Coronavirus

[cardinalkarp]

It’s fine, I’ll just bow out of these threads. I’ll let everyone continue down the MSM narrative of blaming the unvaccinated and the vaccine is great. Nothing more to see.

[G. Keenan]

You don't have to bow out. I think most participants in this thread have maintained an open mind re your doubts but your recent arguments questioning the utility of the vaccines do not hold water, imo. Your original argument that you want to wait and see if any short or long term health implications from vaccination emerge remains, imo, the strongest.

I know you are being careful and wearing a mask when you go out, which is prudent, but don't underestimate your risk by too much. It's clear that you take pride in your personal health habits and physical wellbeing but don't ignore that this virus has laid low or killed plenty of otherwise young, healthy people. People in the 30s and 40s with no major underlying health conditions are dying from Covid every day. Just about every single one of them is unvaccinated.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Can we return to a few facts?

Fact -- being vaccinated DOES protect you against getting infected with Delta. Not 100%, no vaccine ever created does that for any virus, but substantially. For example, the case of Provincetown, Mass where 965 vaccinated people reported Covid infections after 4th of July weekend and triggered the CDC to revise mask guidance for vaccinated people is held up as evidence the vaccines don't prevent infection. But that is 965 of out 60,000 people there that weekend, an infection rate of 1.6%. Of those 965, only 7 went to the hospital and none died. But let's say 1.6% is low. Some didn't report their symptoms. Some were asymptomatic. Let's say it was double that, or triple that, or hell, let's say 20% of vaccinated people there that weekend caught Delta. A vaccine giving you 80% protection against catching Delta very much WORKS.

Fact -- unvaccinated people can be just as much asymptomatic carriers as vaccinated. Arguments that vaccinated people are acting as super spreaders is both speculation and misses the point. Vaccinated people have 8x less risk of catching Covid than unvaxxed. That lower risk is compounded when everyone interacting is vaxxed. The best way for everyone to not get Covid is for everyone that can be vaxxed, to be vaxxed.

Fact -- Being vaccinated makes an infection much less serious, much less severe, much more survivable. It keeps the hospitals from getting overwhelmed and literally saves lives.

People not wanting to get vaccinated because they are afraid of the vaccine is fine. That's their prerogative. But arguments suggesting that the vaccines are somehow part of the problem or are prolonging the pandemic are complete nonsense.

Are these facts?

I've yet to see a study (not that I've looked very hard) showing the vaccine provides sterilizing immunity in X% of the recipients. So, it really depends on what you mean by 'infected'. It is certainly proven that the vaccines reduce symptomatic infections. That's a fact. You can go as far as to say there are studies showing 88%, 87, 64%, and 79% efficacy iirc according to the UK, Israel, Scottish, and some other country's reporting, not in that order. It lines up perfectly with the data I provided from San Diego County earlier in the thread.

You can say the vaccines likely reduce recipients from inoculation, perhaps. Again, I haven't seen any data.

But, to say the vaccine prevents any type of infection you'd probably need to do a trial comparable to what the Phase 3 trials did, only you'd have to regularly test the participants instead of relying on the participants getting tested when symptomatic. I'd think.

Here's the CDC website about the outbreak of covid in Massachusetts.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm

During July 2021, 469 cases of COVID-19 associated with multiple summer events and large public gatherings in a town in Barnstable County, Massachusetts, were identified among Massachusetts residents; vaccination coverage among eligible Massachusetts residents was 69%. Approximately three quarters (346; 74%) of cases occurred in fully vaccinated persons (those who had completed a 2-dose course of mRNA vaccine [Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna] or had received a single dose of Janssen [Johnson & Johnson] vaccine ≥14 days before exposure). Genomic sequencing of specimens from 133 patients identified the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, in 119 (89%) and the Delta AY.3 sublineage in one (1%). Overall, 274 (79%) vaccinated patients with breakthrough infection were symptomatic. Among five COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized, four were fully vaccinated; no deaths were reported. Real-time reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) cycle threshold (Ct) values in specimens from 127 vaccinated persons with breakthrough cases were similar to those from 84 persons who were unvaccinated, not fully vaccinated, or whose vaccination status was unknown (median = 22.77 and 21.54, respectively). The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 is highly transmissible (1); vaccination is the most important strategy to prevent severe illness and death. On July 27, CDC recommended that all persons, including those who are fully vaccinated, should wear masks in indoor public settings in areas where COVID-19 transmission is high or substantial.* Findings from this investigation suggest that even jurisdictions without substantial or high COVID-19 transmission might consider expanding prevention strategies, including masking in indoor public settings regardless of vaccination status, given the potential risk of infection during attendance at large public gatherings that include travelers from many areas with differing levels of transmission.

During July 3–17, 2021, multiple summer events and large public gatherings were held in a town in Barnstable County, Massachusetts, that attracted thousands of tourists from across the United States. Beginning July 10, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health (MA DPH) received reports of an increase in COVID-19 cases among persons who reside in or recently visited Barnstable County, including in fully vaccinated persons. Persons with COVID-19 reported attending densely packed indoor and outdoor events at venues that included bars, restaurants, guest houses, and rental homes. On July 3, MA DPH had reported a 14-day average COVID-19 incidence of zero cases per 100,000 persons per day in residents of the town in Barnstable County; by July 17, the 14-day average incidence increased to 177 cases per 100,000 persons per day in residents of the town (2).

