40. Wendell Fairley, of
School: George County-Lucedale (Miss.) HS. Class: Sr.
B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 190. Birthdate: 3/17/88.
Scouting Report: Although Fairley's athletic ability and talent were recognized early, he has been somewhat of a mystery to most scouts because he split time between football (as a wide receiver) and baseball in high school. He also never showed interest in playing in showcases. Fairley's tools are unquestioned. He shows ability to hit for average as well as plus power, and his quick lefthanded stroke allows him to pull balls out of the park or line them to left field. He's a plus runner with solid-average arm strength and defensive ability that play perfectly in center field. He's just scratching the surface of his potential, and could develop into a player in the mold of Carl Crawford. As a 19-year-old father, his makeup has been analyzed closely, and he faced charges this season--which were later dropped--for his part in a school-bus prank on a 16-year-old teammate. Because of his limited baseball experience, he's somewhat of a wild card, but because of his tools he could be taken as early as the back of the first round.
AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB
.538 91 26 49 13 3 9 36 13
How many of these guys that you guys are drooling over, and becoming cards talk over, become busts?
Obviously they don't think he's worth the $7MM or whatever just to sign. They paid top dollar for Drew, right?
A lot of teams passed on Porcello. He's no lock.
I really love drafts, but I never get too excited or mad either way on picks, because if you just take a look at Baseball America's top 100 prospects over the last 15 years, about 5 or 6 of them even amount to very good players. Some years, even that's pushing it.
Baseball is unlike Basketball and Football, where it's a better idea of what you're getting. Even there it's really not too many givens. No matter what.
High ceilings does't always equal "great player". In fact, more times then not, it doesn't.
7. Andrew Brackman, rhp
School: North Carolina State. Class: Jr.
B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-10. Wt.: 240. Birthdate: 12/4/85.
Scouting Report: As an awkward 6-foot-7 16-year-old at Cincinnati's Moeller High, Brackman wasn't considered a top 50 prospect in baseball or basketball. His basketball game blossomed as a senior, and when N.C. State offered him a chance to play both sports, he eagerly accepted. A bout with tendinitis assured he wouldn't be drafted highly enough out of high school to buy him out of college, and after giving up basketball as a sophomore (he had thrown just 77 innings in his first two years at N.C. State), he's begun to come into this own. Now a legitimate 6-foot-10, 240 pounds, his upside is considerable. His athleticism helps him repeat his delivery, but he struggles with his balance and release point, leading to erratic command, especially of his secondary stuff. He touched 99 mph in the Cape Cod League in 2006 and again during an early-season outing in Myrtle Beach, S.C., and he pitches at 94 with exceptional plane. His mid-80s spike-curveball is filthy. Brackman's changeup was the pitch that had improved the most this spring, and grades as a third potential plus offering. He's still unrefined, but even without the polish, Brackman shouldn't slide out of the top 10 picks.
31 WAS Josh Smoker lhp Calhoun (Ga.) HS GA
It was apparent Smoker was bound for success when, as a freshman in 2004, he set a school strikeout record with 126 in 62 innings. He broke the record in 2005, when he amassed 137 in 75 innings, helping his team win Georgia's 2-A championship. Smoker was named co-player of the year in the state, sharing the honors with Buster Posey, now at Florida State. He has been a mainstay on the wood bat and showcase tour for years, and has a portfolio as deep as any player in the draft, including college players. He'll warm up with six pitches and uses them all in games, though his 91-92 mph fastball, 74-76 mph curve and low- to mid-80s split-finger fastball are his bread and butter. He also flashes a changeup and slider. When he stays over the rubber and doesn't attempt to overthrow, he shows above-average command of all of his stuff. He'll run his fastball in on righthanders, snap his curve for a swing-and-miss pitch and lean on his splitter for strikeouts, as it at times can be unhittable. He pitches with fervor and guile, endearing himself to teammates and scouts alike. Smoker isn't expected to get much bigger, but he's athletic and durable, profiling as a No. 2 or 3 starter. He could go as high as No. 14 to Atlanta.
2 32 SF Nick Noonan 2b Parker HS, San Diego CA
If Noonan makes it across the country to play at Clemson, scouts will be surprised. He offers one of the most polished bats in the draft and had emerged as San Diego's top prep prospect, evoking comparisons to Phillies star Chase Utley. While he's not likely to hit for as much power as the former UCLA star, Noonan resembles Utley as an above-average lefthanded bat who profiles best at second base. Noonan has plenty of baseball savvy, first and foremost at the plate. He stays balanced, trusts his hands and makes consistent hard contact. Overmatched earlier in his career with wood, Noonan has made adjustments in his swing and shows excellent aptitude. While he's just an average runner, he's a good baserunner and basestealer, and he's a solid defender thanks to good hands and sound footwork. While he doesn't have flashy tools, he's one of the steadiest players in this draft class. A prep shortstop, his fringe-average arm and range profile better on the right side of the bag, and he has more than enough bat to make the move.
3 33 ATL Jon Gilmore 3b Iowa City (Iowa) HS IA
Scouts were excited to see Gilmore this spring after he tore up the showcase circuit last summer, including a double off a Michael Main fastball at the Aflac Classic and a stellar performance at the Area Code Games. But they've had a hard time getting a read on him because he strained a hamstring and has faced weaker-than-usual competition in Iowa. He still might go in the second or third round, but the team that picks him that high will be doing so on the basis of what it has seen in the past. He stands out most for his exceedingly quick bat and his power potential. Gilmore is 6-foot-3 and 190 pounds, and while he's a good athlete who drew interest from college football programs as a quarterback, a move from shortstop to third base is inevitable, either in pro ball or at Wichita State if he doesn't sign. He has the arm strength to make the longer throws from the hot corner, and his bat will play there as well. Gilmore has two brothers-in-law with baseball connections: Ben Zobrist has played in the majors the last two years with the Devil Rays, while Dan Heefner is the hitting coach at Dallas Baptist
.
4 34 CIN Todd Frazier 3b Rutgers NJ
Todd is the third Frazier brother who will be drafted, following Jeff (Mariners) and Charlie (Marlins) in the legacy of the famed Tom's River, N.J., Little League teams of the late 1990s. He has been a three-year starter at Rutgers and carved a reputation as a solid all-around player with a long track record of performance despite a modest tool set. He raised his profile by showing plus power with wood last summer with the college national team, but scouts are apprehensive about his long-term ability to hit for average because of unorthodox swing mechanics. He's a solid-average runner with adequate hands and an average arm, tools that might play at third base or second, but not at shortstop. His instincts and makeup are outstanding, and if he gets to his power as a pro, he'll play his way into a big league lineup. He should be drafted no later than the second round.
