Coronavirus

[G. Keenan]

I don't get what the difference actually having had the virus and having been vaccinated. I can go without a mask if I'd had the vaccine, but not if I had the virus and recovered? That doesn't really make sense.

no, no it doesn't...they seem to be purposefully leaving out that demographic (people not vaccinated, but have had the virus and recovered). it really needs to be included into the "herd immunity" count, but it's not. all counts I see are just partial/vaccinated percentages, but if you include that demographic, we're probably very close to herd immunity already (particularly with children who can't be vaccinated and may have already had it, and we don't know as they had no symptoms/were never tested)

people may say, "but you don't know long you're immune if you've had the virus and recovered!"...well guess what, no one knows how long you're immune with ANY of the vaccines either. it's all still so new that we can only go on infection immunity for the past year plus, and less that that with the vaccines.

There actually is a difference between immunity to Covid produced by the vaccine, and immunity gained from being naturally infected and recovering. The immunity produced from the vaccines is stronger. Your body "remembers" a virus using multiple immune system tools. The immune response triggered by the vaccine activates more of those tools and produces stronger, longer lasting immunity than having been naturally infected. There actually is data on this.

And we do know how long vaccinated immunity lasts, at least at a minimum. It lasts for at least 6 months. It is likely longer, but as you say, we've only had Covid running rampant for just over a year. So it's true that we don't know how long you'll ultimately be immune if you get vaccinated, but we can say it is at a minimum 6 months.

People who've been infected and recovered do count towards herd immunity. But herd immunity will be stronger if that immunity comes mostly from vaccination vs getting infected.

[cardsfantx]

I don't get what the difference actually having had the virus and having been vaccinated. I can go without a mask if I'd had the vaccine, but not if I had the virus and recovered? That doesn't really make sense.

no, no it doesn't...they seem to be purposefully leaving out that demographic (people not vaccinated, but have had the virus and recovered). it really needs to be included into the "herd immunity" count, but it's not. all counts I see are just partial/vaccinated percentages, but if you include that demographic, we're probably very close to herd immunity already (particularly with children who can't be vaccinated and may have already had it, and we don't know as they had no symptoms/were never tested)

people may say, "but you don't know long you're immune if you've had the virus and recovered!"...well guess what, no one knows how long you're immune with ANY of the vaccines either. it's all still so new that we can only go on infection immunity for the past year plus, and less that that with the vaccines.

There actually is a difference between immunity to Covid produced by the vaccine, and immunity gained from being naturally infected and recovering. The immunity produced from the vaccines is stronger. Your body "remembers" a virus using multiple immune system tools. The immune response triggered by the vaccine activates more of those tools and produces stronger, longer lasting immunity than having been naturally infected. There actually is data on this.

And we do know how long vaccinated immunity lasts, at least at a minimum. It lasts for at least 6 months. It is likely longer, but as you say, we've only had Covid running rampant for just over a year. So it's true that we don't know how long you'll ultimately be immune if you get vaccinated, but we can say it is at a minimum 6 months.

People who've been infected and recovered do count towards herd immunity. But herd immunity will be stronger if that immunity comes mostly from vaccination vs getting infected.

When you get a virus naturally, your body “remembers” it as well.

And I’d love to see the number/percentages for the herd immunity using the combined groups. All the big outlets I’ve seen only are including the partially/fully vaccinated individuals.

[G. Keenan]

I don't get what the difference actually having had the virus and having been vaccinated. I can go without a mask if I'd had the vaccine, but not if I had the virus and recovered? That doesn't really make sense.

no, no it doesn't...they seem to be purposefully leaving out that demographic (people not vaccinated, but have had the virus and recovered). it really needs to be included into the "herd immunity" count, but it's not. all counts I see are just partial/vaccinated percentages, but if you include that demographic, we're probably very close to herd immunity already (particularly with children who can't be vaccinated and may have already had it, and we don't know as they had no symptoms/were never tested)

people may say, "but you don't know long you're immune if you've had the virus and recovered!"...well guess what, no one knows how long you're immune with ANY of the vaccines either. it's all still so new that we can only go on infection immunity for the past year plus, and less that that with the vaccines.

