Random musings

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Heading to Vegas this weekend for my b-day. May the poker gods shine a light on to me.

Good luck man. Let me ask you about this hand I played nye.

Actually, two hands.

Was playing at the Lumiere in StL. About 1am. Pretty decent game. A couple guys drinking with lots of money and had been at the Blues/Blackhawks old timers game or whatever. Lot's of drunk kids coming in and out with $100 into the $1/3 game. One solid player to my left.

Anyway, I get KJo on the button. Bump it up to $10. Both blinds call and a guy in MP calls. Flop comes KJ10 two hearts. SB checks, BB pops it for $25 MP folds, and I raise to $75. SB folds and BB calls. The turn comes Qo. He checks and this is where I think I really messed up when I checked back. I was worried about BB holding the A, but no way a nut straight checks with two hearts on the board, right? Right?!?!

River comes A of hearts so the board has an ace high straight with 3 hearts. BB bombs it all in for about $125 into a ~$200 pot. I go into the tank and can't pull the trigger to call. Only thing that made sense was suited connectors. Call $10 preflop without closing the action. Donk bet the flop and call raise (leaving less than 3/4 pot sized bet let), check turn, bomb river when the hearts get there. I ask if he has 56h and apparently you can't do that. But he smiles and I muck. He shows me 67h. Don't know if I bombed the turn if he'd have folded. $125 to call and win ~$450 and he's got what about 20% to hit his flush. In hindsight that was the right play, I think. AK probably reraises flop along with AQ. AJ/A10 probably folds the raise on the flop, I think. Regardless, neither check the turn.

Assuming there was one limper I like your pre-flop raise size. I like the flop raise on the donk bet.

You can bet the turn, but if you get called you're most likely behind, unless it's a flush draw so I think the check is correct. If you get raised if you bet on the turn it's puke time. So a turn bet is basically a bluff, not a value bet. Here's the other thing - as you note if the villian is on a flush draw it has a 20% chance of coming in, which is unlikely. That means if the flush doesn't come in you can consider picking off a bluff on the river.

Now for the river - A fold sucks in that spot but you can only beat a bluff. I tend to believe small stakes players when they jam all in in this spot. Plus flatting the flop raise screams draw. Bluffs tend to be a smaller bet size, but even that is rare. The lowest limit players aren't very good at turning made hands in to bluffs.

I typed that up without reading the result. Now going to look...

tough hand.
...

See, this is what I was thinking at the time. He may have an Ace to complete the straight, or 89 to make the non-nut straight. I guess KQ can be in there as well. But, really, after reviewing it 100 times inmy head, I don't know. I definitely get what you're saying that a check is a good option and re-evaluate on the river. Getting check-raised off my equity in that scenario is...not good.

But, I just can't get past the fact that it's not clear what I have. I have something, but that something can be a very wide range at this point. It could be anywhere from King with a strong kicker, to two pair, to a suited Axh with a made straight and redraw to the flush, to a pure bluff very rarely, to trips of almost any card on the board probably sans queens. Opening the pot, even on the button, then re-raising the flop pretty much narrows my range to some type of hand that has broadway cards.

So, the obvious negative to betting is getting it in bad. It's unlikely I'm getting pushed off the hand if I raise at this point with V only having $125 left. Which I guess means the negative isn't so much folding my equity as it is just getting owned by an A or 89 or KQ or whatever. But, how in the world does V get to that point? What's his range? Every time I come back to it, here's how I funnel it down:
After the pre-flop action:

AK AQ likely a 3 bet as is KK, QQ, JJ, 1010 probably 99 and maybe 88. I'm eliminating all those. Everything else is fair game at this point: AXh, AXo, k-10 combos, suited connectors. That basically covers a huge range of hands.

