Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus (Update: Finalized!)

[planet planet]

He was a 3-win player including defense, and that's worth $12M.

This might be from a few years ago, but I thought a win was worth approx. $2 million?

[tenniseleven]

it's fairly apparent that we weren't going to get fair value for Rolen in terms of young talent...which is what we desperately need..

Rolen, essentially had the same value as Andruw Jones last season, yet Andruw is considered a value at 18M per year, while Rolen is considered overpaid at 12M per year...

like the American public, the general baseball fandom can be told what to think is reality...
that's just common sense, though, as most persons have to worry to much about how to put food on the table and pay the waaaaay to high mortage payment rather than to think...

considering that we weren't going to get good young talent for Rolen, and considering that he absolutely didn't want to be here, I'd say that this trade was a push...

this trade will sell more tickets to the general fan than a trade for a couple decent young players would have, and that is the bottom line...

[haltz]

I think that was what MGL considered a really good deal a couple of years ago. It costs $4.4M to replace a win on the free agent market today. And yeah, baseball inflation.

[EastonBlues22]

I would characterize these statements as speculative medical analysis:

Either is fine...an injury to a joint like that is going to take more than a few months of rehab to return to full strength and no one should have expected Rolen to be 100% for a full season in 2006. The fact that he put up an average season post-surgery (especially the first year back) is actually a wildly encouraging sign in the grand scheme of things.

He (stupidly) thought he could play through some soreness in 2007 and his condition and production degenerated accordingly as he "tweaked his mechanics" to compensate. That was dumb, and it showed. Still, there was no additional structural trauma that needs to be overcome, and really the outlook for 2008 isn't nearly as bleak as most people are making it out to be.

It is not speculation that it takes more than a few months of rehab to re-establish full strength and functionality for a complex joint. That's a medical fact. I suppose my "analysis" of his 2006 is rightfully interpreted as mere speculation...but if you wouldn't call it encouraging, then what would you objectively call it?

Rolen admitted with no prompting from me that he handled things poorly (with regards to his shoulder) in 2007. We know that things started with soreness/fatigue and progressed to a loss of ROM and tweaked mechanics...that's been confirmed independely from me through the organization and Rolen himself. They also said that there was no additional structural damage found in the shoulder from 2007.

I guess the speculation comes in at "the outlook for 2008 isn't nearly as bleak as most people are making it out to be" but I stand by that analysis and the reasoning/facts that are behind it even though I readily admit they are hardly conclusive evidence.

For the record, I have yet to hear a detailed and thought out explanation offered by anyone why his long term shoulder prognosis should be drastically poorer for 2008 than it was heading into 2006 or 2007.

[greenback44]

My main thought on this is that it's not nearly as ugly a salary dump as the Edmonds deal. There's a decent, though less than 50/50 IMHO, chance that Glaus and his successor are better than Rolen over the next three years. I've been conditioned to accept this kind of crap, I guess. After you posted the link about Rolen's home going up for sale, I was preparing for something substantially worse than Troy Glaus in 2008.

No it isn't, but I'm more concerned about the upper bounds here. There's some chance that any 3B in the league will be better than Rolen. I don't really care about that, and I don't really care that DeWitt wants to save himself some money. I just don't think it will translate to wins.

My salary dump comment depends on what happens with the money and option I guess.

I'm sure the accountant in Mozeliak is happy with this move. Yes, in the ideal scenario they could've kept Rolen, and the Cardinals at times this winter made noises to suggest they'd do that, but if there's anything at all to Rolen's unhappiness with LaRussa et al (it's not an easy time to defend LaRussa or his return), this wasn't a real possibility. With that taken for granted, I don't see how Mozeliak the team-builder could've done anything better upside-wise for the roster. Furthermore, from my couch Rolen:Paletta::Reyes:Duncan. For whatever reason, Paletta didn't seem to be effective with Rolen, or maybe it was the case that Rolen didn't know how to make Paletta effective. That's not intended as a criticism of Paletta's competence, since I'm not so bold as to think I can judge that or that I should even try.

