Cardinals/Marlins Offseason Dance - Stanton Says Nope

[JL21]

I've been 60 percent on Stanton happening. Foolishly going up to 65 percent, assuming San Francisco doesn't offer to take every bad contract on Miami's books. And I just don't see how the Dodgers could absorb that steep of a luxury tax.

It would really only be a hit for one year, as after 2018 Crawford and Gonzalez are off the books. They could send Puig and some other stuff to Miami in return to offset a portion of Stanton's 2018 salary.

Well.... yes and no.

From VEB, here's how much of a hit they'd take:

The Dodgers print money, but with taxes, Stanton’s contract is going to cost $40 million in 2018 on a team that already has a good rightfielder, two other competent outfielders, and doesn’t really need Stanton to win the division. He would also put the team close to going $40 million over the cap where the team’s top draft choice drops by ten spots, adding another cost to his acquisition.

I definitely think they could find a way to navigate around Stanton's salary if they really wanted to go to the trouble of it. They could try to find a taker for Puig, Ryu, Logan Forsythe, or Brandon McCarthy- guys who are free agents after this season, who have reasonable 2018 salaries (or in Puig's case, he's a FA after 2019 and you have to pay his arb. salary in 2019).

But I can't imagine they'd get anything close to full value for any of those guys. They'd pretty much have to do a salary dump on most of them and take next to nothing in return, and it's harder and harder to make those types of deals (the Stanton machinations alone show just how hard it is to dump salary like that anymore).

RE: the Marlins, I can't imagine they'd take much salary on in a potential Dodgers deal since the whole point of them making the deal is to clear as much salary as they can.

For some perspective, the Dodgers' payroll including arbitration is approximately in the $210-$215M already, without adding anything via FA or trades. The luxury tax threshold is $197M. For every dollar over $197M the Dodgers are, they have to pay 50% of it in luxury taxes. If they simply add Stanton for prospects (not subtracting payroll), that means they're paying $25M for Stanton, PLUS another $19-22M just for the right to have him. You'd have to shed both McCarthy and Puig just to come close to making it work out, payrollwise (they'd be paying an additional $2-3M in that case for Stanton, compared to the additional $19-22M if they don't shed any payroll after acquiring Stanton).

Basically, it can be done. But it's easy to see how they wouldn't want to go through the hassle, and it may not be worth it anyway. Puig and McCarthy ($20.71M in salary, and the two most expensive on my list from earlier) were worth 5.3 fWAR last year. Are Stanton plus a lesser pitcher worth an upgrade of ~1 to 2 wins for $28M?

[Hoot45]

Also, I wouldn't worry too much about Stanton's attitude or "pouting" as others wrote above. I'm guessing, but I imagine that Stanton's attitude is not anti-St Louis. It's probably not that he really doesn't want to be here. It's that he really wants to be in his hometown. When that option is eliminated, he'll be disappointed, but he'll likely also be ready and excited to play for us. All of the good things about StL will suddenly matter to him -- fans, playing environment, ST in Miami, winning potential -- when he can no longer dream about beaches and movie stars or whatever it is he likes about LA.

Right. We tend to downplay the whole St. Louis Cardinals experience because of the BFIB stigma, but new Cardinals and opposing players always gush about Opening Day, full stadiums even on weeknights, the winning tradition, etc. Stanton already knows what Spring Training is like because we share a stadium, so he has had plenty of encounters with the Faithful Red. Vomit-inducing BFIB claims aside, I genuinely believe any hesitation about St. Louis disappears once players put that jersey on.

[Farewell Friends]

Yeah, at some point the payroll shedding the Dodgers do to lessen the tax is going to subtract wins and make the whole thing a wash.

[JL21]

And... with the future payroll muscle they have after 2018, they could have a clean slate heading into the free agency cycle that includes Harper and Machado, plus Donaldson, Charlie Blackmon, Brian Dozier, and McCutchen, amongst others. And Kershaw has a ginormous player option for 2019, which he's probably going to opt out. They'll have to pay him or lose him. Same with Puig if they don't move him.

[MrCrowesGarden]

Also, I wouldn't worry too much about Stanton's attitude or "pouting" as others wrote above. I'm guessing, but I imagine that Stanton's attitude is not anti-St Louis. It's probably not that he really doesn't want to be here. It's that he really wants to be in his hometown. When that option is eliminated, he'll be disappointed, but he'll likely also be ready and excited to play for us. All of the good things about StL will suddenly matter to him -- fans, playing environment, ST in Miami, winning potential -- when he can no longer dream about beaches and movie stars or whatever it is he likes about LA.

Right. We tend to downplay the whole St. Louis Cardinals experience because of the BFIB stigma, but new Cardinals and opposing players always gush about Opening Day, full stadiums even on weeknights, the winning tradition, etc. Stanton already knows what Spring Training is like because we share a stadium, so he has had plenty of encounters with the Faithful Red. Vomit-inducing BFIB claims aside, I genuinely believe any hesitation about St. Louis disappears once players put that jersey on.