After the flop donk:

I don't know what the book says to do with AJ A10 type hands here, but even if he didn't 3 bet them, after the flop 1. we block AJ and 2. it makes no sense to donk with either. So, let's eliminate those. What's left? AXh, AXo, and KQ/KJ/K10. I don't know why you'd donk with these KX hands knowing that the button is likely to bet, but I can see it....so let's say it's possible. AXh definitely makes sense. Inside straight draw, nut flush draw, scary board. Okay. AXh is a strong possibility. Donk betting with AXo seems very unlikely. There's some equity, but it's definitely preferable to see a free card, or pay the least amount possible for a card. So, I'm ruling that out. Then there's suited connectors. It makes some sense to lead with these though I wouldn't do it. Still, same as AXh. Scary board, flush draw, unlikely the button has hearts, etc. Let's condense it to say his range after leading out is: AXh, K/QJ10, suited connectors.

We obviously block the KX hands as well, not to say V couldn't have one, it's just less likely.

Now we raise and V flats. Is a KJ/K10 really going to peel a card here? I don't know, but with barely a pot sized bet left, I'd be mighty tempted to ship it. That's just me, and I don't know if V would do the same, but it seems to be the best play given that there are a ton of draws and it's really time to [expletive] or get off the pot for V. If V has two pair and is going to continue, he's got to be ready to put it all in. And, after a decent sized re-raise, this is the time for it. So, I'm eliminating them which is easy to do after the fact but this was pretty much my thought process after the river shove. Should have done it before checking, but live and learn I guess.

All that's left are AXh, suited connectors, and KQ.

Then the Q comes and he checks. For the same reason I eliminated KJ/K10, I'm taking KQ out of his range here too. All that leaves is suited connectors and AXh. AXh gets there, adn we're in bad shape if that's what he's holding. And, if he somehow got here with AXo, that's definitely a bet. So we can elminitate that with near 100% certainty after he checks. It's almost impossible for him to hold anything other than AXh or suited connectors.

At this point betting is terrible if he has the AXh. We've got 4 cards to give us a boat to take the pot and 2 cards to chop. That's what just over 10%. Obviously not good. Still there's 7 non-gapped connectors plus, say, 4 1-gappers he could have vs 8 AXh hands.

After the Ah falls on the river, all AXh are gone and dude has to have suited connectors. Or nothing and is playing on a different level this one particular hand.

Now back to the pros/cons. Cons of shipping it after the turn are facing a straight and having ~10% to get out without losing the pot. Pros, though, are protecting a hand like KJ from getting sucked out on the river if V folds and punishing draws. In the end, it's tough. And, I certainly understand the argument to check the river. But, in a game like this, I feel it may have been the right play.

Though I will say this happened early in the session and it made me feel pretty damn good to call out his hand like that and it gave a bunch of confidence going forward.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

I agree AQ is light there. From a GTO persepctive if you thought he was a bluffer it's better to flat in that spot so the V can continue his bluff. By jamming you might let garbage off the hook. That said, I can't believe he called it off with AQ with 400 more behind. What a mega donk. You got your money in way good. Congrats.

Not sure if you saw this post.

Thanks, yeah. Hey, at least it was close

I don't think you're playing bad at all.

From a GTO perspective it's key to vary your pre flop raise sizing based on the number of limpers. I typically do the following:

1/2 is 8+2 (1 limp, $10, 2 limpers $12, etc)
1/3 is 10+3
2/5 sometimes I do 15+5 but typically 20+5. I almost always stay consistant during the session
5/10 is 30+10

You can argue at 1/2 and 1/3 you should vary because no one is paying attenion and typically those players have no idea what is going on, but personally I like to be balanced so I don't level myself. My pre-flop raise sizing almost never has anything to do with my hand strength. The only time I might mix things up is when I have a great hand and there a super crazy drunk, etc.

LOL. I used to be that drunk guy. Well, not that drunk guy but a guy just having fun, drinking, etc. After playing a couple times and watch people waddle up with $150 and watching it go bye bye in 30 minutes, I realize why other people liked me so much

Thanks for the advice. Makes a lot of sense re:sizing pre-flop.

