Regardless of the accuracy, they seem to be pretty consistent with their methodology so it provides a relative look at spread even if it's an imperfect calculation of R. Rather effective R correlates exactly to the infection rate is irrelevant. What's important is the data pretty clearly shows a very ugly picture wrt spread in communities.
All that to say, agreed it may not be perfect, but the data is reliable enough to make comparisons and no matter how you look at it or what you look at, the picture being painted is quite ugly.
This isn't necessarily true though if the data reported isn't also consistent. Florida used to report daily cases but now they report cases every few days, which means any current data when compared to its prior looks different. The likely reason why this is being done is to screw with the data people are collecting to make it look better than it is.
You can see how around July they went from daily reports where the daily reports roughly lined up with the seven day average. Now they report every few days, where the three day report or so soars high above the average. Once someone knows how to manipulate something then the analytical reporting needs to be amended, if its not you can't trust it for anything anymore.
Regardless of the accuracy, they seem to be pretty consistent with their methodology so it provides a relative look at spread even if it's an imperfect calculation of R. Rather effective R correlates exactly to the infection rate is irrelevant. What's important is the data pretty clearly shows a very ugly picture wrt spread in communities.
All that to say, agreed it may not be perfect, but the data is reliable enough to make comparisons and no matter how you look at it or what you look at, the picture being painted is quite ugly.
This isn't necessarily true though if the data reported isn't also consistent. Florida used to report daily cases but now they report cases every few days, which means any current data when compared to its prior looks different. The likely reason why this is being done is to screw with the data people are collecting to make it look better than it is.
You can see how around July they went from daily reports where the daily reports roughly lined up with the seven day average. Now they report every few days, where the three day report or so soars high above the average. Once someone knows how to manipulate something then the analytical reporting needs to be amended, if its not you can't trust it for anything anymore.
I guess I don't see how that matters all that much, as you noted they're looking at the last 14 days. Even if days are skipped, they're accounted for in the rolling averages. Looking at worldometers, florida is seeing a peak of ~18K new cases daily compared to a peak of about ~16K at their peak in january or whenever. Or roughly about 12% higher now than the previous peak.
Covidactnow has them at 90 daily new cases / 100K people compared to 84 daily new cases / 100K at their previous peak, or roughly 7% higher now. I mean, it seems to be close enough.
The main point is cases are still increasing despite already having more spread than previous peaks. For comparison, their previous peak on January 8th was 84 daily cases per 100K as noted. At that time, their infection rate was 1.0. Currently, at 90 cases/100K, their infection rate is 1.3 which is higher than at any point during the pandemic except the very beginning (March/April 2020) and the past couple weeks. That's what's alarming.
One of the last employees we had get vaxxed got her 2nd shot 3 weeks ago. She drove her grandpa to the hospital for a surgery on Friday. He’s been vaxxed. He tested positive for covid pre-surgery. She got tested today. Tested positive as well.
It's an anecdote, so take it fwiw, but even the CDC is recognizing there is spread in the vaxxed community that isn't always caught and using anecdotes to portray that.
I've mentioned in this thread that vaxxed doctors around here on rotations tested positive when being tested as a matter of routine before rotating.
I'd be interested to know how often vaxxed people catch covid and have no idea and how many people they infect during that time period either to vaxxed or unvaxxed. I have no idea, just a question.
Easy to see how if the employee from above had gone to dinner with her grandpa instead of taking him to a place where he was going to get tested, she'd have been positive and come back to the office without knowing.
It's an anecdote, so take it fwiw, but even the CDC is recognizing there is spread in the vaxxed community that isn't always caught and using anecdotes to portray that.
I've mentioned in this thread that vaxxed doctors around here on rotations tested positive when being tested as a matter of routine before rotating.
I'd be interested to know how often vaxxed people catch covid and have no idea and how many people they infect during that time period either to vaxxed or unvaxxed. I have no idea, just a question.
Easy to see how if the employee from above had gone to dinner with her grandpa instead of taking him to a place where he was going to get tested, she'd have been positive and come back to the office without knowing.
There in lies part of the issue, w/ the vaccine mitigating symptoms to a point a vaccinated person doesn’t realize they’re sick, on top of the fact that they aren’t really testing the vaccinated unless they become hospitalized there could be a lot more people spreading this that what is anticipated.
Another question I’ve been thinking about does the vaccine allow people to have a higher viral load, yet still not feel the effects of COVID?
It's an anecdote, so take it fwiw, but even the CDC is recognizing there is spread in the vaxxed community that isn't always caught and using anecdotes to portray that.
I've mentioned in this thread that vaxxed doctors around here on rotations tested positive when being tested as a matter of routine before rotating.
I'd be interested to know how often vaxxed people catch covid and have no idea and how many people they infect during that time period either to vaxxed or unvaxxed. I have no idea, just a question.
Easy to see how if the employee from above had gone to dinner with her grandpa instead of taking him to a place where he was going to get tested, she'd have been positive and come back to the office without knowing.
There in lies part of the issue, w/ the vaccine mitigating symptoms to a point a vaccinated person doesn’t realize they’re sick, on top of the fact that they aren’t really testing the vaccinated unless they become hospitalized there could be a lot more people spreading this that what is anticipated.
Another question I’ve been thinking about does the vaccine allow people to have a higher viral load, yet still not feel the effects of COVID?
1) This is not a "vaccine problem". This is a testing problem.
2) It has been shown that with Delta, vaxxed people carry roughly the same viral load as unvaxxed. Not more though, to my knowledge.
It's an anecdote, so take it fwiw, but even the CDC is recognizing there is spread in the vaxxed community that isn't always caught and using anecdotes to portray that.
I've mentioned in this thread that vaxxed doctors around here on rotations tested positive when being tested as a matter of routine before rotating.
I'd be interested to know how often vaxxed people catch covid and have no idea and how many people they infect during that time period either to vaxxed or unvaxxed. I have no idea, just a question.
Easy to see how if the employee from above had gone to dinner with her grandpa instead of taking him to a place where he was going to get tested, she'd have been positive and come back to the office without knowing.
There in lies part of the issue, w/ the vaccine mitigating symptoms to a point a vaccinated person doesn’t realize they’re sick, on top of the fact that they aren’t really testing the vaccinated unless they become hospitalized there could be a lot more people spreading this that what is anticipated.
Another question I’ve been thinking about does the vaccine allow people to have a higher viral load, yet still not feel the effects of COVID?
1) This is not a "vaccine problem". This is a testing problem.
2) It has been shown that with Delta, vaxxed people carry roughly the same viral load as unvaxxed. Not more though, to my knowledge.
I wasn’t saying they carry more viral load, what I was saying is all things being equal regarding viral loads…..would an unvaccinated person feel symptomatic, but the vaccinated would not due to the vaccine mitigating the symptoms? But both have the ability to equally spread the virus due to carrying the same viral loads.
One knowingly, one unknowingly of course.
But agreed, this is a testing problem. But in defense of the vaccinated what would spur you to get tested if you’re not feeling symptomatic? But again, if a vaccinated does happen to start feeling sick, the message should no longer be “it’s okay, you won’t get seriously ill IF it’s COVID”, it needs to be “go get tested to ensure you’re not spreading it”.
Last edited by cardinalkarp on August 10 21, 9:31 am, edited 2 times in total.
If the vaccine keeps you from coughing or breathing hard that's definitely seems like a plus in terms of reducing overall transmission. More transmission than was anticipated from a vaxxed person, but less than there would have been if that person were unvaxxed and exhibiting symptoms.