Will Carroll plays an actuary playing a doctor. It's an odd role he's created for himself.

I'd like to see a study comparing Will Carroll, and let's say an orangutan picking red, yellow, and green lights.

Some of the red lights are such gimmes (Mulder) that the orangutan would have to be the injury equivalent to Marcel the Monkey.

Oh, and if cpebbles isn't Sparkles Peterson, then I believe my goal in life should be to keep the two of them separated to prevent the unleashing of awful cosmic forces. Sparkles needs to update his profile at BTF though.

[maddash]

For what it's worth:

2008 ZiPS Projections

Troy Glaus
.247 .350 .469

Scott Rolen
.255 .331 .397

[Cole Burns]

there are some rumours floating around that the deal could involve other players (namely Burnett)...

QUICK! We need someone at the airport now!!!

[haltz]

Yes, in the ideal scenario they could've kept Rolen, and the Cardinals at times this winter made noises to suggest they'd do that, but if there's anything at all to Rolen's unhappiness with LaRussa et al (it's not an easy time to defend LaRussa or his return), this wasn't a real possibility.

You probably know that I'm not happy with the situation in the first place. But, to be clear, I do view this as a bit of a byproduct, and I'm actually not meaning to slam Mo here. Getting a .290 EQA player for Rolen when Rolen had to go is something.

Some of the red lights are such gimmes

Yeah, I'd like for Carroll to have a sporting chance.

(I'm not really a Carroll hater like some, but I would like to see some data on all these guys that predict injuries and mechanical problems etc.)

[phins]

I don't think any reasonable person who pays attention to baseball stats outside of the big 3 will disagree that Rolen is a far superior player over the course of his career.

I also don't think anyone who watches baseball on more than an occasional level will say that Glaus is anywhere near Rolen with the glove.

But, with the damage to Rolen's shoulder having been done, and very few cases presented to me showing a player to regain their pre-injury levels of play, AND the fact that Rolen clearly doesn't want to be here factored in, I have to say that I'm happy with the trade.

The debate has been solid, and I actually think both sides are right- if that's possible. The overwhelming evidence of their careers shows Rolen to be vastly superior in every way as a baseball player outside of HR power.

My reasons for liking the trade are as follows:

1. Rolen wasn't happy here, TLR wasn't happy with Rolen. The Blazers, Spurs, Pistons, Patriots, etc. have shown us that a hapy clubhouse between management and players (and players on players) does hold some value as far as being reflected on the field. I'll admit there are many cases of teams having players hating each other and still winning, but I think the situation had reach critical mass when TLR said the things he said recently.

2. Glaus kills lefties, and crushes soft tossers. Two things the Cards have struggled with for years.

3. Glaus goes from the talent rich AL East, into the weak NL Central. If you don't think that will help his production, let's just say we disagree.

4. Glaus is much better defensively than given credit for, and my own personal eye ball test tells me that Rolen has been slipping every so slightly in this regard lately. How's that for subjective?

5. We gain some closure to the situation, and infuse a power RH bat into our lineup (Glaus has had better slugging percentages for three years now I believe, by quite a bit overall).

Are the Cards appreciably better in the SABR world? No, they're probably worse, but in the overall scheme of things, I can see this deal helping the Cards to win more games simply by having the cloud of everything lifted for a semi-competent replacement of Rolen.

Good job Mo'

[MrCrowesGarden]

I missed that I guess. I thought it was done.

Here's the latest I could find from ESPN:

The St. Louis Cardinals have reached agreement on a trade with Toronto that will send third baseman Scott Rolen to the Blue Jays for third baseman Troy Glaus, two major league sources said.

The deal will be completed once the two players undergo physical exams Monday, sources said.

Since the trade also includes a financial component, it's also subject to the approval of commissioner Bud Selig. It's uncertain which club is receiving money in the deal, or how much cash is changing hands.

ESPN appears to have updated the story. Glaus agreed to exercise his 2009 option, and the Cardinals don't have to send any money to the Blue Jays.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3193566