[Michael]

I feel the check on the turn is the standard line there and you're over thinking it. Remember, picking off a bluff on the river (you have position) is also super +EV. Plus you can still value bet the river if the V checks. Not to mention you have a small chance (~8%) of boating up which is awesome. The board runout just sucked. Poker is a an exceptionally cruel game with no sense of justice. You just have to accept that.

I think the river is a way tougher spot.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Definitely could be. With no casinos around, and being rather leary of underground games nowadays, I don't get to play but once in a blue moon, so all I have to do is rethink past hands.

[Michael]

Definitely could be. With no casinos around, and being rather leary of underground games nowadays, I don't get to play but once in a blue moon, so all I have to do is rethink past hands.

If you want the truth, in the grand scheme of things these super crazy hands are dramatic, but I suspect if you ran that hand through a simulator a million times the EV differece between a check and a bet on the turn most likely isn't that huge. Same with a call vs fold on the river. In the long run the improper pre flop raise sizing is a bigger leak because it happens way more often. Solid fundamentals for things like pre-flop ranges, pre-flop raise sizing, c-betting strategy and proper turn barreling is where the money is made in cash games.

That QQ vs AQ hand was super sick.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Here's something that I just don't like about GTO and how it influences play. Actually, I'd been thinking about this for a while but Alec Torelli made a video about it yesterday which made me think even more about it. Anyway, GTO seems to be set up for long sessions and lots of hands. For average players, we don't get into sample sizes big enough to ever see the payoff.

Should a guy call in the scenario we were talking about (KJ with a straight on the river) because if he doesn't, he's exploitable? Well, sure, it's a hole if the scenario happens 20 times in 5 hours. But, a hand like that only comes around once a year for many people. I play, maybe, 50 hours a year if that. While GTO says I probably should have called or should call some % of the time, I feel much more comfortable going with reads and range building as opposed to thinking about GTO. JMO, and I know understand the concept. I just struggle to incorporate it because, well, it's tough to not play one hand at a time.

Speaking of Alec Torelli, I don't know if you follow poker guys online, but Doug Polk is another guy and he seems to be the king of game theory.

[Michael]

I agree with live games pure GTO makes no sense because exploitive is more profitable. I'm certain my folding to player aggression is exploitable, but in live games it makes sense because players don't exploit me. That said, as a player there's lots of lessons to be learned from GTO even in live games. You have to know the rules in order to effectively break them.

I love Doug Polk.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Yeah. He's good. I like torellis hand of the day vids a little bit more than Polk's but both are awesome.

Here's another hand to discuss. I was SB. 2 limpers. Looked down at pocket 7s. I am never really sure what to do with these middle pps. So I default to raising. 20. BB defends and button calls. Not really loving life right now but we see a flop.

3 5 8. I check though after the session I felt betting would have been the better play. Pretty good flop for 77. Anyway, SB leads out 40. Button folds and I call. Really hating life. Turn brings a queen and I check and BB checks. River is another 8. At this point I contemplated a bet but checked. BB checks and asks if I have 7s. I said haha. Yeah do you have 6s? He flipped over the 6s.

I think c betting was way to go here especially on that flop.

[Michael]

In the SB I tend to limp a long in that spot. If you flop a set you can win a monster in a multi way pot. That said, a raise isn't unreasonable. Pocket 9s is most likey the bottom of my rasing range. It depends. I like your river check because it looks like the button was trying to steal the pot although he had an actual hand.

Edit -. The weird c bet spot is one of the reasons I don't like raising with that hand out of position. It's easy to get lost.

Also we should make a poker thread

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

In the SB I tend to limp a long in that spot. If you flop a set you can win a monster in a multi way pot. That said, a raise isn't unreasonable. Pocket 9s is most likey the bottom of my rasing range. It depends. I like your river check because it looks like the button was trying to steal the pot although he had an actual hand.

Edit -. The weird c bet spot is one of the reasons I don't like raising with that hand out of position. It's easy to get lost.

Also we should make a poker thread

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