I'm not sure I agree. I don't know that reframing it as "it's not that player x doesn't want to play here, it's just that he wants to play somewhere else more" is useful. These whispers about reluctance for players to either play in St. Louis or for the Cardinals have been around for a while. There's probably something to it. It can be overcome, but it's not nothing.

[Hoot45]

Also, I wouldn't worry too much about Stanton's attitude or "pouting" as others wrote above. I'm guessing, but I imagine that Stanton's attitude is not anti-St Louis. It's probably not that he really doesn't want to be here. It's that he really wants to be in his hometown. When that option is eliminated, he'll be disappointed, but he'll likely also be ready and excited to play for us. All of the good things about StL will suddenly matter to him -- fans, playing environment, ST in Miami, winning potential -- when he can no longer dream about beaches and movie stars or whatever it is he likes about LA.

Right. We tend to downplay the whole St. Louis Cardinals experience because of the BFIB stigma, but new Cardinals and opposing players always gush about Opening Day, full stadiums even on weeknights, the winning tradition, etc. Stanton already knows what Spring Training is like because we share a stadium, so he has had plenty of encounters with the Faithful Red. Vomit-inducing BFIB claims aside, I genuinely believe any hesitation about St. Louis disappears once players put that jersey on.

I'm not sure I agree. I don't know that reframing it as "it's not that player x doesn't want to play here, it's just that he wants to play somewhere else more" is useful. These whispers about reluctance for players to either play in St. Louis or for the Cardinals have been around for a while. There's probably something to it. It can be overcome, but it's not nothing.

Dear Lord, please spare us another 10 page cycle of debating whether St. Louis is a competitive destination anymore for players. All I am saying here is that I agree that "pouting" isn't something I'm concerned about. Even if Stanton were hesitant about St. Louis, I think he would quickly learn to enjoy the situation once he puts that jersey on.

[MrCrowesGarden]

If he accepts a trade, I'm not worried about it either. He would've accepted the trade to get here after all.

But thanks for pinning it on me.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yeah, at some point the payroll shedding the Dodgers do to lessen the tax is going to subtract wins and make the whole thing a wash.

I think if they really wanted to do that, they could do so without a ton of pain. Ryu, McCarthy, and Grandal could all be moved without needing to be given away, they add up to more than Stanton's salary but aren't all that crucial to their team, and after next year Gonzalez's money basically goes straight to Stanton.

I think the bigger issue is that the Dodgers probably aren't all that interested in Stanton. Nothing Friedman has done as a GM points to him being overly interested in giving out that type of contract, and even if he's going to change his stripes a bit, he probably would prefer to wait for a shot at Harper or Machado when they have far less in guaranteed money on the books and they get more prime years out of the deal. Kershaw's opt out is a complicating factor, but from an AAV/luxury tax standpoint it's not an enormous consideration.

I do think the rumored Giants package from several pages back is more attractive than is given credit for, in particular a guy like Panik who has a 4 win season on his resume and a reason to think he might tick up offensively without 100 games in AT&T/Dodger Stadium/Petco. But I think the Giants want to stay under the luxury tax this year even more than the Dodgers do, so even though they may be more willing to have a package that the Marlins would prefer, they're still going to need to do some finagling(e.g. trade Samardzija and/or Melancon), especially if they're willing/want to take on Gordon.

[Jocephus]

fwiw

We Don’t Really Know How Giancarlo Stanton Will Age

by Eno Sarris - November 28, 2017

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/we-dont ... -will-age/

i'm just posting the final paragraph

When you try to figure out how Stanton will age, there are as many different ways to attack the question as there are players out on the field, in a way. And while assigning each of his outcomes a likelihood is critical to how you much you want your team to go get him, it’s still a guessing game. Is he Paul O’Neill? Or Tom Brunansky?

[Jocephus]

Jon Morosi of MLB Network notes that the Marlins have not set any sort of deadline for "last, best offers" in the Giancarlo Stanton trade talks.
Morosi says there is "no sign they plan to do so" in advance of the Winter Meetings, either. The lack of movement on Stanton seems to be holding up any potential activity on the free agent market, though you can't fault the Marlins for practicing patience with this deal. Stanton carries a full no-trade clause in his $325 million mega-contract and is said to prefer a move to Los Angeles, but the Giants and Cardinals would appear to be the most aggressive suitors at this point in the offseason. Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reported on Tuesday that the new ownership group in Miami told Stanton that they "would look to trade off other top players to reduce payroll" if they can't find a landing spot to the slugger's liking this winter. Stanton, meanwhile, has stated that he does want to be on a rebuilding team.
Source: Jon Morosi on Twitter
Nov 29 - 11:44 AM