Sim advice (free agency)

[Socnorb11]

My team is solid, other than the starting rotation. Right now, I've got Felix Hernandez (good), Carlos Rosa (Royals rookie), Ian Kennedy (may or may not sim well), and Adam Miller (Indians stud who may be a year away from simming really well).

I have $30 mil available to spend on free agents, and I want to spend it all on starting pitchers. Here's the list of top tier starters available:

Chris Carpenter
Derek Lowe
Johan Santana
Ben Sheets
John Smoltz


So, prioritize. Obviously Santana is the best of the best, but other teams are going to be going nuts to get him, too. Carpenter's 2009 projections are actually outstanding, and I'm wondering if I might be able to sneak him in under the radar.

Any thoughts? How much do you think each of those guys is worth?

[haltz]

could you post the projections you are using?

[UK]

I would assume DMB projections.

[haltz]

I would assume DMB projections.

I don't think it's out yet, but I could be wrong.

[Socnorb11]

I would assume DMB projections.

I don't think it's out yet, but I could be wrong.

You're both right.

Free agency ends before the 2009 DMB projections are released, so I'm just browsing other projections (Bill James & Marcel both prject Carpenter to do very well, so I guess I'm "assuming" that DMB will also).

[UK]

If I was to rank them in order:

Santana
Sheets
Lowe
Carpenter
Smoltz

I doubt DMB will project Smoltz or Carpenter more than 125IP.

Having know the financial structure of the league, I don't know how much each guy would be worth considering it might be different and some of those GMs might be willing to pull a Yankees type move with a Pirates budget.

That was my main beef with how the DMBO FA was set-up as far as being able to buy the software and base players off of projected seasons, I'm glad to see that was corrected.

Tell Robb, Mark, and Jim I say hello.

[haltz]

Aren't sim engines pretty slavish to the playing time estimates? IOW, if you run it 100x won't Carpenter average 65 innings (say DMB's projections equal Marcel). If that's the case, it's something you really need to consider. Here's what the WAR calculator has to say with Marcel (using real MLB dollars that may not translate to your league):

[UK]

IIRC, DMB is a little bit more negative towards age regression than most simulators.

[Socnorb11]

Aren't sim engines pretty slavish to the playing time estimates? IOW, if you run it 100x won't Carpenter average 65 innings (say DMB's projections equal Marcel). If that's the case, it's something you really need to consider. Here's what the WAR calculator has to say with Marcel (using real MLB dollars that may not translate to your league):

From what I've seen, DMB hardly acknowledges playing time estimates.

For instance, Carpenter threw 215 innings in our league last year, and posted a 3.97 ERA, with Cincinnati being his home park.

Francisco Liriano threw 175.1 innings in our league last year, posting a 2.41 ERA.

[haltz]

From what I've seen, DMB hardly acknowledges playing time estimates.

For instance, Carpenter threw 215 innings in our league last year, and posted a 3.97 ERA, with Cincinnati being his home park.

Francisco Liriano threw 175.1 innings in our league last year, posting a 2.41 ERA.

Maybe it's how you're specific league is set up. I'm pretty sure that when I messed around with DMB and the ZiPS projections last offseason that they averaged pretty close to the playing time estimates.

I'd look into that. Whatever the answer is will really affect who you go after.