Coronavirus

[sighyoung]

I do wish TheoSqua and IMADreamer better health soon, and that the rest of you stay safe and remain in good health.

[cardinalkarp]

Theo, I’m going to try to respond to a lot of what you addressed in your previous couple posts to me.

I’d first like to start out by saying I’m glad to hear both yourself and IMA are okay, but I’m also sorry to hear you guys are dealing w/ long COVID symptoms.

As far as the J&J vaccine goes, if it’s comes to a point where I’m forced to get the vaccine then this will be the one I will seek out. But there’s not to say that there aren’t risks w/ this vaccine either, even though it’s using more tried and true vaccine technology. I’m sure you’re aware of the potential, but rare blood clotting issues (where the risk is higher in those under the age of 50) as well as it’s potential to cause guillain barre syndrome (again also rare), but nonetheless serious risks. Now unfortunately, the J&J vaccine is the least effective (I think against Alpha it had around a 65% efficacy, and I’m sure Delta is lower), and I’m sure as time passes the efficacy is going to wane like it is w/ the other vaccines, and I don’t want to be on the hook to constantly get boosters (whatever the schedule for those ends up being). So again the effectiveness also plays a part in my decision.

Edit: I also forgot to add that I really don’t trust J&J as a corporation either. They have obviously been linked to massive lawsuits, and knowing full well their product caused cancer yet continued to keep it on the shelves.

I will say, that if these vaccines actually prevented me from catching COVID, and more importantly prevented me from transmitting it to others I would it would potentially lead me in a direction get the vaccine. And while I know it does reduce the risk, w/ J&J having that low of an efficacy rate….again, the risk IMO outweighs the benefits as long as I continue to do my part in keeping myself and others safe by masking, distancing, and limiting exposure.

What it all comes down to determine my decision is my risk stratification. I wanted to weigh the risks for myself between getting the virus, and the potential risks of the vaccine (both short term known and long term unknowns). While anyone can catch COVID, it’s pretty evident that for the most part the severe cases are happening in the older population and those w/ co-morbidities. I know Biden recently labeled it as a “pandemic of the unvaccinated”, but honestly, this is a “pandemic of the unhealthy”. While that glaring # of 620,000 dead is scary, what percentage of that number falls into the above two categories? I’m not going to go into everything I do to stay healthy, but I’m 44 years old and have zero co-morbidities, so I have the confidence that if I do come into contact w/ the virus, my immune system will have the ability to fight it off (like it does w/ the vast majority of people).

I know you mentioned that COVID has a mortality rate of .02, but it’s actually .002….so it’s quite a bit lower than what your figures might be saying after that (I didn’t check your math on the correlating figures). And I know you mention long-COVID and the % of people who are experiencing those systems (and I’m sorry to hear that both yourself and IMA are), but again, I have to come back to what % of those long COVID suffers fall into the category of having co-morbidities?? I know you mentioned that you are overweight (and I believe IMA has mentioned he’s a bigger guy as well), but when going to your doctor what are they suggesting? Unfortunately, I have zero confidence in our “sick-care” system and most of the doctors within it. Many doctors (and I’m not lumping them all into this category) have become pill pushers and nothing more….oh, you have high blood pressure, here take a pill….anxiety, here’s another pill….oh, your experiencing side effects from those pills, we gotta pill for that! Is it a bit jaded, yes….I’ll readily admit that, but I’m sure you can see that both the physical and mental health of our country is in SERIOUS need of an overhaul. Whatever doctors are doing these days isn’t working, and that’s evident. So have I lost faith in our medical system and the bodies of government that oversee it, 100% unequivocally yes.

I hope I was able to address some of your questions, and I’m sure if people take the time to read this, it still won’t be sufficient reasoning to some, and I’m okay with that. I’ve never once said in here that I’m against the vaccine for parts of the population (in fact quite the opposite), I just don’t think the vaccine is the best option for me. Is that a selfish way of looking at things, potentially it is, but we’re only given one body in our lives and I should be able to make my own choices when it comes to it.

