probably will. But if the Cardinals are banking on that, they're not trying. Bloom knows those guys are smoke and mirrors far better than I do. So if he sticks with them, he's telling us he's looking at 2028.

Let us know how you would construct the rotation if you were Bloom.

[ghostrunner]

Someone should say this out loud before we delve too deeply into the corporate double speak that permeates MLB press conferences these days: If the Cardinals keep Leahy, McGreevy and Pallante all in the rotation, they are punting next season.

All three of them exceeded their xERA. For McGreevy and Leahy, the gap was significant. What we saw from them this season was pretty much the best-case scenario. Their lack of strikeouts and high WHIPs are not conducive to continued success. You can have one guy like that. You can't have three.

Could they improve? Sure. Could the defense and Grand Canyon ballpark prop them up more? Absolutely. In fact, both probably will. But if the Cardinals are banking on that, they're not trying. Bloom knows those guys are smoke and mirrors far better than I do. So if he sticks with them, he's telling us he's looking at 2028.

Let us know how you would construct the rotation if you were Bloom.

The proposition is not to bring back the full trio, if I'm not mistaken.

For myself:

Trade McGreevy while you can. Put Libby in the pen. Add Mathews until he performs his way out of it. Swap in or spot start Cjintje whenever they think he's ready.

So that's Leahy, Pallante, and Mathews. Maybe Cjintje.

Projected payroll for 2027 is about $115M short of where they were in 2024. Minus maybe another $10 to $22M (I'm guessing) depending on what they do with arb guys and Stanek). And they now have what's considered a top farm system. I don't think it should be that hard to sign or trade for at least one pitcher better than those three. Enough room there to ditch Pallante (who's in year two of arb) too if you want.

[jagtrader]

They’re taking about putting Libby back in the rotation. Tells you all you need to know. Punting 2027.

[dmarx114]

Someone should say this out loud before we delve too deeply into the corporate double speak that permeates MLB press conferences these days: If the Cardinals keep Leahy, McGreevy and Pallante all in the rotation, they are punting next season.

All three of them exceeded their xERA. For McGreevy and Leahy, the gap was significant. What we saw from them this season was pretty much the best-case scenario. Their lack of strikeouts and high WHIPs are not conducive to continued success. You can have one guy like that. You can't have three.

Could they improve? Sure. Could the defense and Grand Canyon ballpark prop them up more? Absolutely. In fact, both probably will. But if the Cardinals are banking on that, they're not trying. Bloom knows those guys are smoke and mirrors far better than I do. So if he sticks with them, he's telling us he's looking at 2028.

Let us know how you would construct the rotation if you were Bloom.

The proposition is not to bring back the full trio, if I'm not mistaken.

For myself:

Trade McGreevy while you can. Put Libby in the pen. Add Mathews until he performs his way out of it. Swap in or spot start Cjintje whenever they think he's ready.

So that's Leahy, Pallante, and Mathews. Maybe Cjintje.

Projected payroll for 2027 is about $115M short of where they were in 2024. Minus maybe another $10 to $22M (I'm guessing) depending on what they do with arb guys and Stanek). And they now have what's considered a top farm system. I don't think it should be that hard to sign or trade for at least one pitcher better than those three. Enough room there to ditch Pallante (who's in year two of arb) too if you want.

I was interested in seeing names (from both you and the previous poster). Which free agent? Who are we trading for and who are we giving up?

And what is McGreevy bringing back in a trade?

[Popeye_Card]

I think there's an alternate universe where Leahy, McGreevy, and Pallante are penciled into a rotation of a contending team. But you would need 2 established starters better than the 3 of them, and I don't envision the Cardinals finding that.

Futile exercise anyway. We already know that the Cardinals are punting 2027.

[ghostrunner]

I don't know that you really need 2 new pitchers, but they could easily do that just in terms of what's available. They could possibly mathematically afford Skubal's next contract twice. They won't do that but the room is there.

Below is the list fangraphs has for 2027 FAs who are >= Pallante, who had highest fWAR for the season. I don't think WAR's the best way to look at it, but that's how they have it organized.

If you're going by xERA, these guys off that list come out higher than Pallante, who's also highest in that category - Skubal, Rasmussen, Rogers, Gausman, Gray, Martinez, Alcantara, Soroka, Mahle, Mize, Peralta, Imanaga, Holmes. Most all the rest are higher than either Leahy or McGreevy

If you go by xFIP, it's a little muddier. Leahy is the highest of the 3 at 3.65 xFIP. Above that from the FA list, you have Skubal, Rasmussen, and Gausman. And after that above Pallante, you have Gray, Soroka, Imanaga, Griffin, Mahle, Rogers, and May

I think Gausman, Rogers, Mahle, Soroka, and Imanaga would all be doable, and a better option than McGreevy at least. And most would probably do a little better at Busch than where they came from.