There actually is a difference between immunity to Covid produced by the vaccine, and immunity gained from being naturally infected and recovering. The immunity produced from the vaccines is stronger. Your body "remembers" a virus using multiple immune system tools. The immune response triggered by the vaccine activates more of those tools and produces stronger, longer lasting immunity than having been naturally infected. There actually is data on this.

And we do know how long vaccinated immunity lasts, at least at a minimum. It lasts for at least 6 months. It is likely longer, but as you say, we've only had Covid running rampant for just over a year. So it's true that we don't know how long you'll ultimately be immune if you get vaccinated, but we can say it is at a minimum 6 months.

People who've been infected and recovered do count towards herd immunity. But herd immunity will be stronger if that immunity comes mostly from vaccination vs getting infected.

When you get a virus naturally, your body “remembers” it as well.

And I’d love to see the number/percentages for the herd immunity using the combined groups. All the big outlets I’ve seen only are including the partially/fully vaccinated individuals.

Yes, our body does remember the virus after a natural infection. But it remembers it better after a vaccine. There is hard evidence in support of that. The most immune people are going to those who caught it, recovered, AND get vaccinated.

Here is an article in today's Washington Post that indeed mentions naturally infected people's immunity helping achieve the goal of herd immunity: Is it now reasonable to discuss the end of the pandemic? Yes, but with caveats.

U.S. officials have gained confidence that the virus will be brought under control in coming months. Cases are likely to decline sharply by July, according to some models released recently by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The nation is benefiting from widespread vaccination in combination with natural immunity from coronavirus infections. The contagion may soon experience exponential decay — the opposite of its explosive spread last spring and again in the late fall and winter.

“Covid-19 as a pandemic will end,” Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in an interview. “But it won’t end uniformly throughout the world for obvious reasons, because many countries will not have capabilities to make it end. But as a pandemic, or as a countrywide epidemic, it absolutely will end in this country.”

Achieving that depends on getting at least 70 percent of adults vaccinated, he said. If that happens, Fauci said, by the time autumn arrives, “I think we’re going to get out of the epidemic stage and much more into the control stage.”

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

I have no intention on getting the vaccine (and no, I’m not an anti-vaxxer or anti-mask) unless I’m absolutely forced to because of my work. For everyone to blindly put their faith in an experimental vaccine created by pharmaceutical companies that have TERRIBLE track records of having zero concern for public health or safety isn’t exactly making me line up to get a vaccine. I have no issues w/ anyone who does/doesn’t get it, it’s a personal choice. There is so much more known about the virus and being a healthy adult in his 40’s I’ve weighed the risks of the disease against the potential unknown risks of the vaccine.

I've had this conversation a couple times, including with Mrs. AW who was in the same boat but in her 30s (and a female to boot). I also used to be in the boat of not getting vaccinated at first. So, what you're saying, to me, makes complete sense. I don't have a large deal of trust in the FDA or the pharma companies. Period.

But, at the same time I can recognize that they do care about making a vaccine that is safe and effective even if only for greed. And, I do think you can pretty easily say the vaccines are effective. I have zero doubts about the studies that have shown as much. If that's your pause for concern, I can pull up the data, but I don't think it is.

For me and I think most people in your boat, it's a risk/reward scenario thinking of only myself/yourself. I tried to keep a post short and it failed miserably for how I think people go about it so that got deleted and I'll just say the obvious issue is trying to define risk. Not being vaxxed and not being infected is the best outcome. Not being vaxxed increases the odds of the worst outcome. Being vaxxed guarantees some increased risk but minimizes the odds of the worst outcome.

Given we have short term data showing the risk of vaccines is negligible but present and we have short term data showing the risk of covid is greater, in the short term it's an increased risk to get covid than to get vaccinated but not a guarantee one will realize the risks associated with infection. In other words, if unvaxxed hypothetical person A was going to be inoculated with an infectious dose of covid within a year, person A should undoubtedly go get vaxxed that day. But, that's not reality. A lot of people have gone a year without being infected.

