Coronavirus

Chat about non-baseball topics. No political discussions!
Post Reply
User avatar
cardinalkarp
Hall Of Famer
Posts: 18739
Joined: May 4 06, 8:44 am

Re: Coronavirus

Post by cardinalkarp »

G. Keenan wrote: ↑
July 29 21, 9:48 am
cardinalkarp wrote: ↑
July 29 21, 9:06 am
ghostrunner wrote: ↑
July 29 21, 8:21 am
I thought this was helpful in explaining the infections among vaccinated people and the change in risk after vaccination. I think it could be designed a little better, but it made sense after looking at it for a minute.

Basically 2 shots seems to drop your risk to that of someone about 20-30 years younger. So you can still die from it and it's still more likely if you're older, but the odds go way down.

If I've got it right, out of a million 80 year olds that comes out to going from 10,000 deaths to about 1500
Out of a million 70 year olds, from 5000 to 250
etc...

Image
My math could be wrong but in the US w/ it’s deaths being at 610,000 and it’s population being 330,000,000 you basically have a .0018 chance of dying from COVID. Of course that number is misleading, since the older and unhealthier you are the greater risk of severe symptoms/death.
Well no, because not all 330,000,000 million people have been infected. I think you need to re-run that calculation using deaths among reported infections.
Ahhhh, I knew I was missing something.

Actually, now that I think about it the .0018 is correct. To get the actual chance of contracting COVID and dying from it as an individual you would use the entire population.

User avatar
Joe Shlabotnik
Hall Of Famer
Posts: 24288
Joined: October 12 06, 2:21 pm
Location: Baseball Ref Bullpen
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Joe Shlabotnik »

Leroy wrote: ↑
July 29 21, 10:08 am
I think just keep telling people that they are stupid and borderline criminal for not getting vaccinated. That should get them to come around.
I bet not. But venting is therapeutic for me. I'm selfish that way.

User avatar
ghostrunner
GOAT
Posts: 30868
Joined: April 18 06, 9:40 pm

Re: Coronavirus

Post by ghostrunner »

cardinalkarp wrote: ↑
July 29 21, 9:06 am

My argument in not getting the vaccine has never been that it doesn’t help mitigate symptoms, I think it’s pretty clear it does that. But it’s also not nearly effective as what they thought it was going to be at keeping you from contracting/transmitting. They have some short term data (and one could say it’s relatively safe, but IMO they are sweeping lots of vaccine issues right under the rug), but when it comes to them saying it’s safe long term, it’s a total hypothesis….they have ZERO clue.
I guess my question is how would you know when they did have a clue? If they said good enough after 2 years, would that be satisfactory? How do we know nothing happens ten years later? Ultimately I don't personally know the answers, and the people I'd depend on to know are the same people currently saying these vaccines are worthwhile.

I would say from what I have read, MRNA (as clearly as it can be for someone at my knowledge level) doesn't seem like the kind of thing that is likely to lead to long term issues. This is pretty representative of what I've read:

https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-update ... 19-vaccine
The Pfizer/Biotech and Moderna mRNA vaccines contain an mRNA molecule wrapped in a lipid nanoparticle (LNP) envelope. The LNP is a biodegradable ball of fat with a half-life of about two hours. It lasts just long enough to protect the mRNA from degrading before it enters your cells. The mRNA itself is a blueprint — detailed instructions for the cells to create harmless pieces of a specific spike protein that’s found on the surface of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Once the mRNA uses the body’s cells to make this spike protein piece, the mRNA also degrades and disappears, as mRNA always does.

In mammalian cells, mRNA lifetimes range from several minutes to several days. The mRNA molecule in a COVID-19 vaccine begins to disintegrate after about six hours and is completely gone in 48. Meanwhile, your body recognizes that the spike protein doesn’t belong and starts creating antibodies to remove it. These are the same kind of antibodies you would make during a natural COVID-19 illness, and it prepares your immune system to fight the actual virus if you encounter it.

“After two days, there’s nothing left of the mRNA, and the lipid envelope is long gone,” Stuopis emphasizes. “Nothing sticks around to cause problems in the future. And while the mRNA inserts itself into the body’s cells and uses the cellular machinery to create that harmless piece of spike protein, it cannot possibly affect your DNA, because it never enters the cell’s nucleus, where your DNA resides.”
We're not talking about something like thalidomide, where a chemical was introduced that led to birth defects. We're just reprogramming cells to be prepared to fight the virus before we get it, just as they would if we actually caught it. The biggest risks appear to be short term reactions like infection. The article mentions some occurences of myocarditis, that appear to be treatable.

User avatar
cardinalkarp
Hall Of Famer
Posts: 18739
Joined: May 4 06, 8:44 am

Re: Coronavirus

Post by cardinalkarp »

Honestly, I’m tired of going in the round and round circles of here’s why you say it’s safe and good/here’s why I think it’s potentially unsafe and harmful.

You guys do you, and I’ll continue to remain cautious and respectful when I rarely go out by wearing a mask and social distancing. I will continue to do my part in lieu of the vaccine, and I truly feel that is the way out of this for the vaccinated and unvaccinated. I know that doesn’t make everyone happy, nor does that approach work for everyone, but it works for me at the current moment.

