Sabermetrics

[Leroy]

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[Michael]

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Would you say this thread is intimidating?

[Leroy]

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Would you say this thread is intimidating?

Yes I would, and I don't care for your tone at the moment.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

But, I'm not at this point going to put sabermetrics above 100+ years of baseball logic.

For the most part, advanced analysis confirms what people already knew. A lot of this isn't news to Earl Weaver, for example. Sometimes, when you look at the numbers it just isn't supported. I think that's fascinating, and shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. If it matters, why can't statisticians find evidence for it?

I too find it fascinating. And, it boggles my mind that there isn't evidence that is readily availble to back up that there is protection from better hitters because I have always heard and thought it makes sense that there is. And, unlike most everything else, what I think isn't matching up with the sabermetrics. Like you said, sabermetrics confirms common sense most of the time. So, it just becomes a case of: Do I think there is something screwy going on with sabermetrics (because let's be honest, they can be flawed) or is something screwy with baseball logic since the beginning of the game. I'm not saying you all aren't right, and the numbers you provide definitely show you to be more correct than I am or baseball logic. I'm just saying I'm a simple peon and there is a game beyond sabermetrics and the people that are involved in that game all pretty much agree that there is such a thing as protection and they talk about it often. So, I tend to agree with them because it is their livelihood and they spend pretty much all of their time thinking about it/analyzing it/making decisions regarding it.

I've heard lots of GMs and managers say things that aren't true. I've heard them say things that I'm pretty sure they know aren't true, and I've heard them contradict each other. I also know that getting better hitters into the lineup is a good thing, no matter what you want to call it.

Yet, in this case, they all are in agreeance. Getting better hitters in a lineup could be the motive and managers know there is no protection but they use it as an excuse to pressure GM's to get guys to "protect" their big names. This could very well be and would make sense. But, why would they not just say we need to boost the offense with a big bat instead of "We need protection for Pujols so he can see more strikes."?

As far as Pujols' power is concerned, it hasn't gone anywhere. New Busch is fairly tough on RH hitters, I believe. Despite that, his ISOP is just 18 pts off his career rate and his HR/FB is less than a percentage off. As far as his overall production goes, he has the HIGHEST EqA of his career.

And this is where I have a bit of a problem with sabermetrics. You can say his power numbers aren't down, and that may be true. But, why have his homeruns (I think he has an average of 42/yr before 07) dipped considerably in 07 (32) and 08 (on pace for 33)? That's over a 20% dip two years in a row. You could say Busch is tough on RH hitters, but he hit 49 in 06 playing in the new Busch. It seems and this is just my view which doesn't mean it's right, that his approach or something has changed since the beginning part of 06. Homeruns, which should be completely independent of everything else if there is no protection, shouldn't fall off at such a considerable rate, should they? He's close to his career HR/FB. While that may be true, doesn't that just mean he's hitting less fly balls?

In my mind, he's one of the best hitters in the game right now, if nto the best, regardless of what the stats or sabermetrics say. And, if he's having his best year, why isn't he the leading candidate for the MVP? If the season ended today, I doubt he'd win it....not to say he doesn't deserve it. But, is it just because the guys with votes don't see the flashy RBI/HR/SB stats? I honestly don't know.

[Leroy]

I just figured out what your name means AW.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

I just figured out what your name means AW.

Best. Moment. Ever.

Way more intense than Inge.

[wart57]

I just figured out what your name means AW.

Best. Moment. Ever.

Way more intense than Inge.

Wicked curve, glad I saw that instead of seeing it in a box score...... Just teasing guys!

[Numbers]

This world would be such a better place, and the tone of this thread much friendlier if we would just listen to the Frozen Caveman Lawyer my friends.

[haltz]

But, why would they not just say we need to boost the offense with a big bat instead of "We need protection for Pujols so he can see more strikes."?

I really don't have any idea. Perhaps it's just such a common axiom that it's become GM and manager-speak. Baseball platitudes aren't a new thing, and with exceptions like Jeff Kent, players don't come right out and say how they feel. I know I didn't give a [expletive] about who was hitting behind me, nor did I think it mattered much. Would I say that? Probably not. Not to get all anecdotal, because that's a bad argument, but you get my point. Maybe a lot of them are just wrong.

You can say his power numbers aren't down, and that may be true. But, why have his homeruns (I think he has an average of 42/yr before 07) dipped considerably in 07 (32) and 08 (on pace for 33)?

He's not hitting less flyballs really. He spiked in 2003 and 2006, but he's right around his averages again. You're working off a peak homer year for him. He's on pace for 37 in 161 games (41 avg) and is taking more walks, along with the park factors I mentioned. Also, Ludwick, Ankiel and Glaus have been pretty good this year hitting behind him.

Pujols is pictured on the front page of ESPN's MLB section in an NL MVP article. And if he doesn't win, that just means that they writers gave it to another ~equally deserving play (Utley and Berkman in my estimation) or that they are stupid. That wouldn't be news. They gave Rollins an MVP award after all.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Also, Ludwick, Ankiel and Glaus have been pretty good this year hitting behind him.

which is obviously why he is going to hit more homeruns than last year.