Coronavirus

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TheoSqua
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by TheoSqua »

cardinalkarp wrote: ↑
August 21 21, 11:30 am
ghostrunner wrote: ↑
August 21 21, 11:16 am
What’s wrong with those numbers?
Im reading that as of the 6,587 Covid-19 breakthrough cases as of July 26, 6,239 required hospitalizations and out of those 6,587 there were 1,263 deaths? That doesn’t seem off to you?

On top of that, the article had been updated on 8/2….here’s another article from MSN published 2 hours ago, but includes data from 8/8 from both California and Massachusetts on their breakthrough cases….

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... ar-AANsHhB

And here’s data from the article….
As of Aug. 8, 0.3% of Californians—or 57,491 fully vaccinated people out of 21.6 million full vaccinated individuals—have tested positive for the virus. Massachusetts last week said that 0.2% people in the state—or 9,969 people out of the 4.3 million who have been fully vaccinated—have reported breakthrough infections, according to media reports. About 450 of those individuals were hospitalized, and 105 people died.
So the CDC, as of 8/2 is reporting 6,587 breakthrough cases, yet California and Massachusetts alone is reporting close to 68,000 as of 8/8.


Edit: While I still do question the amount of breakthrough cases resulting in death, I wasn’t questioning the math on that. I’m questioning the fact that CNN/CDC we’re basically saying that nearly EVERY breakthrough case resulted in a hospitalization…or that’s how that sentence reads to me.
If you dig into the data that is referenced on this article, it takes you to this: https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DC ... Cases.aspx

There it states:
For the week of August 9-15, the average daily COVID-19 case rate among unvaccinated Californians is 51 per 100,000 and the average daily COVID-19 case rate among fully vaccinated Californians is much lower at 7.6 per 100,000.
Between January 01, 2021 and August 15, 2021 in California: Out of over 21.9 million fully vaccinated individuals, 75,135 post-vaccination cases (0.3%) have been identified.
So 75k vaccinated cases in California since January 1st. According to https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart there have been 1,811,332 Covid cases in California since then.

So In 2021 California had 1,736,332 Unvaccinated cases and 75,135 vaccinated cases.

So 95.8% of cases have been attributed to unvaccinated individuals. For the above week of August, where over 50% of individual are vaccinated in California, 87% of cases are attributed to unvaccinated individuals. (I'm averaging them even though the vaccinated/unvaccinated population isn't split 50/50. But California had more vaccinated individuals during August 9-15, so this uneven average is actually helping the unvaccinated numbers)

Let's say reporting is off by 50% and it's really 11.4 per 100k unvaccinated and 47.2 per 100k unvaccinated. Statistically, 50% variance like this would be an unheard-of misrepresentation of data. So now we're giving the unvaccinated numbers help by averaging at 50/50 when there are more unvaccinated individuals AND we're giving them a 50% margin of error.

That means 80.5% of cases are from unvaccinated individuals and 19.45% from vaccinated individuals.

So even if we skew the math to give unvaccinated ratios a huge advantage that statistically makes no sense, we still come to the conclusion that 80% of cases between August 8th and August 15th (there were 85k documented cases in California during this timespan, which is a significant sample size).

So the numbers tell us a vast overwhelming majority of transmissions come from unvaccinated individuals.

Let's say the numbers are even more off and we double that random number and say vaccinated transmission in California was 22 per 100k, but we extrapolate that over a 100% vaccinated population. That means California would have had 17,000 infections in California and not 85,000.

So even if all the vaccination numbers are off by double what the stats are showing us. If 100% of the population were vaccinated right now, we would have 20% of the infection rates in California that we have right now.
cardinalkarp wrote: ↑
August 21 21, 1:32 pm
The main issue I have is the blaming of the unvaccinated for the continuation of the virus, it’s just not based in reality IMO.
This is i think where the crux of the disagreement on this forum comes from. Even when we skew the numbers to a point that the current statistics are unfathomably wrong, the numbers we have show that the unvaccinated are overwhelmingly the reason for the continuation of the virus at the rate that it currently is at.

The equivalent of this is the mainstream media/consensus being that 1+1 = 2 and the data being mathematical proofs that show 1+1 = 2. It feels like you are trying to have an opinion on statistics.

