St. Louis Blues 2010 Regular Season Thread

[TheoSqua]

The defense has been a lot better thus far. They are only allowing 25.2 shots per game compared with 30.2 last year. If we hold SV% constant at last year's level of .912 (by Mason and Conklin) we see that the shot difference accounts for 0.44 less goals per game against. Over 82 games that is a 36 goal difference or about 12 points in the standings.

The goalies have a .936 SV% this year compared with .912 last year. Using this year's shot total of 25.2 per game, the goalies have allowed 0.60 less goals per game than last year or 50 goals over the whole year. That is 17 points in the standings.

Halak's SV% will regress to his normal level of .915-.925, but its possible the difference in shots allowed is real. I don't know what leads to shots allowed, but its possible blocked shots, giveaways, and takeaways may have some effect. Here is how those stats compare with our per game rates last year.

Code: Select all

Stat      09-10   10-11
-----------------------
BlkSht    12.9    13.1
GvAwy     6.7     5.2
TkAwy     6.7     6.7

So our blocked shots are up (good), giveaways are down (good), and takeaways are the same. If we only allowed 25.2 shots per game this year, I think we are a 108 point team. They certainly look like they're that good, thus far.

The only problem is the division. The central looks like a real beast this year and it wouldn't surprise me if all 5 teams made the playoffs.

That's been the case for several years. If The Blues were in the Southeast division we'd likely have been in the playoffs 3-4 years in a row.

[st.lewis11]

I think a lot of it is the way this team manages puck possession now. It's a lot harder to make shots when the Blues have the puck in your zone half the game.

I can't believe that no stat site or the NHL doesn't track zone possession. TOI is tracked, it shouldn't be too much harder to split that between defensive/neutral/offensive zone. But if I had to guess, this year the Blues are spending a lot more time in the opponents side of the rink than last year. There's been several occasions where the Blues seem like they have a power play on 5v5 when they keep the puck in the offensive zone for 2 minutes.

I've noticed this as well; great observation, Theo.

[BigDCardlvr]

They seem faster than the other teams too.

[st.lewis11]

They seem faster than the other teams too.

Yes they do......they also seem more confidentand aggressive in taking chances, especially with Halak manning the posts behind them.

[MrCrowesGarden]

They seem faster than the other teams too.

Yes they do......they also seem more confidentand aggressive in taking chances, especially with Halak manning the posts behind them.

I would still feel better with a bona fide goal scorer, but I'm much more optimistic after just these first few games.

[thrill]

I would still feel better with a bona fide goal scorer, but I'm much more optimistic after just these first few games.

Yeah I think an elite goal scorer is whats going to get them to Cup contender level.

[st.lewis11]

What a difference a week makes. Mizzou loses, then the Blues are down 3 to 1 after the first.

[Popeye_Card]

What a difference an hour makes. McClement with the hat trick, and the Blues win in a shootout.

Both shootout goals were niiiiiiiice. Oshie with the sick deke, and Boyes snipes it right past the glove.

[Popeye_Card]

Postscript: has there ever been a hat trick where you so unsure as to who scored until you saw the replays? A tip where he's knocked over in front of the goal. A tip-in on a shot that danced across the goal line. And a tip on a boomer by Jello.

[st.lewis11]

That comeback was awesome and fun to watch. The crowd was really into it.
And Popeye, you're right about Jmac's hat trick.
I loved John Kelly's quip at the end of the game, about us getting a "trick" on Halloween night.