[AdmiralKird]

I will say, that if these vaccines actually prevented me from catching COVID, and more importantly prevented me from transmitting it to others it would potentially lead me in a direction get the vaccine.

[TheoSqua]

Thanks for the response @cardinalkarp. A couple of your points I don't agree with, though I don't personally feel it's worth arguing over. But at least now I understand your personal point of view.

[AdmiralKird]

I'm pretty worried about how effective cloth masks are even going to be against the DV. Right now there's a lot of debate on sending kids back to school, whether they should be masked up the whole time.

Cloth masks were fairly protective at slowing the spread last year, but vanilla covid-19 had a modest R value compared to delta.

A confidential document from the Centers for Disease Control said Delta is more transmissible than the common cold, the 1918 Spanish flu, smallpox, Ebola, MERS and SARS. It’s that document and the science behind it that led to new safety protocols, including encouraging even those that are vaccinated to wear masks again when indoors.

"To put it in the simplest terms, the Delta variant appears to be about three times more contagious than the previous variants of this virus were," Dr. David Montefiori of the Duke Human Vaccine Institute told WRAL News.

In scientific terms, viruses are assigned what’s called an R Naught value. It’s the average number of people an infected person spreads the virus to. The earlier versions of the coronavirus had a value of about 2.5. There are some studies that suggest the R Naught value of the Delta variant is as high as 8. That means, on average, one infected person spreads the virus to 8 others.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/delta- ... /19800811/

These R Values though are without social distancing and mask mandates, etc, that slow it down. We can calculate the R value for any region and time frame given the data that's available. All you need is look at a 7 day average value for any given date, and then whatever the 7 day average cases are 14 days later (viral incubation period).

If we look at Florida during it's last wave from November 1st through November 15th, we get 4.1K cases to 5.9K cases, or an R naught of 1.44. During their descent from the peak on Feb 1st through Feb 15th, they went from 9.8K to 6.8K or 0.69.

So by a pure subtraction they dropped their R Value by 0.745 points. Percentage wise they dropped it to 48%. Virus went in retreat, wave ended.

The problem with the Delta Variant is its transmissibility. There's been enough time we can now do the same figures for the current wave. On July 20th Florida's 7-day average case load was 7.7K. On August 3rd it was 17.6K. This means the current Florida R0 is 2.29, much higher than the last wave's 1.44.

So here's the thing: If Florida managed to drop this wave by the same point value, it would decrease from 2.29-0.745 to 1.54. That's not enough to stop the virus from spreading. If Florida manages to drop the virus by the same percentage value 2.29*0.48= 1.1 That's not enough to stop the virus from spreading.

Eventually it will fall below 1 and the virus will go in retreat, but it's going to be a longer drive to a peak AND much higher. Furthermore, the descent from the peak will be much slower and longer. Anywhere Delta spreads, we're going to have a fast, long drive to peak cases, then take several times longer for cases to subside. A wave isn't going to be a 4 month thing. It will last an entire year once it starts happening unless stronger measures to limit transmission are taken.

The last Florida wave took 2.5 months to peak and 4 months to retreat. If that holds, Florida this time will take about 3 months to peak around late Sept or early October, then almost a whole year to descend. Granted their last wave had an aftershock which added about a month to the retreat, but... Delta is bad. Masks just don't cut it now, and it'll be a problem for any schools regardless of what they do.

Mo has nothing on DeSantis' ability to be patient and muddle through this.

[GeddyWrox]

We're never getting out of this. GDI

[ghostrunner]

What I heard recently was that the 15 minute time frame for being near or in the room with someone with Covid is now down to 1 second with Delta. So you’re going to get it, more or less. Maybe that was here. I’ve taken to wearing a mask in crowded places again but I doubt it’s helping much.