Given we have no long term data for either the vax or covid (despite the term long haulers, we're still less than a year for the majority of infections), let's just call this a wash. It's likely the long term risk from covid is greater than the long term risk from the vax but that's not proven. As this long term expands into years, the risk of catching covid also increases kicking in the probability the short term risks are realized. Change person A's timeframe from 1 year to 5 years, and...it starts to become more of a threat.

Looking at it like that, along with research of what mRNA vaccines are, it became more logical to just get vaccinated. At least that was my thought progression at least.

Having said all that, everyone needs to understand what risks they're willing to take and live with it. As I've said in this thread before, there's an increased risk moving forward for every human on the planet since the outbreak and there's nothing anyone is going to do to change that. There's a lot to be said about herd immunity but that's a different post.

And, I'll end with the anecdote of my wife. She wanted to wait a year or two to get vaxxed to see if any long term effects popped up willing to live with the risk of infection thinking it wouldn't really mess her up too bad. She got covid and made it through just fine from an outsiders perspective (felt bad for a few days, cough, runny nose, fever, etc). But, she also, two months later, still can't taste or smell much which is a mild annoyance but a meaningful one in terms of quality of life. She's noticed increased heart rates while exercising though that has subsided somewhat as time passes but still exists. And, she aged a couple years adding some grey hair to her head for the first time in her life. She confided that if she knew then what an infection would entail, she would have taken the vaccine. But, can't go back.

Her antibodies were tested a couple weeks after her infection and barely registered (I think it was like 1 compared to 50 or 100 don't quote me or so for people post vaccination). She still wasn't going to get the vaccine but was pretty much on the fence at this point. What pushed her over the edge, of all things, was a trip to the Bahamas we have in July. The Bahamian government requires a negative pcr test within 5 days of entering in order to complete a health visa. But, that requirement is waived for vaxxed people (proof required). So, after all the himming and hawing over rather or not to get it, it was a simple government regulation that made up her mind lol.

[Leroy]

I have never heard that. I've never heard anything even close to that, but I guess if there's data.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

I don't get what the difference actually having had the virus and having been vaccinated. I can go without a mask if I'd had the vaccine, but not if I had the virus and recovered? That doesn't really make sense.

no, no it doesn't...they seem to be purposefully leaving out that demographic (people not vaccinated, but have had the virus and recovered). it really needs to be included into the "herd immunity" count, but it's not. all counts I see are just partial/vaccinated percentages, but if you include that demographic, we're probably very close to herd immunity already (particularly with children who can't be vaccinated and may have already had it, and we don't know as they had no symptoms/were never tested)

people may say, "but you don't know long you're immune if you've had the virus and recovered!"...well guess what, no one knows how long you're immune with ANY of the vaccines either. it's all still so new that we can only go on infection immunity for the past year plus, and less that that with the vaccines.

There actually is a difference between immunity to Covid produced by the vaccine, and immunity gained from being naturally infected and recovering. The immunity produced from the vaccines is stronger. Your body "remembers" a virus using multiple immune system tools. The immune response triggered by the vaccine activates more of those tools and produces stronger, longer lasting immunity than having been naturally infected. There actually is data on this.

And we do know how long vaccinated immunity lasts, at least at a minimum. It lasts for at least 6 months. It is likely longer, but as you say, we've only had Covid running rampant for just over a year. So it's true that we don't know how long you'll ultimately be immune if you get vaccinated, but we can say it is at a minimum 6 months.

People who've been infected and recovered do count towards herd immunity. But herd immunity will be stronger if that immunity comes mostly from vaccination vs getting infected.

When you get a virus naturally, your body “remembers” it as well.

And I’d love to see the number/percentages for the herd immunity using the combined groups. All the big outlets I’ve seen only are including the partially/fully vaccinated individuals.

