Coronavirus and the 2020 Season (Season Postponed, pg3)
- heyzeus
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Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 Season (Season Postponed, pg3)
This is an important Fangraphs article if you want to unpack exactly what it is that the owners just proposed to the players. Before, there was one colossal reason there might not be a 2020 season; now there are two.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/after-years ... al-losses/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/after-years ... al-losses/
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Jocephus
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Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 Season (Season Postponed, pg3)
the rich goin' cannibal!
that article might have the worst comments i've ever seen on FG too
that article might have the worst comments i've ever seen on FG too
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AWvsCBsteeeerike3
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Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 Season (Season Postponed, pg3)
Yeah, based on what I've seen, there's a lot of issues still, unsurprisingly. Players/owners are on different pages monetarily as well as on safety issues.
These types of negotiations don't seem to move quickly especially given the vast differences given. Given that it's mid may, and a minimum of what 3 weeks if not more is needed to go through spring training...I don't see this happening.
These types of negotiations don't seem to move quickly especially given the vast differences given. Given that it's mid may, and a minimum of what 3 weeks if not more is needed to go through spring training...I don't see this happening.
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Fat Strat
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Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 Season (Season Postponed, pg3)
(Posted originally over at VEB)
I feel like the owners have two options here:
1. MLB has a season. Owners have high expenses and they lose a major revenue stream – 50-70% of income.
2. MLB has no season. Owners have low expenses and they lose 100% of income.
Either way, it looks to me like MLB owners are going to take a huge financial hit.
I think the players can hold out to get as much as they can this year, but I think they lose regardless. The owners will either pull the plug on the season to cut off their expenses or pay the players this season and pass on the loss of income to 2021 and beyond.
That to me is the tricky part. I tracked payroll changes during the Great Recession in the late ’00s and there was a near-universal dip in spending on players. I tracked spending for the entire NL and specifically for the Cards, Cubs, and Dodgers, who all cut payroll by $10M in one season during the economic crisis. That was with fans in the stands.
This crisis looks worse and there is no reason to believe it won’t last just as long. Regardless of what happens in 2020, I still think clubs will cut payroll almost universally next season to make up for the lost revenue and to have some security in a very insecure financial market. Players can cry foul and fight it but that’s the way it’s probably going to go.
I’m not sure what the players should do. I kind of think that the players should make some concessions here because I do think there is a chance that the owners could just clamp down if they don’t, end the season and there will be massive cuts in free agency spending, contract extensions, etc. next year and beyond. The players should continue to fight, but they have to also see the big picture.
I feel like the owners have two options here:
1. MLB has a season. Owners have high expenses and they lose a major revenue stream – 50-70% of income.
2. MLB has no season. Owners have low expenses and they lose 100% of income.
Either way, it looks to me like MLB owners are going to take a huge financial hit.
I think the players can hold out to get as much as they can this year, but I think they lose regardless. The owners will either pull the plug on the season to cut off their expenses or pay the players this season and pass on the loss of income to 2021 and beyond.
That to me is the tricky part. I tracked payroll changes during the Great Recession in the late ’00s and there was a near-universal dip in spending on players. I tracked spending for the entire NL and specifically for the Cards, Cubs, and Dodgers, who all cut payroll by $10M in one season during the economic crisis. That was with fans in the stands.
This crisis looks worse and there is no reason to believe it won’t last just as long. Regardless of what happens in 2020, I still think clubs will cut payroll almost universally next season to make up for the lost revenue and to have some security in a very insecure financial market. Players can cry foul and fight it but that’s the way it’s probably going to go.
I’m not sure what the players should do. I kind of think that the players should make some concessions here because I do think there is a chance that the owners could just clamp down if they don’t, end the season and there will be massive cuts in free agency spending, contract extensions, etc. next year and beyond. The players should continue to fight, but they have to also see the big picture.
- InvincibleCakeEater
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Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 Season (Season Postponed, pg3)
The players have already made concessions.Fat Strat wrote: ↑May 12 20, 10:18 amI’m not sure what the players should do. I kind of think that the players should make some concessions here because I do think there is a chance that the owners could just clamp down if they don’t, end the season and there will be massive cuts in free agency spending, contract extensions, etc. next year and beyond. The players should continue to fight, but they have to also see the big picture.
- BottenFieldofDreams
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Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 Season (Season Postponed, pg3)
For who? Fans aren't even going to be allowed. If they're so worried about revenue, making soft pretzels for no one isn't helping. Idiots.InvincibleCakeEater wrote: ↑May 12 20, 12:37 pmThe players have already made concessions.Fat Strat wrote: ↑May 12 20, 10:18 amI’m not sure what the players should do. I kind of think that the players should make some concessions here because I do think there is a chance that the owners could just clamp down if they don’t, end the season and there will be massive cuts in free agency spending, contract extensions, etc. next year and beyond. The players should continue to fight, but they have to also see the big picture.
- heyzeus
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Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 Season (Season Postponed, pg3)
I would like a pretzel and baseball. I have a feeling I'm gonna get neither.
- mikechamp
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Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 Season (Season Postponed, pg3)
Well played, BottenFieldofDreams.BottenFieldofDreams wrote: ↑May 13 20, 9:22 amFor who? Fans aren't even going to be allowed. If they're so worried about revenue, making soft pretzels for no one isn't helping. Idiots.InvincibleCakeEater wrote: ↑May 12 20, 12:37 pmThe players have already made concessions.Fat Strat wrote: ↑May 12 20, 10:18 amI’m not sure what the players should do. I kind of think that the players should make some concessions here because I do think there is a chance that the owners could just clamp down if they don’t, end the season and there will be massive cuts in free agency spending, contract extensions, etc. next year and beyond. The players should continue to fight, but they have to also see the big picture.
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Magneto2.0
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Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 Season (Season Postponed, pg3)
I have no clue why when I use the "tweet" option, the Twitter link works half the time, and the other half of the time it doesn't. Annoying.
But, Blake Snell said on Twitch that it's not worth risking his life to play this season, and only get half the pay.
But, Blake Snell said on Twitch that it's not worth risking his life to play this season, and only get half the pay.
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tlombard
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Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 Season (Season Postponed, pg3)
I'd pitch for him for a tenth of his salary for half a season! Of course I also only have 1% of his talent at most so it still wouldn't be a good deal for the team.


