Basic Fantasy Draft Strategy

[vinsanity]

Curious what your guys basic football draft strategy is?

I imagine most people grab 2 RB first. Maybe Manning in the mid of the second? Do you grab a QB before your receivers? Or do you try and nab a top receiver in the third round?

DEF or TE first? Backups or K's?

I had my first ever Football draft today and lucked out with the top pick. So of course I grabbed LT. When it got back all the good RB's were gone and I didn't know if I should take a QB, RB or WR. I took Portis to fill out my RB's and Palmer because well he scored more pts than most WR's last year. But all of the WR's were still on the board. I ended up with Hines Ward, Devery Henderson, Issac Bruce, Terry Glenn and Mike Furry. Decent strategy or should I go read Fantasy Football 101?

[MrCrowesGarden]

In non-autopick leagues, I generally draft RBs with my first two and sometimes three picks, even in a league where I can only start two. Injuries happen far too often, but at the same time I always feel the need to have two very good RBs starting in every week.

However, I've started to warm up to the idea of going elsewhere with my 3rd pick. If I'm in the middle of the 3rd, I like Antonio Gates because he's such a beast of a TE, far better than anyone else. He's good for about 900 yards and about 10 TDs, which isn't very good for a WR but is amazing for a TE.

Let's say that I have the choice of picking Antonio Gates or Marvin Harrison in the 3rd round. Harrison is worth about 135 points using Yahoo's standard points system; Gates is worth about 110. Most people will grab Marvin because he scores more points; however, you need your team to score the most points. If I pick Harrison, I'll probably end up going with someone like Jason Witten as my TE some 18 picks later. Combined, they're worth about 180 points (Harrison's 135 plus Witten's 45).

However, if you draft Gates, you may be able to get a WR like Houshmandzadeh about 18 picks later, and the two of them combined could get you close to 200 (Gates' 110 plus Housh's 90).

[JCShutout]

I draft the way I play poker. Sure I focus on my rankings, but I play the other draftees and the draft itself too. I would look at other teams' rosters and how they were drafting to estimate how many QBs or WRs would go, based on what they had and what was left.

I have my rankings: Certain players categorized into "Tiers".

Tier 1, 2 and 3 RBs all went by the early-second round. At that point, tier 1 WRs had priority for me. Etc etc etc. If I missed out on Gates, then I didn't focus on tier 2 TEs unless I could ether steal one in round 9 or so, or if a tier 2 TE was just by far the best player on the board (which would at the earliest be like round 7.

Its a fluid structure that worked I think for 2 of my 3 drafts.

[BenNX74205]

I agree with JC on this one. You can't lock into taking a certain position at a certain time, because drafts are very fluid. You can't predict exactly when a position run will start (except the run on RBs at the beginning of a draft). If I have a pick in the bottom half of a draft, I usually go for RB-RB, but if Steve Smith or Peyton Manning is still around, versus like Cedric Benson, then I will grab them. If I pick near the top, I try and grab 2 RB, 1 WR, and 1 QB/Antonio Gates in the first 4 rounds. I usually don't get Gates. If the top-notch QBs are gone, then I wait a couple rounds for the Romo/Leinart/Young level a couple rounds later.

My main strategy is to look at players relative to the players at the same position I could grab later. At each position, there is a point where talent starts to clump around a certain level. For example, there are a lot of WRs that are going to score in the 100-130 range this season. The difference between 130 (Santana Moss) and 100 (Isaac Bruce) is 30 points over the season, or about 2 points/week. Those points matter, but at that point it becomes less imperative to take a WR with my next pick, and I may move to TE or QB, depending on the talent available.

If you pick at the end of a round and the beginning of the next, don't be afraid to reach a bit for a player you really like. If you want Adrian Peterson (me), you can take him 5 picks early because you know he won't make it back to you. But at the same time, don't reach for a player because there is a position run. When the talent left is comparable, get something more important. Be the one who starts the TE/DEF run, not the one who ends it.

