Coronavirus

[AdmiralKird]

this is factually incorrect...the death rate without treatment is not between 1-7% for COVID19

if you want to just make up things/statistics to help your argument, then there's really no point in my responding

The current U.S. case mortality rate is 1.78%, and that's with up-to-date treatment. All numbers guessing the actual mortality rate for non-reported cases are all guesstimates. So if you want to say its lower than that, well that's technically "making things up" as well because the number of actual true cases is an unknown. I am sure the current mortality rate is much lower, probably around 0.7% once you factor in probable levels of asymptomatic cases and percentage of people actually being tested when they're sick, but such a figure would be again for the current mortality rate factoring in all the advances in treatment made over the past year, and almost every case where patients appeared at risk (even at the beginning of the pandemic) likely had some form of treatment. Even a simple oxygen mask back then should have gone a significant way to extending the timeframe for a person to recover. I don't know why you think 1% and going up from there to the early case fatality rates to account for unknowns is an extreme. I mean, 7% is an extreme but this is what happens when the standard deviation of values for unknowns is so large, but it's not extreme to say its larger than 1%, especially given the coveted hard statistical figures (albeit inaccurate based on qualitative analysis) say the case rate is 75% higher than that.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Couple obvious things.

The age of the earth is a guesstimate, but you can quote 4.5 billion years (+/- 100M) pretty reliably and know that it's more accurate than what the Bible says which iirc is like 6K years old. Same thing with infection fatality rate vs case fatality rate if you want to know what % of people would die if everyone is infected.

Second, fatality rate striations among demographics are so extreme any conversation is incomplete without them when assessing risk for an individual.

Third, what therapeutics have emerged for covid? I honestly quit paying attention but haven't heard of any big things being approved/recommended.

[GeddyWrox]

@AW.... This was from February. I haven't heard of any other promising treatments recently.

In good news, it sounds like a promising antiviral theraputic has been identified. Sounds like it needs more testing. But hopefully they can speed this through, as it has previously been tested for treating a type of cancer.

Powerful Antiviral Treatment for COVID-19 Discovered That Could Change How Epidemics Are Managed

https://scitechdaily.com/powerful-antiv ... e-managed/

Researchers from the University of Nottingham have discovered a novel antiviral property of a drug that could have major implications in how future epidemics / pandemics — including Covid-19 — are managed.

The study, published in Viruses, shows that thapsigargin is a promising broad spectrum antiviral, highly effective against Covid-19 virus (SARS-CoV-2), a common cold coronavirus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and the influenza A virus.

Given that acute respiratory virus infections caused by different viruses are clinically indistinguishable on presentation, an effective broad-spectrum that can target different virus types at the same time could significantly improve clinical management. An antiviral of this type could potentially be made available for community use to control active infection and its spread.

The study is a collaborative project led by Professor Kin-Chow Chang and experts at the University of Nottingham (Schools of Veterinary Medicine and Sciences, Biosciences, Pharmacy, Medicine, and Chemistry), and colleagues at the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), China Agricultural University and the Pirbright Institute.

In this ground-breaking study, the team of experts found that the plant-derived antiviral, at small doses, triggers a highly effective broad-spectrum host-centered antiviral innate immune response against three major types of human respiratory viruses — including Covid-19.

The key features based on cell and animal studies, which make thapsigargin a promising antiviral are that it is:

• effective against viral infection when used before or during active infection
• able to prevent a virus from making new copies of itself in cells for at least 48 hours after a single 30-minute exposure.
• stable in acidic pH, as found in the stomach, and therefore can be taken orally, so could be administered without the need for injections or hospital admission.
• not sensitive to virus resistance.
• at least several hundred-fold more effective than current antiviral options.
• just as effective in blocking combined infection with coronavirus and influenza A virus as in single-virus infection.
• safe as an antiviral (a derivative of thapsigargin has been tested in prostate cancer).

Here is a link to the research article:
https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/13/2/234/pdf

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

@AW.... This was from February. I haven't heard of any other promising treatments recently.

In good news, it sounds like a promising antiviral theraputic has been identified. Sounds like it needs more testing. But hopefully they can speed this through, as it has previously been tested for treating a type of cancer.

Powerful Antiviral Treatment for COVID-19 Discovered That Could Change How Epidemics Are Managed

https://scitechdaily.com/powerful-antiv ... e-managed/

Researchers from the University of Nottingham have discovered a novel antiviral property of a drug that could have major implications in how future epidemics / pandemics — including Covid-19 — are managed.

