Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

[mikechamp]

These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Mark Polishuk that occurred on November 8.

A lot of questions this week. I also included 3 bonus questions: one about potential progress on the CBA, one about the Veteran's Ballot and one about how we're all getting old. Enjoy the read!!

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/11/ ... t-925.html
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Do the Brewers go against past precedent and extend Contreras? Do they have unexpected additional funds further their extended playoff / WS run?

Mark Polishuk
At the very least, I suspect there’s very little chance Contreras is dealt this offseason. Whether that means the Brewers are open to an extension or they’ll just keep him for another run in 2027 and let him walk next winter remains to be seen.

The extra money from the playoff run certainly helps, but the Brewers might prefer to use that bonus revenue towards extending their next young cornerstone (i.e. Jesus Made) rather than investing in a veteran catcher, even one as important to the organization as Contreras.
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Do the Blue Jays have the money to sign two outfielders? I’m thinking Seiya and Sato. Japan north, so to speak.

Mark Polishuk
Broadly speaking, I think the Jays “have the money” for all sorts of bold moves. Ownership is willing to spend, the team is desperate to win, and some extra reinforcements might be viewed as necessary in the wake of 2026’s disappointment.
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Will the Cardinals sign a free agent pitcher?

Mark Polishuk
Yep! Nobody big, but another version of last year’s Dustin May signing. Maybe even literally Dustin May himself again.
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Who do you think ends up being the Red Sox starting shortstop: Franklin Arias or someone outside of the team such as Elly or C J Abrams?

Mark Polishuk
“Am I a joke to you?” — Trevor Story
Arias being the Opening Day starter wouldn’t shock me, but don’t forget about Story still being under contract. Either of these options seem more likely than a blockbuster deal for Elly (which would have to involve Arias anyway, surely) or going with a real defensive question mark in Abrams.
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The Cardinals have plenty of payroll flexibility. Would they consider taking on Ryan McMahon’s salary for a stop-gap platoon role at 3rd if the Yankees threw in a low-level pitching prospect?

Mark Polishuk
McMahon is owed $16MM next year. The Cardinals will want a better prospect than just a lower-level arm if they’re agreeing to eat all that money.
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Better fit for STL: Bohm or Crawford?

Mark Polishuk
Crawford, as I just think he’s a better player.
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Would the Red Sox be ill advised to package Arias in a deal for a slugger and further deplete their farm system?

Mark Polishuk
I don’t think there’s any chance Arias is dealt unless it’s for an absolutely premium star like Elly. As noted earlier, Arias could viably be in Boston’s Opening Day lineup.
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Will Kanzler successfully lobby for the M’s to add familiar pieces from the Astros or Cubs?

Mark Polishuk
I’d be stunned if the pitching-needy Cubs weren’t already in touch with the M’s about their starters well before Kanzler’s hiring. Trades between the Astros and Mariners will be tougher to swing due to the division rivalry alone.
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The Elly/Arias trade has come up a bit. What else could be included in that trade, established outfield help?

Mark Polishuk
The Reds would justifiably demand a big return for Elly. Beginning with Arias, Cincy could ask for Gonzales (Boston’s top OF prospect) as well, plus an excess starting pitcher with MLB experience. If by “established” outfield help you mean Duran, sure, as a throw-in. But his trade value is low enough that he might just be non-tendered, rather than dealt for anything of real worth.
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Is there a possible Matt Shaw for Will Warren deal to be had here?

Mark Polishuk
That deal makes some sense for both sides. Moving Shaw does create more pressure on the Cubs to address their corner outfield situation, but since the rotation is such a glaring need, Chicago surely wants to get that addressed first.

Or, if they dealt Shaw, maybe the Cubs put more focus on re-signing Suzuki (or Happ).
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Who is the top reliever you could see the Tigers acquiring in the offseason? Is Pagan an option for them?

Mark Polishuk
Pagan makes sense. His homer-allowing tendencies might be kept in check by Fifth Third Park.

(And yes, it’s going take some time getting used to writing that ballpark name.)
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If you had to pick 1-10, 1 being no chance, 10 being he’s currently putting pen to paper we speak, how likely is a Made extension?

Mark Polishuk
Wait, is this question technically WWJD?
Made’s signing bonus was $950K, so substantial but still well short of life-changing money. Maybe he’s open to locking in his first fortune right off the bat with a pre-career extension, or maybe he’s prepared to bet on himself by playing out his arb years and aiming for free agency. Or, Made and his reps might first want to see what the next CBA brings before committing to an extension.
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How weird would it be to have Albert Pujols manage the Astros. Get Yadi as the bench coach while you are at it. Even as an Astros fan, I am here for it.

Mark Polishuk
I’m kinda rooting for Pujols to get the job just out of the sheer novelty of the idea. And hey, as noted earlier with Kanzler, you never know who might emerge as the next great big league manager.
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The Reds are buried in the division and seemingly unwilling to make any big moves. What kind changes could they make that would have the potential to turn things around?

Mark Polishuk
They need to get at least two more real hitters in their lineup, and obviously a lot more health and control from their entire pitching staff.
There are just a few too many holes at this point that it seems unlikely Cincinnati can get enough patched in one offseason to make a real playoff run in 2027.
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Same question, but the Pirates.

