Marcell Ozuna Watch - (Update: Traded to Cards Pg. 13)

[Fat Strat]

I'm going to repost this here from another thread last week because it seems highly relevant again and I think it might inform our conversations now:


Lets dig in even deeper into Ozuna's numbers. Ozuna is coming off a 900+ OPS, 142 wRC+, season at age 26, which doesn't jive well with the rest of his career. So, who is like him? WHo can we comp him to? Because it factors in parks and environment, lets sort by wRC+ over 140 and age under 27 and go back to 2007.

The list of players who had at least 1 wRC+ season over 140, age 26 and below nets us 34 individual performances. Let's take out the top group -- 160 and up. They're too good. Lets also eliminate those who had multiple 140+ wRC+ seasons as they have already proven they can do what we hope Ozuna can do -- guys like Bryant, Rizzo, and McCutcheon are now off our list.

Here's what you are left with:
Paul Goldschmidt (1x)
Jose Altuve (1x)
Jose Ramirez (1x)
Yasiel Puig (1x)
Carlos Gonzalez (1x)
Ryan Zimmerman (1x)
Marcell Ozuna (1x)
Justin Upton (1x)
Giancarlo Stanton (1x)
Troy Tulowitzki (1x)
Alex Avila (1x)
Brandon Belt (1x)

That's a very encouraging list. There is not a bad player on that list. What players match up well with Ozuna?

Jose Ramirez -- Ramirez is basically in the same situation as Ozuna. He had his career year in '17. Like Ozuna, we don't know how his career is heading. His 140 wRC+ also came with a spike in ISO. However, he had a drop in his BABIP, so not a perfect match for Ozuna.

Brandon Belt -- his 140 wRC+ season came with the Giants in '13 when he also had a spike in ISO. He's never reached that mark again. But, since then, he does have two other seasons with a wRC+ over 130 and two seasons over 115. Not bad. Not awesome.

Ryan Zimmerman -- his season came in 2010 at age 26. He has been close to 140 several other times and has averaged 117 for his career. That includes two seasons in the low 100's in his early 20's. He's had 6 seasons over 119 since 2010. Not bad!

Yasiel Puig -- he is maybe the cautionary tale here. Puig had two high BABIP seasons in a row that produced a 140+ wRC+. One didn't show on my list because he didn't have enough PA's. Since then, Puig's BABIP has plummeted and his wRC+ has gone with it. He's topped out at 117 since. At the same time, Puig is not a bad player. Not at all.

Justin Upton -- Upton hit 140 in his mid 20's and hasn't found it since. He has, however, been a very good offensive player -- with 4 additional seasons over 119.

Carlos Gonzalez -- Gonzalez hit 140 wRC+ with a spike in his BABIP. His next few seasons went 126, 119, 146, 83 (injury), 116. The second 140+ wRC+ season came when his BABIP spiked again.

Goldschmidt hit 156 at age 25 and never looked back. Altuve has also continued to produce at a high level, but was running around the 130's before his 140 season. Tulowitzki is also not a good comp. Stanton was over 140 consistently, just didn't have the PA's to qualify for multiple seasons on my sort.


What's the take away here? Well, the really elite players on this list zoomed past 140 and stayed there. That doesn't seem to fit Ozuna. The rest of the list hit 140 in a career year and then continued to perform at a high level, though never elite -- averaging between 110-130 on a regular basis, with some ups and downs thrown in. That already fits with Ozuna's early career. His previous high in wRC+ was, not surprisingly when you consider this list, 116. So, just by his leaderboard comparables, there is every reason in the world to believe that Ozuna is not going to continue to be a 140 wRC+ hitter but every reason to think that he'll continue to perform between 110-130, year in and year out. Maybe he has another random career year where he touches 140 again but that will be balanced with the likely down year where he's in the 100 range.

My thoughts: This isn't quite the impact bat we're looking for. He would be just fine if he was acquired along with other players. But, by himself, I would like to see us try to do better. Good fall back plan... very similar to how I viewed Upton coming into this season (his option or opt out was picked up or something so he never hit FA).


Original thread and discussion: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=61903&start=90

[Magneto2.0]

Yelich is great but he doesn't really fill the void of what we were looking for.

[TimeForGuinness]

I feel bad the for the fans of Miami, seems like they're constantly getting kicked in the nuts

[tlombard]

If the Cards couldn't get Stanton, this is the guy I have wanted since last season. I know many on her prefer Yelich but I am much happier with Ozuna at this point. While Yelich would be an upgrade over anything else the Cards ran out there last year, I think a power bat will have more of an impact on the entire lineup and how they are pitched to.

If the Cards landed a power bat prior to this deal then I would have coveted Yelich over Ozuna easily (how nice would it be to have snagged both of them?) but I'm thrilled with the pickup with how things have played out so far this off season.

[letsgocards89]

[Fat Strat]

Goold's article - http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball ... 2c3d8.html

Good mentions a pitcher (as in 1) and an OF'er, likely Grichuk, because he also says we're likely to move on to a Piscotty to Oakland deal next.

[cardsfantx]

That sounds ominous,but it’s not hard to top the prospects in those deals combined

[TGantz]

I bet it's Alcantara and Grichuk.

[cardsfantx]

FWIW, matheny was just on MLBN and said there's possibly another bat coming soon (would assume matheny is kept in the loop)

[TimeForGuinness]

I bet it's Alcantara and Grichuk.

That is my guess as well.