Yes, our body does remember the virus after a natural infection. But it remembers it better after a vaccine. There is hard evidence in support of that. The most immune people are going to those who caught it, recovered, AND get vaccinated.

Here is an article in today's Washington Post that indeed mentions naturally infected people's immunity helping achieve the goal of herd immunity: Is it now reasonable to discuss the end of the pandemic? Yes, but with caveats.

U.S. officials have gained confidence that the virus will be brought under control in coming months. Cases are likely to decline sharply by July, according to some models released recently by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The nation is benefiting from widespread vaccination in combination with natural immunity from coronavirus infections. The contagion may soon experience exponential decay — the opposite of its explosive spread last spring and again in the late fall and winter.

“Covid-19 as a pandemic will end,” Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in an interview. “But it won’t end uniformly throughout the world for obvious reasons, because many countries will not have capabilities to make it end. But as a pandemic, or as a countrywide epidemic, it absolutely will end in this country.”

Achieving that depends on getting at least 70 percent of adults vaccinated, he said. If that happens, Fauci said, by the time autumn arrives, “I think we’re going to get out of the epidemic stage and much more into the control stage.”

So...does Fauci think the vaccine is going to last into the fall for everyone that was vaccinated in the early part of 2021 and/or that protection from natural infections will last a full year? Because those statements really suggest they will. Unless I'm misunderstanding....

[G. Keenan]

I don't get what the difference actually having had the virus and having been vaccinated. I can go without a mask if I'd had the vaccine, but not if I had the virus and recovered? That doesn't really make sense.

no, no it doesn't...they seem to be purposefully leaving out that demographic (people not vaccinated, but have had the virus and recovered). it really needs to be included into the "herd immunity" count, but it's not. all counts I see are just partial/vaccinated percentages, but if you include that demographic, we're probably very close to herd immunity already (particularly with children who can't be vaccinated and may have already had it, and we don't know as they had no symptoms/were never tested)

people may say, "but you don't know long you're immune if you've had the virus and recovered!"...well guess what, no one knows how long you're immune with ANY of the vaccines either. it's all still so new that we can only go on infection immunity for the past year plus, and less that that with the vaccines.

There actually is a difference between immunity to Covid produced by the vaccine, and immunity gained from being naturally infected and recovering. The immunity produced from the vaccines is stronger. Your body "remembers" a virus using multiple immune system tools. The immune response triggered by the vaccine activates more of those tools and produces stronger, longer lasting immunity than having been naturally infected. There actually is data on this.

And we do know how long vaccinated immunity lasts, at least at a minimum. It lasts for at least 6 months. It is likely longer, but as you say, we've only had Covid running rampant for just over a year. So it's true that we don't know how long you'll ultimately be immune if you get vaccinated, but we can say it is at a minimum 6 months.

People who've been infected and recovered do count towards herd immunity. But herd immunity will be stronger if that immunity comes mostly from vaccination vs getting infected.

When you get a virus naturally, your body “remembers” it as well.

And I’d love to see the number/percentages for the herd immunity using the combined groups. All the big outlets I’ve seen only are including the partially/fully vaccinated individuals.

Yes, our body does remember the virus after a natural infection. But it remembers it better after a vaccine. There is hard evidence in support of that. The most immune people are going to those who caught it, recovered, AND get vaccinated.

Here is an article in today's Washington Post that indeed mentions naturally infected people's immunity helping achieve the goal of herd immunity: Is it now reasonable to discuss the end of the pandemic? Yes, but with caveats.

U.S. officials have gained confidence that the virus will be brought under control in coming months. Cases are likely to decline sharply by July, according to some models released recently by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The nation is benefiting from widespread vaccination in combination with natural immunity from coronavirus infections. The contagion may soon experience exponential decay — the opposite of its explosive spread last spring and again in the late fall and winter.

“Covid-19 as a pandemic will end,” Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in an interview. “But it won’t end uniformly throughout the world for obvious reasons, because many countries will not have capabilities to make it end. But as a pandemic, or as a countrywide epidemic, it absolutely will end in this country.”