Outside of free agents, that's a wider set of options. Trades are hard, but that's what Bloom is there for.

Tarik Skubal
Drew Rasmussen Club Option Not Happening
Trevor Rogers
Sonny Gray Mutual Option Probably FA
Sandy Alcantara Club Option Not Happening
Kevin Gausman
Nick Martinez Mutual Option Probably FA
Dustin May Mutual Option Probably FA
Michael Soroka Mutual Option Probably FA
Michael King Player Option Tossup


Below that, you've got:

Foster Griffin
Casey Mize
Tyler Mahle
Freddy Peralta
Shota Imanaga
Clay Holmes Player Option Probably FA
David Peterson
Matthew Boyd Mutual Option Probably FA
Cal Quantrill
Martín Pérez
Walker Buehler (1.5 WAR)

[heyzeus]

We should sign Dustin May and trade him to the Brewers for two excellent prospects again.

[ghostrunner]

Below is a transcript of what Goold said and it looks more cryptic seeing it in print.

There was also an earlier part of the discussion where Goold was saying a cap could allow the Cardinals to make some moves because not only might there be a floor they have to meet, but there'd also be some teams who might have to cut payroll, as well as several teams who wouldn't have the room to take advantage of it. Not sure how that's worked out in other leagues when a cap was added.

This is where he mentions the TV deal. I don't know what meaningfully changes in 2028 with respect to that, but that seems to be the implication. Not sure why you'd want to wait to have ticket sales go up, so not sure what that means.

But so much of what they've set their watch by is looking at like the the avenues and we've talked about this that all come together in 2028. And so it's not just the lockout. It's also the timing of some of their young players. It's also the TV deal. It's also when they want to have, you know, some real uptick and some better draw for ticket sales, right? They they would like to have a lot of these things converge on 2028.

I think it's an interesting hypothetical to go like, well, what if the CBA wasn't expiring? Would this season encourage the Cardinals to dial it up a little bit or is that TV deal and all those other things that are in place still going to set the clock for 2028? I don't I don't know if we'll ever know. like you said, it's not really one, but their performance this year and certainly if you were to sit down and
make a list of what they need that would radically change them and could like supercharge the roster, um, which say includes Bernal at catcher, say includes Baez in left field, maybe even includes Baez at third base, or they go out and get a third baseman to change the look of this team. I think that's a really interesting exercise of like the what if, right? But a lockout is coming. A CBA is expiring and we can see how they are more in tune with being a contender that emerges in this new landscape, not drives into it.

[ghostrunner]

Someone should say this out loud before we delve too deeply into the corporate double speak that permeates MLB press conferences these days: If the Cardinals keep Leahy, McGreevy and Pallante all in the rotation, they are punting next season.

All three of them exceeded their xERA. For McGreevy and Leahy, the gap was significant. What we saw from them this season was pretty much the best-case scenario. Their lack of strikeouts and high WHIPs are not conducive to continued success. You can have one guy like that. You can't have three.

Could they improve? Sure. Could the defense and Grand Canyon ballpark prop them up more? Absolutely. In fact, both probably will. But if the Cardinals are banking on that, they're not trying. Bloom knows those guys are smoke and mirrors far better than I do. So if he sticks with them, he's telling us he's looking at 2028.

Let us know how you would construct the rotation if you were Bloom.

The proposition is not to bring back the full trio, if I'm not mistaken.

For myself:

Trade McGreevy while you can. Put Libby in the pen. Add Mathews until he performs his way out of it. Swap in or spot start Cjintje whenever they think he's ready.

So that's Leahy, Pallante, and Mathews. Maybe Cjintje.

Projected payroll for 2027 is about $115M short of where they were in 2024. Minus maybe another $10 to $22M (I'm guessing) depending on what they do with arb guys and Stanek). And they now have what's considered a top farm system. I don't think it should be that hard to sign or trade for at least one pitcher better than those three. Enough room there to ditch Pallante (who's in year two of arb) too if you want.

I was interested in seeing names (from both you and the previous poster). Which free agent? Who are we trading for and who are we giving up?

And what is McGreevy bringing back in a trade?

Also I think this is really missing the point. The question implied is "are McGreevy, Pallante, and Leahy all together the best possible use of three rotation spots". I think that's obviously not true. If we were at near max payroll and we already had better pitchers, I could see an argument.

I'd ask these questions - "what's a realistic timeframe for the team to either:

a) put money into significantly improving the rotation?
b) build a playoff rotation from within?

Is it 2028? 2029? If so, why are those better and how does that answer your questions about free agents and trades differently?"

Or are we just betting that the rotation is filled with former prospects? I'd guess odds are that maybe one of Mathews, Cjintje, Doyle, Molina, Franklin, Fitts, Dobbins, etc... is a significant improvement over McG, Pallante, and Leahy. Maybe two? and who knows how long that takes to actually happen?

[jagtrader]

He always misses the point.