[AdmiralKird]

What I heard recently was that the 15 minute time frame for being near or in the room with someone with Covid is now down to 1 second with Delta. So you’re going to get it, more or less. Maybe that was here. I’ve taken to wearing a mask in crowded places again but I doubt it’s helping much.

That sounds like bad info.

Let's look at the positive side of things, rather than the grim. You're looking at a factor of less than double the transmissibility based on the data from the worst region of the country, possibly world, right now. If the effective* r0 is 2.2 that means 0.4 would be taken up by an significant other (only one person can give it to the significant other, so its halved and 80% of ppl or so have a person they spend time with), then maybe another 0.3 for any kids. So now you need to spend time with a friend/co-worker and give it to them so that will make up an r0 of 1.7. So to get it to 2.2 you'd be looking at a person and a half. That's not going to be an increase in transmissibility of 15min of exposure to 1 second, more like 15min to 12min. The minutes thing isn't really a good way to look at it. It's better to imagine it as a person infecting the next person down the line that they spend the next most time with.

(*effective meaning the r0 is 2.2 because half the population is vaccinated, social distancing is in effect, masks are being worn by some people, and they're mostly outside. The true r0 of delta without these measures is some unknown figure higher. This is why people say its as bad as the chickenpox... but it's not that bad, at least not under current conditions)

I worry about the next variant and what it might mean it increases another 50% in transmissibility, and then next 50% after that. Eventually the mutations will slow but it will take several years.

On the bright side, Missouri managed to crush the r0 from 2 in the first two weeks of July down to 1.4 for the last two weeks so its not as bad up here, mostly because it never spread in St. Louis... and it may have just run out of people to spread to in the southern countryside (for now, it will likely be back to catch those it missed that lie within its zone of infectibility). Florida is also a unique case. There probably won't be a wave that lasts a year in probably any other state. It all depends on how people react to it. Florida is just not doing enough. Their curve shows no sign of flattening with a high r0 and they're in trouble. The other potential is that it just runs out of people to infect in Florida. There is a finite population. If it hits the ceiling really quickly the number of cases could fall rapidly rather than lingering for a year. The number of deaths would skyrocket though because of lack of hospital infrastructure. They're already running out of beds for children which is just... no words.

https://nypost.com/2021/08/08/covid-cas ... itals-doc/

Pediatric hospitals in Florida have become “completely overwhelmed” with young patients battling COVID-19 amid the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant, a doctor says.

The grim development comes as Florida on Sunday reported having the highest number of children — 172 — hospitalized with the coronavirus, according to data from the US Department of Health and Human Services.

“The numbers of cases in our hospitals in children and our children’s hospitals are completely overwhelmed,” said Dr. Aileen Marty, an infectious-disease expert at Florida International University, to CNN late Friday.

“Our pediatricians, the nursing, the staff are exhausted, and the children are suffering. And it is absolutely devastating … Our children are very much affected. We’ve never seen numbers like this before,” she said.

Sharp rises in hospital admissions involving kids with COVID-19 have been recorded in other states, too — including Arkansas, which had its own record number of children Wednesday hospitalized with the virus.

[Smith Corks One]

What I heard recently was that the 15 minute time frame for being near or in the room with someone with Covid is now down to 1 second with Delta. So you’re going to get it, more or less. Maybe that was here. I’ve taken to wearing a mask in crowded places again but I doubt it’s helping much.

That sounds like bad info.

Let's look at the positive side of things, rather than the grim. You're looking at a factor of less than double the transmissibility based on the data from the worst region of the country, possibly world, right now. If the effective* r0 is 2.2 that means 0.4 would be taken up by an significant other (only one person can give it to the significant other, so its halved and 80% of ppl or so have a person they spend time with), then maybe another 0.3 for any kids. So now you need to spend time with a friend/co-worker and give it to them so that will make up an r0 of 1.7. So to get it to 2.2 you'd be looking at a person and a half. That's not going to be an increase in transmissibility of 15min of exposure to 1 second, more like 15min to 12min. The minutes thing isn't really a good way to look at it. It's better to imagine it as a person infecting the next person down the line that they spend the next most time with.

