OBP vs. Slugging

GatewaySnayke · Post by **GatewaySnayke** » April 17 07, 9:26 pm

We all know that combined, it is the holiest of holy stats -- but which do you think is more important -- home runs and doubles -- or walks, walks and more walks?

I've long been an OBP guy, and it's pretty simple to figure out why. Getting on base = scoring runs. I don't think it's four times as important as Bill James theorized and was printed in "Moneyball."

WHAT SAYETH YOU?!

Asmodai · Post by **Asmodai** » April 17 07, 9:28 pm

stlmark · Post by **stlmark** » April 17 07, 9:32 pm

slugging for me

DynamicDynamite · Post by **DynamicDynamite** » April 17 07, 9:33 pm

im going to go depending on where you are at in the lineup.. if you are a 1,2, 7,8 hitter you want OBP to be high... if you are a 3,4,5,6 hitter I feel slugging should be better cause those are typically your high powered guys...

skmsw · Post by **skmsw** » April 17 07, 9:39 pm

Lineups are looped, so over the course of a season, where you hit does not matter too much -- a handful of runs over 162 games.

OBP and SLG are pretty heavily inter-related; OBP is important because when you use up your outs the game is over. SLG is important because extra base hits are the most efficient way to score.

But to some extent, SLG has OBP already built into it, so it already incorporates both power and not making outs, in a crude way. It is hard to have a really high SLG without also having a serviceable OBP.

And statistically, SLG correlates more closely to runscoring than OBP does (of course, OPS correlates more closely than either alone).

The Third Man · Post by **The Third Man** » April 17 07, 9:56 pm

But to some extent, SLG has OBP already built into it, so it already incorporates both power and not making outs, in a crude way. It is hard to have a really high SLG without also having a serviceable OBP.

And statistically, SLG correlates more closely to runscoring than OBP does (of course, OPS correlates more closely than either alone).

Out of curiosity, do you know the comparison between the RS correlation with IsoP? Since, like you said, SLG already does incorporate elements of OBP.

haltz · Post by **haltz** » April 17 07, 9:57 pm

skmsw wrote:And statistically, SLG correlates more closely to runscoring than OBP does (of course, OPS correlates more closely than either alone).

I'm glad you mentioned this because I meant to ask you before. I have read that 1.8*OBP+SLG correlates most highly with run scoring. Which would make it seem like OBP is the more important component.

I feel like I am missing something here, what is it?

GatewaySnayke · Post by **GatewaySnayke** » April 17 07, 9:59 pm

haltz wrote:
skmsw wrote:And statistically, SLG correlates more closely to runscoring than OBP does (of course, OPS correlates more closely than either alone).
I'm glad you mentioned this because I meant to ask you before. I have read that 1.8*OBP+SLG correlates most highly with run scoring. Which would make it seem like OBP is the more important component.

I feel like I am missing something here, what is it?

Ha, I've read that, too. I believe it's called "Gross Production Average."

haltz · Post by **haltz** » April 17 07, 10:09 pm

GatewaySnayke wrote:
haltz wrote:
skmsw wrote:And statistically, SLG correlates more closely to runscoring than OBP does (of course, OPS correlates more closely than either alone).
I'm glad you mentioned this because I meant to ask you before. I have read that 1.8*OBP+SLG correlates most highly with run scoring. Which would make it seem like OBP is the more important component.

I feel like I am missing something here, what is it?
Ha, I've read that, too. I believe it's called "Gross Production Average."

Yeah Fungoes uses it on their blog a lot. Somewhere on Tango's site he goes pretty in-depth about the 1.8 part, without the part about dividing by four to get the BA-like stat.

Transmogrified Tiger · Post by **Transmogrified Tiger** » April 17 07, 10:15 pm

Hardball Times includes GPA in their player stats.