The study, published in Viruses, shows that thapsigargin is a promising broad spectrum antiviral, highly effective against Covid-19 virus (SARS-CoV-2), a common cold coronavirus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and the influenza A virus.

Given that acute respiratory virus infections caused by different viruses are clinically indistinguishable on presentation, an effective broad-spectrum that can target different virus types at the same time could significantly improve clinical management. An antiviral of this type could potentially be made available for community use to control active infection and its spread.

The study is a collaborative project led by Professor Kin-Chow Chang and experts at the University of Nottingham (Schools of Veterinary Medicine and Sciences, Biosciences, Pharmacy, Medicine, and Chemistry), and colleagues at the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), China Agricultural University and the Pirbright Institute.

In this ground-breaking study, the team of experts found that the plant-derived antiviral, at small doses, triggers a highly effective broad-spectrum host-centered antiviral innate immune response against three major types of human respiratory viruses — including Covid-19.

The key features based on cell and animal studies, which make thapsigargin a promising antiviral are that it is:

• effective against viral infection when used before or during active infection
• able to prevent a virus from making new copies of itself in cells for at least 48 hours after a single 30-minute exposure.
• stable in acidic pH, as found in the stomach, and therefore can be taken orally, so could be administered without the need for injections or hospital admission.
• not sensitive to virus resistance.
• at least several hundred-fold more effective than current antiviral options.
• just as effective in blocking combined infection with coronavirus and influenza A virus as in single-virus infection.
• safe as an antiviral (a derivative of thapsigargin has been tested in prostate cancer).

Here is a link to the research article:
https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/13/2/234/pdf

Thanks for reposting. It sure seems there will be medical breakthroughs (for lack of a better term) that occur during the pandemic that will be useful long after covid settles down (mRNA vaccines likely among them). Hopefully this antiviral is also one of them. Crazy how much more effective humanity is at treating bacterial infections than viral infections.

[Jocephus]

fwiw re: athletes

Study of Big Ten college athletes suggests higher risk for post-COVID-19 heart problems

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/sto ... t-problems

A study out Thursday on the risk of heart damage to college athletes who have had COVID-19 contradicts other recent studies by suggesting symptoms are not the best indicator for possible heart problems and advocating for continued high-level cardiac monitoring, awareness and possible testing of athletes post-COVID.

The study published in JAMA Cardiology found the inflammatory heart condition myocarditis in 37, or 2.3%, of 1,597 Big Ten college athletes given a cardiac MRI after testing positive for COVID-19.

[G. Keenan]

Thought this was fairly interesting and might add something to this thread. Basically, if you're fully vaccinated, coronavirus is not a threat to you and you can toss the mask without fear.

But if you're not vaccinated, there is still a whole lot of virus out there and your chances of catching it are still pretty high, especially if you stop masking. Infections totals and rates are falling from their peaks because of the number of vaccinated people. For the unvaccinated, they are as high as ever.

The unseen covid-19 risk
for unvaccinated people

The country’s declining covid-19 case rates present an unrealistically optimistic perspective for half of the nation — the half that is still not vaccinated.

As more people receive vaccines, covid-19 cases are occurring mostly in the increasingly narrow slice of the unprotected population. So The Washington Post adjusted its case, death and hospitalization rates to account for that — and found that in some places, the virus continues to rage among those who haven’t received a shot.

[GeddyWrox]

CNBC: NIH scientists say they may have found a promising new oral antiviral drug for Covid.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/03/covid-n ... -drug.html

Scientists may have found a promising new treatment for Covid-19 after an experimental oral antiviral drug demonstrated the ability to prevent the coronavirus from replicating, the National Institutes of Health said Thursday, citing a new study.

The drug, called TEMPOL, can reduce Covid-19 infections by impairing an enzyme the virus needs to make copies of itself once it's inside human cells, which could potentially limit the severity of the disease, researchers at the NIH said. The drug was tested in an experiment of cell cultures with live viruses.

[heyzeus]

Heh you said oral

[heyzeus]

I started going back to the office this week. We're all vaxxed. My kids are too young to be vaxxed, though, so I do worry about spreading it to them (although my understanding is that vaccinated people are very unlikely to be able to transmit, even if they get a likely asymptomatic case.

[GeddyWrox]

Heh you said oral

LOL!

Don't tell CardsofSTL