(*effective meaning the r0 is 2.2 because half the population is vaccinated, social distancing is in effect, masks are being worn by some people, and they're mostly outside. The true r0 of delta without these measures is some unknown figure higher. This is why people say its as bad as the chickenpox... but it's not that bad, at least not under current conditions)

I worry about the next variant and what it might mean it increases another 50% in transmissibility, and then next 50% after that. Eventually the mutations will slow but it will take several years.

On the bright side, Missouri managed to crush the r0 from 2 in the first two weeks of July down to 1.4 for the last two weeks so its not as bad up here, mostly because it never spread in St. Louis... and it may have just run out of people to spread to in the southern countryside (for now, it will likely be back to catch those it missed that lie within its zone of infectibility). Florida is also a unique case. There probably won't be a wave that lasts a year in probably any other state. It all depends on how people react to it. Florida is just not doing enough. Their curve shows no sign of flattening with a high r0 and they're in trouble. The other potential is that it just runs out of people to infect in Florida. There is a finite population. If it hits the ceiling really quickly the number of cases could fall rapidly rather than lingering for a year. The number of deaths would skyrocket though because of lack of hospital infrastructure. They're already running out of beds for children which is just... no words.

https://nypost.com/2021/08/08/covid-cas ... itals-doc/

Pediatric hospitals in Florida have become “completely overwhelmed” with young patients battling COVID-19 amid the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant, a doctor says.

The grim development comes as Florida on Sunday reported having the highest number of children — 172 — hospitalized with the coronavirus, according to data from the US Department of Health and Human Services.

“The numbers of cases in our hospitals in children and our children’s hospitals are completely overwhelmed,” said Dr. Aileen Marty, an infectious-disease expert at Florida International University, to CNN late Friday.

“Our pediatricians, the nursing, the staff are exhausted, and the children are suffering. And it is absolutely devastating … Our children are very much affected. We’ve never seen numbers like this before,” she said.

Sharp rises in hospital admissions involving kids with COVID-19 have been recorded in other states, too — including Arkansas, which had its own record number of children Wednesday hospitalized with the virus.

I also heard the 1 second thing, from some epidemiologist. Since 1 second is approximately 1/1000 of 15 minutes, and they've been saying that Delta has 1,000 times the viral load as OG Covid, I assumed those two numbers were somehow related.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

@AdmiralKird I've seen R0 values for delta anywhere from 6 to 9.

https://covidactnow.org/?s=21521078 has the infection rate (number of people an infected person is infecting - their definition) for every state/county which from my understanding is pretty much the same as the effective R value.

I brought this up a while ago, and it still holds true. Every state in the nation has an R greater than or equal to 1.1 right now and has for the past few weeks at least. And, 1.1 corresponds to R values we saw at the peaks of covid in the first year. It should be noted, some of that is due to going from very few cases nationwide where a slight increase in cases will lead to a higher effective R. But, what's also concerning, is the infection rate (r value) typically is a curve, up then down. It would increase up to around 1.1 then decrease back to below 1. Rinse. Wash. Repeat. Or, worse case scenario, it would hover around 1.0X for a while leading to a slow increase in cases but allow the healthcare infrastructure to remain functional.

But, even the states that saw the largest wave of the delta (Arkansas, Missouri, Florida, Louisiana) still haven't seen the infection rate drop back below 1 or even close to it. Missouri seems to be stalled out at 1.1,Arkansas is at 1.2. Florida is stalled at 1.3. Louisiana continues dropping, but they have so many cases 100 cases daily per 100K citizens, it's tough to maintain that rate of infection regardless of how infectious a disease is. Though, based on all the empirical data, they'll likely not get below 1 for quite some time.

Obviously, those states don't have great vax rates though Florida is middle of the road.