I’ll continue to feel our government has botched this completely along every step of the way and continues to do so in the potential mandates of vaccine as well as their constant changing of minds on “wear a mask; okay, it’s safe not to wear a mask; oops wear a mask again!” People should be looking at our government when blaming someone for this disaster we’re currently in, not the unvaccinated.

User avatar
Popeye_Card
GRB's most intelligent & humble poster
Posts: 31079
Joined: April 17 06, 11:25 am

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Popeye_Card »

cardinalkarp wrote: ↑
July 29 21, 10:10 am

Actually, now that I think about it the .0018 is correct. To get the actual chance of contracting COVID and dying from it as an individual you would use the entire population.
But that is part of the issue. If we continue to have a large portion of the population remain unvaccinated, your chance of contracting the virus at some point starts to approach 100% because it never goes away.

Also, a 0.18% chance of dying from something sounds pretty good. About 2 out of every 1000. But let's think about that another way. If the Cardinals ran some demented promotion where every fan is given a bobblehead doll. 80 of those bobblehead dolls will explode at the bottom of the 5th inning, and kill the person holding it.

In addition, the Cardinals are also allowing fans to receive a free device provided by our friends at Monsanto, which encapsulates the bobblehead doll and provides a 99% survival rate for the person holding that encapsulated doll if it does explode.

If you are attending that game, wouldn't you take the free Monsanto encapsulation device?

User avatar
G. Keenan
Sucking on the Rally Nipple
Posts: 23718
Joined: April 16 06, 6:03 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: Coronavirus

Post by G. Keenan »

It basically all comes down to trust, like everything else in life really. If you don't trust the government or don't trust the companies involved for whatever reasons, no amount of data or time elapsed will change your mind.

User avatar
cardinalkarp
Hall Of Famer
Posts: 18739
Joined: May 4 06, 8:44 am

Re: Coronavirus

Post by cardinalkarp »

G. Keenan wrote: ↑
July 29 21, 11:41 am
It basically all comes down to trust, like everything else in life really. If you don't trust the government or don't trust the companies involved for whatever reasons, no amount of data or time elapsed will change your mind.
That’s very true, and neither of which you mention have given people much reason to trust them as of late (or ever for that matter).

AWvsCBsteeeerike3
"I could totally eat a pig butt, if smoked correctly!"
Posts: 27574
Joined: August 5 08, 11:24 am
Location: Thinking of the Children

Re: Coronavirus

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

Idk where this will drop on the video but whatever. New public health emergency in Arkansas pending the legislative approval due to...lack of hospital capacity. Lol.

Also, for the first time the doh released vax/nonvax numbers which fall in line with the general cdc consensus.

Though unless they’re are a metric [expletive] ton of kids skewing the numbers, I don’t trust them. It’s taken them almost a month since their last press conference to come up with this information. They discontinued the weekly pressers unannounced when the outbreak started and the numbers are way outside the ones I’ve seen. And even with 40% vaxxed we are seeing cases similar to our peak. [expletive] doesn’t make sense.

Only way it makes sense is if vaxxed people are transmitting if not getting sick.

Here’s the presser.

https://youtu.be/JpwZAen_WX8

Freed Roger
Seeking a Zubaz seamstress
Posts: 26073
Joined: September 4 07, 1:48 pm
Location: St. Louis

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Freed Roger »

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote: ↑
July 29 21, 6:48 pm
Idk where this will drop on the video but whatever. New public health emergency in Arkansas pending the legislative approval due to...lack of hospital capacity. Lol.

Also, for the first time the doh released vax/nonvax numbers which fall in line with the general cdc consensus.

Though unless they’re are a metric [expletive] ton of kids skewing the numbers, I don’t trust them. It’s taken them almost a month since their last press conference to come up with this information. They discontinued the weekly pressers unannounced when the outbreak started and the numbers are way outside the ones I’ve seen. And even with 40% vaxxed we are seeing cases similar to our peak. [expletive] doesn’t make sense.

Only way it makes sense is if vaxxed people are transmitting if not getting sick.

Here’s the presser.

https://youtu.be/JpwZAen_WX8
What is funny? I don't get the joke.

Do rural MO and AR unvaccinated rates not correspond to the outbreak and hospitalization rates?

FWIW, - the narrative that can be told to the public by public officials can be wrong. The boilerplate exceptions to every official statement would take two hours to read in every pronouncement. But who is going to read it. I didn't watch the presser for instance.

Are vaccines ineffective?
Last edited by Freed Roger on July 29 21, 9:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Freed Roger
Seeking a Zubaz seamstress
Posts: 26073
Joined: September 4 07, 1:48 pm
Location: St. Louis

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Freed Roger »

Cox Hospital Springfield MO

Current Hospitalized Covid patients 166
On ventilators 26
Youngest - age 4
Oldest - 93
Under 30 y/o - 10
Under 50 - 39
Dead in July - 78

Australia total Covid deaths 922.

Post Reply