Cardinals/Marlins Offseason Dance - Stanton Says Nope

[Michael]

I was going to make a joke about Bobby Grich until I looked at his stats. He was fantastic and my memory was playing tricks on me.

[phins]

On WAR Yelich is real dandy, no doubt. But if you look at only his hitting? He is very literally good-Piscotty. Career slugging of .460 or some sad number. He only has decent OPS+ numbers because he walks a ton and keeps his average up. I do not want any part of Yelich so long as we have defensive upside guys like Sierra and to an extent Grichuk and Pham in the system. Yelich would be great for the Giants, who have no true CF, but for us who have at least two or three? Why are you going to send value for someone we have a simulacrum of already?

I'd pay Yelich prices for Donaldson and cross my fingers for an extension coming from the trade.

Because saving runs on defense, or creating them on the bases counts just as much as hitting them.

"Only has a decent OPS+ because he walks a ton." I feel like I should walk around with a shirt on that screams, "Walks are good!!!"

I will simplify this: Getting on base = Good. Making lots of outs = Bad.

Onbase percentage is much, much more important than slugging percentage.

[JL21]

On WAR Yelich is real dandy, no doubt. But if you look at only his hitting? He is very literally good-Piscotty. Career slugging of .460 or some sad number. He only has decent OPS+ numbers because he walks a ton and keeps his average up. I do not want any part of Yelich so long as we have defensive upside guys like Sierra and to an extent Grichuk and Pham in the system. Yelich would be great for the Giants, who have no true CF, but for us who have at least two or three? Why are you going to send value for someone we have a simulacrum of already?

I'd pay Yelich prices for Donaldson and cross my fingers for an extension coming from the trade.

Well, walking a lot and keeping your average up are pretty good things to do.

I also think looking at only his hitting kind of ignores the fact that Yelich was much younger when he was putting up those numbers. And Yelich has been Good Piscotty™ several times now- not just the 15 months or so that Piscotty was. In fact, Yelich has always been right where Piscotty has been when he was Good Piscotty™ by wRC+ or probably any other offensive metric you want to use besides strictly SLG.

Plus, adding Yelich does not mean you have to displace Pham, or even Sierra for that matter. Sierra's upside is certainly questionable (and I'll be stunned if it's as good as Yelich barring major major changes to his game), and Grichuk... I mean, swapping out guys like Grichuk for guys like Yelich is exactly how you upgrade this team. You don't want an army of 2-3 WAR guys? Swap one out for a 4-5 win player.

EDIT: ha... glad I chose to phrase it as "walking a lot" is good given Phins phrasing before mine.

[Michael]

I simply do not understand how fans do not seem to think Yelich is a star.

Well rounded players are always the most underrated type of player by fans in baseball. Yelich fits that mold.

[JL21]

I simply do not understand how fans do not seem to think Yelich is a star. He's quite honestly a guy with a chance at the HOF if he unlocks his power more with a swing change to get more fly balls. As is, he's an All-Star level player in his prime.

It's the reactionary though-process that goes into having WAR as a public stat. You aren't wrong that he's a good player, but WAR comes in different ways and with Yelich it's not too hard to see it's coming from defense and walks. Do the Cardinals need someone who can be counted on to put up 5 wins or more for the next half-decade - obviously. But if things break right we have MCarp and Pham and Fowler to do that. I want a guy whose floor is 5 wins and who is going to have the potential to put up way more, and do it all on his merits at the plate. That's not Yelich. Yelich is not our biggest need. A power bat is our biggest need. He's pretty much M-Carp in center to my eyes.

This is fair- we all want 5+ WAR guys. But those guys are not easy to find, they're expensive unless something is wacky with their contract (ergo Donaldson and Stanton, who you can get via trade for less than you would on the open market), and they are almost never available.

And... really... is Vintage Matt Carpenter in CF a bad thing? Goodness, I think we'd all be very happy with that.

[JL21]

Just to reference the types of guys who become available via FA or trade this time of year, with the way the market has trended the last few years, I'll point back to this post.

Quick summary if you don't want to read it... Here's a list of guys who could reasonably be expected to be 3+ WAR guys, traded the last 3 off-seasons:

Before 2015: Upton, Heyward, Josh Donaldson

Before 2016: Andrelton Simmons, Todd Frazier

Before 2017: Sale, Eaton

And via free agency:

Before 2015: Max Scherzer.
Russell Martin was right on the cusp at 2.85. That's the list.

Before 2016: Heyward, Greinke, Price, Jordan Zimmermann, Johnny Cueto, Justin Upton.
Ian Desmond hit 2.85.

Before 2017: None.
Josh Reddick was closest at 2.88, then Encarnacion was there at 2.6, and then it falls all the way down to 2.29.

14 guys over 3 seasons with reasonable 3+ WAR expectations. And many of those serve as cautionary tales, like Heyward, Price, Zimmermann...

[misterManager]

JL + Phins I'll just say if you go over to bWAR -- he's been better than a 4-win player only once. And it turns out most of that value is from baserunning and offense, not defense, surprisingly. Which is to say I'm probably wrong that he's more valuable at the plate than I was admitting, but I'm also wrong that he's highly rated in the field. In both cases his trajectory is not exactly oriented towards the stars--he's still a good bit away from peak Carpenter to that point. Also if you can only hit 18HRs in a year where Elvis Andrus broke 20, I'm more than a little worried about your power potential.

I guess I don't see the need to add Yelich if he costs the same or more as Donaldson. Unless Miami is taking two of our center-fielders so that that depth is crossed out, I just don't think you make a move for another guy who is best suited in either the 2-spot or the 6-spot in the lineup, of which we have many already.

[go birds]

Holy [expletive], is Yelich ever being undersold here.

He's going to be 26 next year and he's had three years at 4.5 WAR or better. Here's a list of every hitter that's had 3 years of 4.5 WAR or better before age 26, since 1970, along with the number of times they've done it.

6 times
Mike Trout

5 times
Albert Pujols
Alex Rodriguez
Andruw Jones
Cal Ripken
Ken Griffey Jr.
Rickey Henderson

4 times
Barry Bonds
Cesar Cedeno
David Wright
Evan Longoria
George Brett
Grady Sizemore
Jason Heyward
Willie Randolph

3 times
Bobby Grich
Bryce Harper
Carl Crawford
Chet Lemon
Christian Yelich
Don Mattingly
Frank Thomas
Gary Carter
Hanley Ramirez
Johnny Bench
Jose Reyes
Kris Bryant
Manny Machado
Miguel Cabrera
Mookie Betts
Nomar Garciaparra
Robin Ventura
Ryan Zimmerman
Scott Rolen
Ted Simmons
Tim Raines
Troy Tulowitzki
Vladimir Guerrero

39 guys have done that in 47 years. And check out the names on that list. Even starting at the 3 times guys- let's skip the 4+ times guys... The 3 times list is littered with big-time contributors, some Hall of Famers, some Hall of Very Good, and pretty much no future busts. I would certainly call those guys cornerstones in a lineup.

Now, don't get me wrong. Donaldson is the better acquisition for 2018- he won't cost as much in return because of his contract. And he's a better impact bat. I'm not making that argument. But this talk of Yelich being Piscotty Part II is just silly. Even the good version of Piscotty, because you can't just wipe away his defense and baserunning.

Thank you for this

[Fat_Bulldog]

Why not more interest in Ozuna? He had a monster year last year with a 5.8 WAR.

[Farewell Friends]

Why not more interest in Ozuna? He had a monster year last year with a 5.8 WAR.

Less control, less history of production and fewer attributes than Yelich. But I still like him.