What has Duncan meant so far?

JL21 · Post by **JL21** » April 17 07, 8:27 am

Exactly what has Chris Duncan meant so far? TFG's comment in the post-game thread, about the Baby Deacon's back hurting from carrying the team, got me to thinking. So let's take a look at everyone's favorite statistic, VORP to see what he's meant.

1. Chris Duncan's VORP of 9.1 is 7th in all of baseball.

2. 10 runs above replacement level = 1 win; the Baby Deacon's already, through just 12 games, been worth almost one win to this team all by himself.

3. The 2nd best hitter's VORP on the team is (this is so painful to type) Adam Wainwright's 2.0, followed by Gary Bennett's 1.9, So Taguchi's 1.3, and Aaron Miles' and Yadi Molina's 0.8. Think about that. Add up every other regular player's VORP (Rolen, Edmonds, Molina, Speizio, Eckstein, Pujols, Kennedy, plus Bennett, the Gooch, and Miles and Wilson for good measure), and you get -4.7. Duncan has outproduced THE ENTIRE REST OF THE TEAM by 13.8 runs- almost a full win and a half.

In short, TFG didn't know how right he was. Without Duncan, this team would be drowning right now. And sure, we can argue all day long about whether or not it'll continue. In fact, that argument happens at GRB almost daily. But nobody can deny that the kid's prodigious power (along with some great pitching performances) is keeping the Cardinals afloat right now.

valley_card22 · Post by **valley_card22** » April 17 07, 8:30 am

Not a shock to this guy. I knew he'd be more Adam Dunn then Bob Hamlin.

He has mad power. Hes getting to a point where hes hitting for some average. Im tellin ya, hes a cornerstone guy.

BenNX74205 · Post by **BenNX74205** » April 17 07, 8:36 am

His power is tremendous. He was second on the team last year in homers in half a season. Don't take that to mean he's gonna hit 45 this year, but he has a lot of pop in that bat. And my eyes (with no stats to back it up) tell me his plate discipline is much improved from last season. About the only downside I've seen from him (his defense included) is the fact that he is 0-3 this season with the bases loaded (and 1-12 career if memory serves from last night's telecast).

He sure doesn't look tired from carrying this team. We just need someone else to join him.

Post by **heyzeus** » April 17 07, 8:36 am

I think it's officially time to see if he can handle lefties.

JL21 · Post by **JL21** » April 17 07, 8:40 am

BenNX74205 wrote:He sure doesn't look tired from carrying this team. We just need someone else to join him.

If Rolen, Pujols, Edmonds, Kennedy.... any of those guys were performing up to their regular level of performance- or in the case of Edmonds, even performing to his expected level of performance (i.e. more 2006 than career numbers), this team might have the best record in the NL right now.

Leeyat · Post by **Leeyat** » April 17 07, 8:54 am

Besides, his defense is NOT that horrible as 2006. ESPN Taiwan broadcasted his great catch tonight, that means something!

Gotta love Baby Duncan!

jim · Post by **jim** » April 17 07, 9:02 am

He's been a horse for this team, no doubt about it.

skmsw · Post by **skmsw** » April 17 07, 9:08 am

RC21 wrote:
BenNX74205 wrote:He sure doesn't look tired from carrying this team. We just need someone else to join him.
If Rolen, Pujols, Edmonds, Kennedy.... any of those guys were performing up to their regular level of performance- or in the case of Edmonds, even performing to his expected level of performance (i.e. more 2006 than career numbers), this team might have the best record in the NL right now.

I'm finally gonna get my predictions posted later today (let's hear it for bureacracy). Out of curiosity, what level of performance do you expect from Rolen, Edmonds, and Kennedy?

BenNX74205 · Post by **BenNX74205** » April 17 07, 9:11 am

RC21 wrote:
BenNX74205 wrote:He sure doesn't look tired from carrying this team. We just need someone else to join him.
If Rolen, Pujols, Edmonds, Kennedy.... any of those guys were performing up to their regular level of performance- or in the case of Edmonds, even performing to his expected level of performance (i.e. more 2006 than career numbers), this team might have the best record in the NL right now.

I agree 500%. If we could get any of those guys going at least close to where they should be/will be at the end of the year, the Cards would probably only have 2/3 losses. In the six losses on the year, the opposition has scored 10, 6, 5, 4, 3, and 3 runs. This offense isn't the world-beater of years past, but it is good enough to win games when the opponents score 3 and 4 runs. In fact, that's exactly how this team is built.

JL21 · Post by **JL21** » April 17 07, 9:23 am

skmsw wrote:I'm finally gonna get my predictions posted later today (let's hear it for bureacracy). Out of curiosity, what level of performance do you expect from Rolen, Edmonds, and Kennedy?

Well, I think a hell of a lot better than:

.211/.268/.316 (Rolen)
.235/.316/.265 (Edmonds)
.212/.235/.303 (Kennedy)

I expected Kennedy to be in the .700-.725 OPS range, Rolen to be .850-.900, and Edmonds to be .800-.850. Even if those were optimistic a bit- which I think we're probably in the same ballpark with those three, to be blunt- there's no way anyone could have foreseen all three running up a sub-.600 OPS in their first 100+ AB's.