Coronavirus

[mikechamp]

Apologies for the "old" news. I'm getting caught up on interesting news to share with all of you. The article below is from last Friday.

Sounds like things aren't going so well overseas:

Europe in meltdown as Covid death tolls soar and progress unravels

Europe is in meltdown again as daily Covid death tolls reach record highs and countries scramble to expand testing and rescue hospital systems that are buckling under the pressure.

Health experts warn that despite hopeful news with a vaccine rollout starting in the UK, drastic action is still needed to save lives as coronavirus tears through nations attempting to regain some semblance of normality.

Russia and Germany reported record daily Covid-19 deaths on Friday, and October was Russia's deadliest month in a decade. Stockholm's intensive care units hit 99% capacity as Sweden proposed a spring "pandemic law" to potentially force closures of certain public spaces. And France said its lockdown would not be eased as planned on Tuesday after daily case numbers rose on Thursday compared with last week.

https://www.kmov.com/europe-in-meltdown ... c1a56.html

[mikechamp]

If nothing else, AW might find this interesting:

Covid: Genes hold clues to why some people get severely ill

Why some people with coronavirus have no symptoms and others get extremely ill is one of the pandemic's biggest puzzles.

A study in Nature of more than 2,200 intensive care patients has identified specific genes that may hold the answer. They make some people more susceptible to severe Covid-19 symptoms. The findings shed light on where the immune system goes wrong, which could help identify new treatments.

These will continue to be needed even though vaccines are being developed, says Dr Kenneth Baillie, a consultant in medicine at the Royal Infirmary in Edinburgh, who led the Genomicc project. "Vaccines should drastically decrease the numbers of covid cases, but it's likely doctors will still be treating the disease in intensive care for a number of years around the world, so there is an urgent need to find new treatments."

Scientists looked at the DNA of patients in more than 200 intensive care units in UK hospitals. They scanned each person’s genes, which contain the instructions for every biological process - including how to fight a virus. Their genomes were then compared with the DNA of healthy people to pinpoint any genetic differences, and a number were found - the first in a gene called TYK2.

“It is part of the system that makes your immune cells more angry, and more inflammatory,” explained Dr Baillie. But if the gene is faulty, this immune response can go into overdrive, putting patients at risk of damaging lung inflammation.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54832563

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

I've been looking at the case numbers and hospitalization counts for Missouri this morning. I think we're far enough out from Thanksgiving that if we were going to see a huge spike from the holiday that it would be showing up by now. Instead, it looks like we're either holding about steady or dropping every so slightly. Maybe the holiday spike won't be as bad as we were fearing. Am I looking at this right?

I...have no idea. One would think you'd see an increase by now if one were going to appear, but who knows. If I were to make an argument that there was a spike created, it would go along the lines of the majority of new cases were among those that are asymptomatic and didn't get tested. As such, there's no demonstrable increase in cases as of yet, but those that are infected are now spreading it a/presymptomatically and those numbers will be seen imminently. It assumes that, well, the percent of new cases are atypical of the hundreds of thousands of cases previously identified cases, so it's a pretty weak argument...

We kind of talked a little about how many people would be infected over the coming months and just held it steady at whatever the number was last month. But, at some point, sadly, we're approaching an amount of people infected that can start to impact new cases. Just looking at MO numbers, it's something like 60K cases per million people. Take into account the CDC 'correction factor' of 7-8 such that instead of 60K cases per million people, the actual infection rate is more along th elines of 420-480K per million people, or just about 40-50%. Obviously that's a guesstimate, but also it's the best we can due based on what the CDC has given.

If natural infection confers immunity, even for 3-6 months, and the majority of infections have occurred in that time frame, it's not impossible that MO has enough immunity in the citizenship to slow the spread. This is all speculation. But, as noted, herd immunity is not a black/white line rather various shades of grey. If MO is at, say, 50% naturally infected, it's going to be tough to continue on a path of uncontrolled spread since half the citizens have immunity. I'd also guess there would be some type of overlap between those that have been infected and those that are most likely to get it....that's a broad brush to paint with though...

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

If nothing else, AW might find this interesting:

Covid: Genes hold clues to why some people get severely ill

Why some people with coronavirus have no symptoms and others get extremely ill is one of the pandemic's biggest puzzles.

A study in Nature of more than 2,200 intensive care patients has identified specific genes that may hold the answer. They make some people more susceptible to severe Covid-19 symptoms. The findings shed light on where the immune system goes wrong, which could help identify new treatments.

These will continue to be needed even though vaccines are being developed, says Dr Kenneth Baillie, a consultant in medicine at the Royal Infirmary in Edinburgh, who led the Genomicc project. "Vaccines should drastically decrease the numbers of covid cases, but it's likely doctors will still be treating the disease in intensive care for a number of years around the world, so there is an urgent need to find new treatments."

Scientists looked at the DNA of patients in more than 200 intensive care units in UK hospitals. They scanned each person’s genes, which contain the instructions for every biological process - including how to fight a virus. Their genomes were then compared with the DNA of healthy people to pinpoint any genetic differences, and a number were found - the first in a gene called TYK2.

“It is part of the system that makes your immune cells more angry, and more inflammatory,” explained Dr Baillie. But if the gene is faulty, this immune response can go into overdrive, putting patients at risk of damaging lung inflammation.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54832563

Thanks for posting. As noted before, so much useful information is being discovered/unearthed, and a lot of it will be useful for long after covid is behind us. It really is amazing.

[mikechamp]

Just so everyone is aware before getting the vaccine:

COVID-19 vaccine: Fever, headache are normal side effects, experts say

But as the rollout of the vaccine begins, experts are cautioning about a potential set of reactions that some may experience after getting the shot — including fever, fatigue and muscle aches. All reactions in the Pfizer trial were characterized as mild or moderate, and reportedly resolved within a few days. And the reactions, experts say, are not only normal, but signs that the vaccine is performing its desired goal.

