Opening Night: Post Game Thread

[cardfaninfla]

There is no sugar coating that play, it was bad baseball pure and simple. From the moment the ball left the bat I had 100% confidence it was going to be 1st and 3rd, never in my wildest dreams did I expect Eck to be waved home. It didn't even take that good of a throw, he was shallow and has a good arm. Eck was out by 15 feet, 95% of the time Beltran nails him on that. It takes a bad throw to not get him.

I am watching it right now, not only did he have to range about 20 feet to his right, and he's not all that shallow, but he put the ball on the fly, right on the money, just a couple feet up the third base line. From this freeze-frame it looks like he's at least 70 feet beyond the infield dirt. Lo Duca caught the ball when Eckstein was about four feet away (freeze-framed again). Ecsktein also could have made the play harder by diving away from Lo Duca, instead he went straight into him to knock the ball loose (it looks like).

Anyway, I had had a few by the time this happened, but I thought at the time that Beltran doesn't usually make that play, and I still think so now.

Beltran has a gun out there. He makes that play about 80% of the time and that is being conservative. It didn't have to be a perfect throw. I t could have been two feet on teh other side of the plate and without haveing to handle a hop it is an easy play.

[haltz]

Beltran has a gun out there. He makes that play about 80% of the time and that is being conservative. It didn't have to be a perfect throw. I t could have been two feet on teh other side of the plate and without haveing to handle a hop it is an easy play.

No way. I'm literally sitting here watching it. I doubt he even attempts that throw 80% of the time, in fact, a reasonable argument can be made that it was ill-advised. I'm just going to start repeating myself, but there is no way he makes that play 80% of the time.

[jim]

He is transferring the ball into his throwing hand before Eck is at 3rd. I'll back off from my 95% rate, and put it more at 60%. Given that same situation, he is going to throw the runner out more times than not. It was closer than I remember in realtime, and Beltran wasn't as shallow as I thought because he had to angle to his right to get in throwing position.

But here is where Oquendo screwed up. He should be 1/3 to halfway down the line so that he could have put the brakes on after he saw the throw. He's sitting right at the bag, I have no idea why he was doing that. That's just not a good job of coaching by Oquendo, both from the decision making point and the mechanics of coaching 3rd base.

[haltz]

This is just likely to be a difference of opinion on the specifics. I disagree very much on the percentages, but agree that he shouldn't have gone. I didn't notice Oquendo at the bag either, interesting catch.

The real question is, did you go ahead and pull the trigger on MLB.tv?

[skmsw]

He is transferring the ball into his throwing hand before Eck is at 3rd.

That's the part that stood out for me last night (I don't have the tape in front of me).

When Beltran is in shallow to medium CF and positioned to throw -- before an average runner (or a step below) has reached third base -- it's not gonna take a perfect throw to nail the runner pretty handily at the plate, and you can kind've see where the play is headed if the runner proceeds.

[jim]

This is just likely to be a difference of opinion on the specifics. I disagree very much on the percentages, but agree that he shouldn't have gone. I didn't notice Oquendo at the bag either, interesting catch.

The real question is, did you go ahead and pull the trigger on MLB.tv?

Funny, because when I was having trouble finding the video the thought crossed my mind. It was on the highlights section, so it just so happened that I was able to find it after a little searching.

One more thing on that play after looking at it four or five times, the best part of the play was Beltran getting in position. The ball was hit hard and to his right. He has to move laterally to get the ball on his glove side, the way he circled the ball and got his motion going toward homeplate as he ran through it was just textbook.

Nice play by Beltran.

[bronx_bird]

I <3 days off.

:deadhorse:

[jim]

I <3 days off.

:deadhorse:

Picking this stuff apart is what I live for during the season. I don't even care how the play turned out.

[bronx_bird]

I <3 days off.

:deadhorse:

Picking this stuff apart is what I live for during the season. I don't even care how the play turned out.

Yeah, actually I always enjoy going through these discussions when you guys dissect and argue, mostly because I always learn something. Just poking fun a bit.

[raddy]

I honestly don't think Oquendo thought Beltran was going to even try to throw the man out at home--

Took a perfect throw --a lot closer than some say--Mets ahead by 4 i believe and that would have put Wilson in scoring position.