Dan Szymborski's NL Central comments

[mikechamp]

These comments came from a chat with FanGraphs' writer Dan Szymborski that occurred on July 30. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @DSzymborski.)

This is a debut of one of his chats. Let me know if you like it.

A lot of NL Central questions for only an hour-long chat. I included 5 bonus Q&As as well. Enjoy!

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffe-f ... t-7-28-26/
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You’re the Pirates, you have a pretty great offense, but you can’t hit LHP and the bullpen is a mess. How aggressively do you attack the problem in-season? Does the potential lockout change decision making knowing you loose a season of Skenes in the worst case, making this season more meaningful?

Dan Szymborski
I would be aggressive, but I’m not sure the Pirates actually will be.
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Which contender would benefit most from the addition of Skubal?

Dan Szymborski
Cubs or Padres I think.
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If you’re Cashman are you actually pursuing Herrera given he cannot throw anyone out?

Dan Szymborski
He would not be my favorite catcher to add for the Yankees.
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Hunter Greene on the block, that’s the big Reds news this morning. Color me skeptical.

Dan Szymborski
I am too.
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The trade: K Alcantara, M Shaw and P Ramirez for Skubal. Who says no?

Dan Szymborski
I think Tigers.

I think a Skubal trade, unless the prospects are crazy, will need to involve some lesser pitcher who can go into the 2027 rotation. Which is why in the fantasy trade for it, I sent Sheehan as part of the trade.
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The Cubs have been playing great baseball lately, even with a rotation made of two soft-tossing lefties and a whole lotta nothing else. If you’re Jed, do you go all-in on Skubal, or try to replace quality with quantity? Something like getting Castillo from the M’s (and hope a change of scenery turns it around), Detmers from the Halos, and some other third guy (maybe Peralta, but sounds like the Mets want an unreasonable return). Making the whole plan out of #4 starters doesn’t inspire hope, but it probably costs about the same in prospect capital as getting one Skubal, and does a little more to guarantee a trip to the postseason. What say you?

Dan Szymborski
I absolutely *would* go all in on someone like Skubal.

I actually ran the numbers and the Cubs are the playoff likely time in ZiPS has has the biggest dropoff in regular season win expectation vs. postseason win expectation.

(I have no idea what he was trying to say in that sentence, so I didn't even try to edit it for clarification. It's also a Monday.)
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Pirates are 9-22 against LHP and their entire healthy lineup is sub .680 OPS against (down to the .400s) aside from Bryan Reynolds. Can you think of two lefty mashers they could realistically add?

Dan Szymborski
The aforementioned Myers is at least plausible. A lot more lefties available than righties in bats.

I wonder if they’d have been interested in Miguel Andujar, pre-broken wrist, after having had him before.
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Do you buy Owen Ayers as a future starting catcher? Cubs prospect nerds are adamant about not moving him for a rental… is he as good as this year’s numbers suggest.

Dan Szymborski
Completely buy, no, but he’s got a good shot.
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Will Jesus Made, Leodalis De Vries, or Ethan Salas be called up to the bigs this season?

Dan Szymborski
Made and De Vries no.

Salas... maybe. He was just promoted if he, say, tears up AAA pitching for a month, I think you could see him at the end of the year.
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Does ZIPS under value Luis Lara the next 3 years? To me, there is a disconnect in Luis Lara ZIPS 2026 ROS, 2027 and 2028. Looks like, to me, that Lara is significantly under valued by ZIPS across the board. Lare looks like a .280 BA, 15. % walk rate, lead potential and 30 SBs. Thank you.

Dan Szymborski
I think it’s underselling him a bit.
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How many runs per game would you project an elite defense (Cubs) to save vs an atrocious D (Mariners) with an average pitching staff (Braves)?

Dan Szymborski
It’s really hard to do any better than a run a game in defense from best to worst. And even a run is hard.
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I agree Skubal does the most good for the Cubs, I do doubt that Jed has it in him to pull the trigger. On the topic of nutty mock trades, if the Cubs offered the Sawx Shaw for Chapman and Gray and eat all the money, who says no? (I realize this isn’t in the realm of possible, but it’s in my brain and I had to let it out.)

Dan Szymborski
I think the Red Sox say no.
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Luis Lara follow up. Quick answer to why ZIPS under sells Luis Lara? Helps me better understand ZIPS. Thank you again.

Dan Szymborski
I’m not sure it’s anything systemic. I just like Lara more than ZiPS does.
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Crazy baseball rule change question. ESPN ran an article about the rise of hit batters relative to the past. The next day Curtis Mead broke his wrist on an errant pitch. What if hit batters got two bases? Do you think pitchers would be more careful? How about combining that with 3 ball walks? I think it would juice offense and balls in play by making pitchers have to aim more.

Dan Szymborski
Seems a little too niche to be worth such a major change?

And in that, you also greatly incentivize a player to try and get hit very strongly.
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So if you’re trying to avoid HBP injuries, the trick is to disincentivize pitchers plunking batters without incentivizing batters getting themselves plunked. What are 3 jokey creative ideas to do this?

Dan Szymborski
Let’s see...

pitcher has to swap with one defensive player in the field for one batter

pitcher has to throw with his other hand for the next batter

Nickelodeon green slime drop from above on pitcher
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I’d be OK with an increased penalty for HBP (maybe increasing # of bases throughout a game if you hit more guys) but only if we pair it with a strict definition of somebody being too close to the zone. We’ve all seen HBPs where the elbow is like 2 inches from the box. Drives me crazy, why do you get a free base for putting your body in the way of a routine ball?

Dan Szymborski
I wish umpires enforced the hit by pitch rules once in a while.
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How much do you trust minor league xwOBA?

Dan Szymborski
They’re useful, not perfect, same as any expected stat.
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Has it already been studied one way or another if a version of Pythagorean Record based on run differential excluding position players pitching and/or excluding periods where the game is out of hand (say 9+ run lead after the 5th for example) would be more accurate?

Dan Szymborski
Not that I can recall off the top of my head. My gut is that the specific situations would get swamped in the rest of the data.
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