In an earlier interview with Yahoo Life, Dr. Florian Krammer, a renowned professor of vaccinology at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, explained why. “You may get elevated temperature, headache or muscle aches. What happens there is that your innate immune system recognizes that there's something in your body that doesn't belong there and sounds the alarm,” Krammer said. “If you feel sick, it’s not because a virus is infecting you, it’s because the vaccine is triggering [an immune response].”

Dr. Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, agrees. “Fever is a normal side effect of vaccination and is something to expect after you get this vaccine,” Adalja, who may be getting the vaccine as soon as next week, tells Yahoo Life. “It is a sign of the immune system reacting to the vaccines, so it’s a sign that the vaccine is performing its intended function.”

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/covid-1 ... 13387.html

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

I've been looking at the case numbers and hospitalization counts for Missouri this morning. I think we're far enough out from Thanksgiving that if we were going to see a huge spike from the holiday that it would be showing up by now. Instead, it looks like we're either holding about steady or dropping every so slightly. Maybe the holiday spike won't be as bad as we were fearing. Am I looking at this right?

I...have no idea. One would think you'd see an increase by now if one were going to appear, but who knows. If I were to make an argument that there was a spike created, it would go along the lines of the majority of new cases were among those that are asymptomatic and didn't get tested. As such, there's no demonstrable increase in cases as of yet, but those that are infected are now spreading it a/presymptomatically and those numbers will be seen imminently. It assumes that, well, the percent of new cases are atypical of the hundreds of thousands of cases previously identified cases, so it's a pretty weak argument...

We kind of talked a little about how many people would be infected over the coming months and just held it steady at whatever the number was last month. But, at some point, sadly, we're approaching an amount of people infected that can start to impact new cases. Just looking at MO numbers, it's something like 60K cases per million people. Take into account the CDC 'correction factor' of 7-8 such that instead of 60K cases per million people, the actual infection rate is more along th elines of 420-480K per million people, or just about 40-50%. Obviously that's a guesstimate, but also it's the best we can due based on what the CDC has given.

If natural infection confers immunity, even for 3-6 months, and the majority of infections have occurred in that time frame, it's not impossible that MO has enough immunity in the citizenship to slow the spread. This is all speculation. But, as noted, herd immunity is not a black/white line rather various shades of grey. If MO is at, say, 50% naturally infected, it's going to be tough to continue on a path of uncontrolled spread since half the citizens have immunity. I'd also guess there would be some type of overlap between those that have been infected and those that are most likely to get it....that's a broad brush to paint with though...

Kind of expanding on this cuase it really got me thinking, along with Joe's post in the political thread when talking about ND/SD.

If you go to worldometers and sort the states by cases/million, and then compare it to the Rt live, there's a lot of states higher on the cases/million and lower on the Rt live website. I don't think Rt live is a very long timeframe (and as such may be influenced heavily by pockets within a state), maybe a couple days but I don't really know. Regardless, it's worth keeping an eye on giving what little we know. As of now, and this changes daily so take it fwiw, the only states with an rt less than 1 are states above the US average of cases/million along with michigan and new jersey, both of which are likely drastically undercounted given their early outbreaks when testing was limited.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

https://rt.live/

That's not to say we have rounded a corner or anything even remotely close. Just an observation, and if you're thinking about 'herd immunity' from natural infections, may offer food for thought about where individual states are...not saying that's what's happening, but I found it interesting.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... li=BBnb7Kz

The wholesale supermarket will "begin offering the general public COVID-19 vaccinations at its in-store pharmacies around early spring," CEO Craig Jelinek said to CNBC.

Not major news, and its inline with what Fauci has already said publicly. But, it does reiterate that it sounds like late March/early April (Fauci's words) are when vaccines will be rolled out en masse to the public. Say one month to get everyone a single dose. Obviously not all at Costco but across the board. IFF it's with Johnson and Johnson's that would be a single dose. If it's one of the three out there now (AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Moderna) it's a double dose, so that would be an additional month to get the 2nd dose. But you're looking at everyone possibly being vaccinated (at their discretion) and the vaccines being effective by the end of May.

Then it just becomes a question of how many will get vaccinated and how long with the vaccines be effective. Really, the question becomes, uh, will they need a huge stockpile of vaccines available for the fall season as the antibodies will be waning at exactly the wrong time if there is a mass vaccine program in April.

I guess you'll be able to watch those 30K cumulatively that were vaccinated between Moderna/Pfizer in the phase 3 trials. And, see if, after 6 months, they start to get symptomatic infections. But, 1. that's not a lot of people, and they were 2. vaccinated in what October? So, say the antibodies fade April...yeah, right around the time the seasonal change helps reduce covid cases, everyone is being vaccinated, and tons of natural infections have already occurred?

Uh huh. That doesn't sounds like a promising plan. Even though it goes against the ethical code, they may need to actively infect some of those healthy among the 30K and monitor closely to see what fall 2021 has in store...

[mikechamp]

I caught this 4-minute report last night, and it poses some very interesting questions (once you get past the basic info & questions):

[Leroy]

There is a calculator that estimates your changes of death when compared to the totaljih population here:https://covid19risktools.com:8443/riskcalculator
I was in the lease than average risk even with health issues and being kinda old. I really have to wonder why this is such a [expletive] to the elderly compared with everyone else.

On our end, I'm still symptom free after at least 11 days since exposure and a week since diagnosis. Shelly actually goes back to work tomorrow. She still has flame ups of symptoms but not as bad and taste and smell is slowly coming back.

[Fat_Bulldog]

I'm glad you're doing well Leroy!