Using numbers, your argument honestly boils down to: "1+1=2 is just not based in reality IMO. 1+1=3."

I know that sounds harsh and like i'm attacking you, but i honestly am not intending to. It feels like yourself and others who are not sold on the impact of the vaccine are instead arguing that we as collection of governments and medical/scientific communities do not have the correct tabulation and evidence to prove the vaccination equivalent of 1+1=2. And that you can't trust the equivalent of a mathematical proof that shows that vaccinations are as effective/safe as all of the data say they are.

In my opinion, that is a completely different argument. The data cannot be argued with, but if you don't trust how the data was curated and the accurate of the data being used to draw those conclusions, then arguing with data really doesn't hold much weight.

It's like using scriptures in the Bible to prove to an atheist that God exists. If you don't trust the source material, using the source material as an argument is moot point.

I think this is why the bash-on-the-people-who-don't-trust-the-vaccine trend that is going on in this thread is a complete waste of time. It feels what we're disagreeing on and what we're arguing about are two different things.

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cardinalkarp
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by cardinalkarp »

It feels like yourself and others who are not sold on the impact of the vaccine are instead arguing that we as collection of governments and medical/scientific communities do not have the correct tabulation and evidence to prove the vaccination equivalent of 1+1=2. And that you can't trust the equivalent of a mathematical proof that shows that vaccinations are as effective/safe as all of the data say they are.

In my opinion, that is a completely different argument. The data cannot be argued with, but if you don't trust how the data was curated and the accurate of the data being used to draw those conclusions, then arguing with data really doesn't hold much weight.
I would say you’re correct in that I don’t trust the numbers that are coming out from the US and the CDC. Their mission is to vaccinate everyone and they will manipulate data to accomplish that mission.

Is that jaded and cynical….yes it 100% is, and honestly I feel I have every right to have that opinion because of the ways we’ve been lied and manipulated to believe certain things throughout this entire pandemic.

I fear it will take something devastating regarding the potential long term effects of this vaccine (or it doing something in children that’s worse than the disease itself) for light to be shed on the vaccine being potentially harmful. And for the love of god I don’t want to see that happen, as nearly everyone I know has gotten the vaccine.

And yes, I’ll readily admit that’s conspiratorial….and I really wish the distrust of the government (and vaccine manufacturers) didn’t run so deep in me, but they’ve made their bed. I would love to be able to trust everything that was coming out, but they just haven’t earned that trust.

The fact that I don’t think the vaccine is the best decision for myself, doesn’t mean I’m “anti-vaxx”. I just don’t think it’s the best decision based on my own lifestyle choices. The risk benefit of the vaccine vs. COVID doesn’t make sense to me.

This is in addition to the fact that the long term potential side effects of the vaccine still outweigh the risks of COVID…..FOR ME. And I feel I should have the right to make that decision.

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AdmiralKird
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Re: Coronavirus

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sighyoung
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Re: Coronavirus

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MrCrowesGarden
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by MrCrowesGarden »

Pfizer is officially fully FDA approved

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GeddyWrox
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by GeddyWrox »

MrCrowesGarden wrote: ↑
August 23 21, 7:46 am
Pfizer is officially fully FDA approved
Sweet. I'm going to get my booster as soon as it's possible.

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GeddyWrox
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by GeddyWrox »

Are Missouri and Nebraska falsifying their numbers or something? I don't believe either state is especially resilient to Delta variant.

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/us-counties

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MrCrowesGarden
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by MrCrowesGarden »

Nebraska isn't reporting

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obucard
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by obucard »

MrCrowesGarden wrote: ↑
August 23 21, 7:46 am
Pfizer is officially fully FDA approved
Anti-vaxxers are installing wheels on the goalposts as we speak.

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heyzeus
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by heyzeus »

Vaccine side effects show up by now. We would know if there were horrible side effects. We know about the risks that exist, and doctors advise their patients on whether to get the vaccine based on their patients' individual health records.

I have two kids under 11. Trust me, I worry about unknown risks of the vaccine for them. But I also read, understand, and trust medical science. I also know that worrying about theoretical, abstract risks from the vaccine that likely will never occur makes little sense when there are actual, potentially catastrophic risks of my kids getting COVID right now. I will not risk the latter in the off chance of the former occurring.

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