Hope that made sense, and more importantly helps.

[JCShutout]

My main strategy is to look at players relative to the players at the same position I could grab later. At each position, there is a point where talent starts to clump around a certain level. For example, there are a lot of WRs that are going to score in the 100-130 range this season. The difference between 130 (Santana Moss) and 100 (Isaac Bruce) is 30 points over the season, or about 2 points/week. Those points matter, but at that point it becomes less imperative to take a WR with my next pick, and I may move to TE or QB, depending on the talent available.

Well said Ben. I could not think of how to say exactly what you said there. Basically, I look for similar valued players (tiers).

An example:

In one draft where I had pick #12 in a 12 team (so 2 picks in a row each time, then a 24 pick wait), my first seven rounds went: RB, RB, WR, RB, WR, WR, QB

It went this way because I thought at 12 and 13 I had a chance at 2 of the 3 last Tier 3 RBs. In round 3, I thought Roy Williams was the only Tier 1 WR left, so I took him over a top QB. I took a RB with the next pick because I thought there were only two legitimate #3 RBs left at that point (who were not in committees), and with so many people having taken WRs, I figured I would get atleast one of my targeted WRs, and possibly a top QB. McNabb went in the 5th 3 picks before me. I had him as the last top QB available, so I took two WRs (I thought there were only 5 left in that tier), and grabbed a QB a couple of rounds later. (Who I have as an underrated sleeper) I missed out on a solid backup QB (to play matchups with) 2 rounds later by not expecting a sudden backup QB run, and thus waited for super sleeper (IMO) Jason Campbell in the 13th or 14th round.

[stlouie_lipp]

I use the tier much like JC. And kickers should only go in the last round!

[vinsanity]

Yea I waited until like the 13th round to grab a kicker, Elam.

I was going to nab a Def in the 14th of 15th and clicked the wrong guy (grrr) so of course all the auto draftees went and picked up their backups. Instead of Carolina I have GB *eyeroll*.

Thanks for the Help though guys I think this ended up being a decent team.
QB: Peyton, Pennington
RB: Westbrook, Marshuwn Lynch, Carnell Williams and Tatum Bell
WR: TJ Alphabet, Larry Fitzgerald, Devery Henderson, Calvin Johnson, Isaac Bruce
TE: Shockey
K: Elam
Def: GB

Should I deal one of my RB's for a better DEF? I noticed the difference between the third best and worst was like 60 points - so I'm not tooooo worried about it.

[BenNX74205]

WR: TJ Alphabet

"6th round, TJ Houshamazoo...........TJ Howsyourmama...............put it on the board.











Championship!"

[JCShutout]

Yea I waited until like the 13th round to grab a kicker, Elam.

I was going to nab a Def in the 14th of 15th and clicked the wrong guy (grrr) so of course all the auto draftees went and picked up their backups. Instead of Carolina I have GB *eyeroll*.

Thanks for the Help though guys I think this ended up being a decent team.
QB: Peyton, Pennington
RB: Westbrook, Marshuwn Lynch, Carnell Williams and Tatum Bell
WR: TJ Alphabet, Larry Fitzgerald, Devery Henderson, Calvin Johnson, Isaac Bruce
TE: Shockey
K: Elam
Def: GB

Should I deal one of my RB's for a better DEF? I noticed the difference between the third best and worst was like 60 points - so I'm not tooooo worried about it.

Save your RBs. There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Lynch. In case he falters, you're going to want options to start behind Westbrook.

[BenNX74205]

Yeah, your RB situation is good but not great. Did you take Manning in the 1st round? How many teams are in your league?

If anything, I would try and trade one of your receivers if you really want a defensive upgrade. But I would only really go for Chicago or Baltimore. After that, the differences drop off significantly.

It might be worth it to try and trade lynch and a wr (fitz/alphabet) for like rudi johnson or something of that ilk. Depends on what other teams need, but I would look to shore up RB from your WR depth before worrying about DEF. There may be a surprise DEF still out there on waivers in your league.