You can't draw any real conclusion, like 100% of vaccinated people were exposed to covid and only 1.6% got sick. That level of detail is not known. But, it should be noted, 177 cases per 100K is more than any state in America right now and occurred in an area with a vaccination rate of 69%. 74% of cases were among the fully vaccinated.

I haven't seen an argument that vaccinated people are acting as super spreaders. Or an argument that asymptomatic unvaccinated people aren't. Regardless, I'd again defer to the level of sterilizing immunity present from vaccines, a figure I've not seen.

Though, it is a fact that vaccines reduce symptomatic infection, hospitalizations, and death thereby easing a burden on the hospitals. That is proven.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

I was in a meeting for about an hour yesterday with a colleague. I wore a mask, he didn't. He tested positive last night. He didn't tell me. Another coworker told me just now, at 11am. I'm furious. If I did contract it, who knows how many people I may have just exposed. Particularly my own family, particularly my son who has a respiratory condition.

I'm also arguing with our managing partner, who refuses to go back to WFH for our firm. She is one of those "I'm over it" covid people. She believes that since we are both vaccinated, and my colleague has no symptoms, he couldn't transmit covid to anyone else. Everything I've read says that is not guaranteed, not with Delta.

Damnit man, this is a nightmare scenario. Hoping for the best for you and your family. I looked it up last week and saw that it was recommended to wait 3-5 days before being tested after exposure for vaccinated people regardless of onset of symptoms.

I started thinking about this exact situation when our employee tested positive. I have no idea what types of mitigation efforts to take. Like I don't know if it's safe, even if distanced, to be in the same house as my kids if I'm positive or think I might be.

Good luck.

[G. Keenan]

I don't think it matters whether or not the vaccine provides sterilizing immunity, aka acts as a brick wall through which the virus cannot pass. If it prevents a symptomatic infection or mitigates the severity of the infection it is working as designed.

Slice and dice the numbers however you want. The smart move is for as many people as possible to get vaccinated. There is no real case to be made otherwise.

[AdmiralKird]

From what I've heard, there are some really bad 15min covid-19 tests out there that have a stupidly high false positive rate that are practically worthless. It's the same problem Theranos (RIP) testing ran into where they kept trying to make tiny samples work (but they don't). So if someone says they tested positive, they may still not have it, depending on the test they had run.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

I think we agree on most all of that. Get vaccinated. Yes.

Vaccines prevent symptomatic infection (~88%), hospitalizations (90%+), and death (90%+). Those percentages are roundabout but seem to be at least somewhat agreed upon by multiple studies.

What I'm saying though is that you can't say the vaccines prevent infection and assign the same 88% (or whatever % you want to use) to it as symptomatic infections. And, I say that because I don't think anyone anywhere has provided that data. If I'm wrong, then I'll admit it. But, I don't think I am.

And, I say that because it was a topic during the Phase 3 trials that they weren't checking for sterilizing immunity and no one really knew if sterilizing immunity would be achievable. From my understanding, it's still an open question and can't be said to be closed. And, by sterilizing immunity I mean prevent infection. Period.

[Fat_Bulldog]

It’s fine, I’ll just bow out of these threads. I’ll let everyone continue down the MSM narrative of blaming the unvaccinated and the vaccine is great. Nothing more to see.

Good lord. This is mature.

My wife's aunt is in the hospital about to die from this. You don't want to hear the story though because it will continue down the narrative of blaming the unvaccinated.

[heyzeus]

I was in a meeting for about an hour yesterday with a colleague. I wore a mask, he didn't. He tested positive last night. He didn't tell me. Another coworker told me just now, at 11am. I'm furious. If I did contract it, who knows how many people I may have just exposed. Particularly my own family, particularly my son who has a respiratory condition.

I'm also arguing with our managing partner, who refuses to go back to WFH for our firm. She is one of those "I'm over it" covid people. She believes that since we are both vaccinated, and my colleague has no symptoms, he couldn't transmit covid to anyone else. Everything I've read says that is not guaranteed, not with Delta.

Damnit man, this is a nightmare scenario. Hoping for the best for you and your family. I looked it up last week and saw that it was recommended to wait 3-5 days before being tested after exposure for vaccinated people regardless of onset of symptoms.

I started thinking about this exact situation when our employee tested positive. I have no idea what types of mitigation efforts to take. Like I don't know if it's safe, even if distanced, to be in the same house as my kids if I'm positive or think I might be.

Good luck.

Thanks man.

So I think I managed to do some small good in the world today. I have the luxury, as a partner in my own law firm, to work from home any time I want. And given my exposure to Covid yesterday, I certainly intend to do so, at least until Delta cases subside in my community.

That's great...for me. But our office is open, and we are requiring our associates and staff to come in. I find that reprehensible, really from a public health but moreover from a moral perspective. Why should I work safely at home but we require our paralegals, legal assistants, and office clerks to come in and risk further exposure?

So I forced our management committee to have an emergency meeting today, and I went head to head with our managing partner (who is one of those "covid is over to me" people) and made my points: Austin is out of ICU beds, vaccinated people can contract Covid, it's possible a vaccinated person can transmit Covid, and many of our employees' families have risk profiles that present unique Covid risks. I forced a vote. And as of tomorrow, any employee of our firm can choose to work from home until the Delta situation improves.

So at the end of the day I was exposed yesterday and not told til midday today, but hopefully my colleagues are less likely to be exposed, at least at work, to Covid again.

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Way to go heyzeus!