Update: HOLLIDAY A CARD 7yr/120 million, p178

[Michael]

From Olney:

Jason Bay's agent has been calling the Red Sox in an attempt to re-engage in negotiations, writes Nick Cafardo, and the only way to make a deal happen now might be to heavily backload a contract.

One source indicated on Wednesday night that the team has less than $5 million in spending money. Short of blowing up their budget, the only way the Red Sox could work something out with Bay would be to find a way to dump some existing contracts, such as the newly signed Mike Cameron (who would have to lend his permission to such an arrangement).

Only Bay's agent, Joe Urbon, knows exactly what offers or promise of offers he has in hand. The New York Mets have wanted to sign Bay, for sure, but they are picking up the vibes that Bay doesn't want to play for them and they are preparing alternative plans. It's unclear what other teams are engaged on the outfielder.

It's possible that Bay's best offer came during the season, when the Red Sox dangled a four-year, $60 million proposal. That offer was rejected, and it's looking more and more like that was a missed opportunity.

It is from these developments we could draw a New Year's Resolution for agents.

In the current market, there are very few teams spending whopper dollars. The Yankees are capable, for sure -- and the Mets and the Red Sox and the Phillies. The Angels? Not this winter. The Dodgers don't seem to play at that level any more (Manny Ramirez being a special case, given his standard-busting performance late in 2008). The Cubs and Giants have to shed some Soriano and Zito money before they can go back to that stratosphere. The Astros are essentially for sale because of big-money deals that have gone badly; the same could be said for the Rangers. The Cardinals seemed prepared to pay $20 million to a player, but that player's name is Pujols, and maybe not Matt Holliday.

The agent's resolution: If you get a serious nibble from one of those big spenders, and this is where your client wants to play, you cannot -- you will not -- let them off the hook. Because if you lose them, it could be a freefall to the next level, or into a job your client doesn't want.

The Mets have not been in contact with Bay's agent the last couple of days, writes John Harper. Brian Cashman says again: The Yankees are no longer in the market for a big-ticket item, as Marc Carig writes.

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/in ... ney_buster

[Radbird]

From an NBC Sports blog.

Why would the Sox be back in on Jason Bay?

Given that the Red Sox are reportedly making another pass at Jason Bay (or Matt Holliday) despite having the outfield seemingly covered with Ellsbury, Drew and Cameron, what does it tell you about their confidence that David Ortiz will be a productive part of the lineup next year? Last season when Big Papi took his giant swoon, they had no one else around, so they had to keep running him out there. Could having Bay or Holliday in the fold mean that they'd rather have one of them -- or J.D. Drew -- DHing? Whatever the case, I wouldn't necessarily bet my pension on Ortiz returning to All-Star form, so maybe getting another bat makes sense.

Obligatory alternative theory for Red Sox fanboys: getting Holliday or Bay would free up Ellsbury to be dealt to San Diego as part of a package for Adrian Gonzalez. No, I do not think that will happen, but one of the first comments would likely suggest it, and I wanted to preempt it.

[jim]

Why don't we get Jason Bay?

[Eephus Speed]

...the only way the Red Sox could work something out with Bay would be to find a way to dump some existing contracts, such as the newly signed Mike Cameron (who would have to lend his permission to such an arrangement).

Since Cameron is a more valuable player than Bay, that wouldn't make any sense whatsoever.

Obligatory alternative theory for Red Sox fanboys: getting Holliday or Bay would free up Ellsbury to be dealt to San Diego as part of a package for Adrian Gonzalez.

Ellsbury, who is really not that good, better not be the main piece if they do in fact get Gonzalez from SD.

[cards2468]

Why don't we get Jason Bay?

His defense in left is so bad that he's not nearly as valuable as what he'll get. When his asking price is that close to Holliday's, then it would be a much better signing to sign Holliday instead.

[cards2468]

...the only way the Red Sox could work something out with Bay would be to find a way to dump some existing contracts, such as the newly signed Mike Cameron (who would have to lend his permission to such an arrangement).

Since Cameron is a more valuable player than Bay, that wouldn't make any sense whatsoever.

Obligatory alternative theory for Red Sox fanboys: getting Holliday or Bay would free up Ellsbury to be dealt to San Diego as part of a package for Adrian Gonzalez.

Ellsbury, who is really not that good, better not be the main piece if they do in fact get Gonzalez from SD.

I'm thinking the deal would be something like Ellsbury, Buchholz and Anderson/Rizzo which I'd have to strongly consider if I'm SD.

[TGantz]

Ellsbury, who is really not that good, better not be the main piece if they do in fact get Gonzalez from SD.

I had originally started comparing Ellsbury and Schumaker to show how similar they are but wow, the difference in SB is unbelievable (Jacoby-70 Schu-2). But how valuable are those SB because he only scored 9 more times than Schu with over 100 more PA. Hm...

[Eephus Speed]

The Cubs and Giants have to shed some Soriano and Zito money before they can go back to that stratosphere.

The Giants have plenty to spend, and not all of it is going to go to Lincecum, Cain and Sandoval. The Giants, as much as any team, should be pursuing Holliday. The Braves should be, too.

[clevername]

Ellsbury, who is really not that good, better not be the main piece if they do in fact get Gonzalez from SD.

I had originally started comparing Ellsbury and Schumaker to show how similar they are but wow, the difference in SB is unbelievable (Jacoby-70 Schu-2). But how valuable are those SB because he only scored 9 more times than Schu with over 100 more PA. Hm...

that's pretty surprising.

[BigDCardlvr]

Ellsbury, who is really not that good, better not be the main piece if they do in fact get Gonzalez from SD.

I had originally started comparing Ellsbury and Schumaker to show how similar they are but wow, the difference in SB is unbelievable (Jacoby-70 Schu-2). But how valuable are those SB because he only scored 9 more times than Schu with over 100 more PA. Hm...

that's pretty surprising.

I think Steve has done some statistical analysis to show that the stolen base is probably overrated...