Mark Polishuk
Pirates are in a lot better shape than the Reds. There’s a big hole to fill in replacing Lowe (or re-signing him?) but it seems like the Bucs have started to turn the corner here.
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Should the Phillies avoid signing Seiya Suzuki since he comes with a QO and they’d lose a pick that they sorely need to rebuild the farm system?

Mark Polishuk
At this point, it’s now or never for the Phillies. There’s a much better chance that Suzuki will be a good player than there is of this hypothetical draft pick becoming anything close to a Suzuki-level MLB talent.
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Can the Blue Jays convince the Pirates to let go of any of their young arms? Something around Barger, Keys and/or Clement?

Mark Polishuk
Keys doesn’t hold much value, and Clement/Barger’s trade value has taken a significant hit after 2026. Pittsburgh isn’t moving Skenes, Ashcraft, Jones, or Chandler for any of that group. And if you’re the Jays, bringing in Mlodzinski as a back-end starter isn’t worth moving the potential upside of a healthy Barger or a Clement who is more of a part-time role.
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Ian Happ went to UC. Ian Happ praised the area and the Reds front office. Is the writing on the wall?

Mark Polishuk
I’m not sure I’m sold on Happ as a real difference-maker, but he’s definitely an upgrade on the Reds’ current outfield mix.
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If there is somehow a cap floor, it is possible that opens the door for a team like Pittsburgh to actually make an offer to their best players ie Paul Skenes.

Mark Polishuk
The Royals extended Bobby Witt. The Twins extended Joe Mauer. The Reds extended Joey Votto. Nothing is stopping the Pirates from making a huge extension offer to Skenes.
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My BA on questions answered is worse than Kebryan Hayes at the plate.

Mark Polishuk
This one fell in for a solid single!
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Where is Bauers going and what do the Brewers do if he bolts?

Mark Polishuk
There’s a non-zero chance Bauers just takes the qualifying offer. He instantly gets a big payday that he could’ve only dreamed about at this time last year, and yes, $23.15MM is life-changing even by my standards! [/inserts GIF of SpongeBob wearing the monocle and driving the luxury car]

Bauers pockets the money and returns to play for another shot at a World Series. If he posts another good season, he’s in line for the kind of multi-year offers that are already on the table for him this winter.
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Are the Cubs, Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Padres, and Red Sox the only spots who would meet Skubal's price tag or is someone laying in the weeds like the Blue Jays, Mariners, Tigers, or D-Backs?

Mark Polishuk
The Jays are the only realistic suitors of the four dark-horse teams you mentioned. Toronto can’t even really be considered a dark horse given how the Blue Jays have routinely checked in on every big free agent of the last several years. I doubt the Red Sox or Yankees are true suitors. Both have plenty of pitching already, and are in on Skubal probably in the sense that they’re “in on” any big name out of due diligence. Padres may have payroll issues affording Skubal, and Cubs ownership simply doesn’t seem willing to spend at the level it would take to land a Skubal-level superstar.

Maybe he’s the exception for the Cubs, who knows.
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The Angels need more offense, and they need a MLB level outfield (Sorry Siri, Lowe, Teodosio, Campero… Meckler can stay as the 4th outfielder). How about any two of Kwan, Happ, Varsho or Taylor? Or is that a year from plan?

Mark Polishuk
It’s definitely a year away.
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Are there “confidence-building” items that MLB and MLBPA could agree on, or is the first stage of this all muscle?

Mark Polishuk
This isn’t really publicized much, but the two sides are regularly meeting, and will continue negotiating right up until the CBA expires. None of the big-picture details will be settled, of course, but some lower-level items that aren’t directly related to the idea of a salary cap, player movement, etc. might’ve already been agreed upon, for all we know.
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Loaded veterans ballot. Who gets in?

Mark Polishuk
My assumption is that Baker and Bochy are locks. Piniella, Maddon, Sabean, Alderson, and Bill White will get a lot of votes. Ted Turner is the least-likeliest to get in, in my view, but he won’t get shut out on the ballot. Beyond the top two, the sheer number of other good candidates might create enough of a logjam and it’s just Baker and Bochy getting 75 percent of the ballot.

Jayson Stark pointed out in a recent column that voters might take a strategic element to their ballot. If someone thinks Bochy/Baker are locks, they could use their three votes elsewhere, so other candidates can either get over the line, or at least amass enough votes for consideration on the next veterans’ committee ballot for execs and managers.
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Any chance we’ll ever compare the 27′ Yankees to the 27′ Yankees?

Mark Polishuk
(mind blown)
Is it just me, or is it going to be very weird to one day refer to this decade as “the 20’s”?
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[Radbird]

Fifth Third Park? Really??

[obucard]

Bartenders should use that when cutting someone off.

[Popeye_Card]

Fifth Third Park? Really??

LOL. This isn't as shocking to folks in this section of the midwest. I've always been amused by the name but it is one of the largest banks in the US now, and I guess bought Comerica earlier this year.

EDIT: Also, will be fun to not confuse with Fifth Third Field, which has been the name of the Toledo Mudhens' park for a long while (which is Detroit's AAA team).