Achieving that depends on getting at least 70 percent of adults vaccinated, he said. If that happens, Fauci said, by the time autumn arrives, “I think we’re going to get out of the epidemic stage and much more into the control stage.”

So...does Fauci think the vaccine is going to last into the fall for everyone that was vaccinated in the early part of 2021 and/or that protection from natural infections will last a full year? Because those statements really suggest they will. Unless I'm misunderstanding....

I think he/they do expect that people getting vaccinated in Spring 2021 will still have protection from the vaccine come Fall 2021, yes, with the caveat that some kind of booster shot may be necessary if vaccine-resistant variants start to become a bigger threat. Estimates I've seen to reach "herd immunity" are that we need like 85% of people to be vaccinated and/or have recovered to hit that. With roughly 10% of the US population having been infected (that we know of), I think that's what informs the target of getting the other 70% vaxxed. Which speaks to Leroy and cardsfantx's questions about why no mention of people who have recovered? Perhaps the media sort of ignores their roll in achieving herd immunity, but the actual doctors are factoring them in.

So I think Fauci is saying that by Fall, if things continue on their current positive trajectory, Covid will still be here, but no longer considered an epidemic. It'll be more on the level with season flu.

BTW, we know that the vaccines offer greater immunity than natural infection because when you test people who've been vaccinated vs. recovered naturally at various intervals forward in time, the people who got vaxxed have more antibodies still than the people who caught it.

And just to crack a joke, a double cheeseburger is probably a bigger health risk than one of these vaccines. Also, these vaccines and just vaccines in general have far fewer side effects that regular prescription medications that people take every day. Your average cholesterol meds or sleeping pill or what have is hitting many more people with negative side effects than a vaccine is. Which is to your excellent point, AW, about how bad human beings are at evaluating risk. We overstate the danger from novel risks, while understating the danger of everyday risks because we are simple accustomed to them. Not taking any risk is itself a kind of risk. Any investor or financial planner can tell you that.

[G. Keenan]

Just to add a final point to the benefit of getting vaxxed vs. getting a natural infection. Don't forget about the variants. The dominant strain of Covid in the US today is the so-called UK variant, which is more contagious and more deadly than the original Wuhan one that kicked this whole thing off. So if you had Covid last year or over the winter, odds are you had the original strain of the virus. You may actually have no immunity at all to the the new variants. The vaccines, testing shows, do protect you against the new variants. Less than against the original strain, but more than natural immunity.

There are a lot real world examples of this. In the Brazilian city of Manaus, pretty much the whole city, millions of people caught the original strain at the start of the pandemic. They thought the city had herd immunity, but no. Along came the Brazilian variant, and cases freaking exploded. People who thought they were immune because they'd recovered were not, and it crashed the city's health system and lots and lots of people died. They didn't have vaccines because Brazil didn't have enough to get people vaxxed before the new strain hit.

The vaccines are very safe. In a pure risk analysis, not getting vaccinated is vastly more risky to your personal health, and the overall health of the community, than getting the shot.

[AdmiralKird]

Good news, we solved vaccine hesitancy!

Free beer offer results in more vaccinations than all Erie County first-dose clinics last week

The idea of getting vaccinated had been rolling around in the back of Tyler Morsch's mind for weeks. As a 28-year-old, he didn't feel in any particular danger, but he finally decided he should start looking for a Covid-19 vaccination clinic this week. Then he heard the magic words.

"Free beer," he said.

https://buffalonews.com/news/local/free ... 85dc1.html

[sighyoung]

Good news, we solved vaccine hesitancy!

Free beer offer results in more vaccinations than all Erie County first-dose clinics last week

The idea of getting vaccinated had been rolling around in the back of Tyler Morsch's mind for weeks. As a 28-year-old, he didn't feel in any particular danger, but he finally decided he should start looking for a Covid-19 vaccination clinic this week. Then he heard the magic words.

"Free beer," he said.

https://buffalonews.com/news/local/free ... 85dc1.html