Update: HOLLIDAY A CARD 7yr/120 million, p178

[Swingingbunt]

Shelby Miller, meet Kyle Lohse. Kyle Lohse, meet Shelby Miller. Shelby, this is why you can't suck. Money saved, problem solved.

If Shelby Miller is a MLB pitcher before the end of Kyle Lohse's contract, we should all be doing cartwheels.

Oh I agree completely. I'm just agreeing that our scouting guys have the pressure on them now. We can't be giving out $40MM contracts to guys like Lohse now. It's going to have to come from within with the occasional FA signing.

[TimeForGuinness]

Shelby Miller, meet Kyle Lohse. Kyle Lohse, meet Shelby Miller. Shelby, this is why you can't suck. Money saved, problem solved.

If Shelby Miller is a MLB pitcher before the end of Kyle Lohse's contract, we should all be doing cartwheels.

They need to draft about 3-4 more Shelby Millers in the next few drafts. Pitching will always buy you position players (IMHO), you can never have enough.

[clevername]

Shelby Miller, meet Kyle Lohse. Kyle Lohse, meet Shelby Miller. Shelby, this is why you can't suck. Money saved, problem solved.

If Shelby Miller is a MLB pitcher before the end of Kyle Lohse's contract, we should all be doing cartwheels.

They need to draft about 3-4 more Shelby Millers in the next few drafts. Pitching will always buy you position players (IMHO), you can never have enough.

yep.

Sometimes I wonder how efficient it would be to just draft hyped pitchers with your first pick each year then try flipping them for actual position players who are close to the majors or already there. Then you don't end up with Pete Kozma's in your system.

[Faceman]

Do we have a Bay vs Holliday comparison anywhere in here? I need some ammunition as to why Holliday was worth that much more than Bay.

[Swingingbunt]

Do we have a Bay vs Holliday comparison anywhere in here? I need some ammunition as to why Holliday was worth that much more than Bay.

Rotoworld had a comparison up last week. I can't link to it from work, but they did an offensive and defensive breakdown that was really good.

[cards2468]

Do we have a Bay vs Holliday comparison anywhere in here? I need some ammunition as to why Holliday was worth that much more than Bay.

defense is a big deal with this
Matt Holliday's projected WAR is around 5-6 while Bay is at 3-4 wins.

Holliday is also slightly younger.

[Eephus Speed]

Holliday 2007-2009: 20 WAR
Cameron 2007-2009: 10.6 WAR
Byrd 2007-2009: 8.6 WAR
Bay 2007-2009: 6.4 WAR
KJohnson 2007-2009: 6.1 WAR

[Swingingbunt]

Is the fact that Holliday's contract isn't backloaded a good thing or a bad thing?

It seems like a good thing to me, but I don't completely understand the meaning behind backloading a contract.

[Eephus Speed]

Nevermind: Steve said it better on the next page.

A heavily backloaded contract can haunt a team. I'll be happy if we're simply paying Holliday $15M per year (with the rest deferred until 2017 and beyond). Perhaps the club felt it was important to make sure Pujols is still the highest paid player on the team.

[mcgee51taguchi99]

The big thing, IMO, is the difference in what ticket sales will be next year compared to if we didn't re-sign him.

I agree, specifically with regard to season ticket sales. The perception of ownership as being cheap probably dinged them pretty hard before 2008 and 2009 in season ticket sales. But fortunately, the club contended both years, which I'm sure helped their walk-up. And they had the All-Star game, which insulated them a little against public backlash via dropped season tickets. At some point, they were going to have to reverse the perception or pay the piper. The Holliday deal reverses the perception.

I agree to a point, however I don't know how much Holliday helps season ticket sales since renewals were due mid-December. Fans had a lot of incentives to keep their tickets the last few years. You had the opening of the new stadium, followed by a championship, immediately followed by the promise of dibs on All-Star Weekend tickets. That's four straight years of incentives to keep season tickets, not to mention the final season at old Busch. The team for the most part has been competitive and employs the best player on the planet. Anyone who has been on the fence about not renewing probably did not jump unless they really couldn't afford it.

Fast forward to this offseason. I have a feeling season renewals (and holiday plans/all-inclusive areas) were really down thus far with 1) the economy the way it is 2) deposits jumping from $100 to $500 per seat 3) another price increase 4) uncertainly as to whether the team will be competitive (read: signing Holliday) and 5) people not having related incentives to do so.