Jay Jaffe's NL Central comments
Posted: September 22 26, 12:42 pm
These comments came from a chat with FanGraphs' writer Jay Jaffe that occurred on September 22. If you like him, you can find him on BlueSky at https://bsky.app/profile/jayjaffe.bsky.social.
One less NL Central question this time, and 2 bonus Q&As about the greatest baseball movie. Enjoy!
The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffe-f ... t-9-22-26/
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There is a chance, and at this time a very large chance, that the Red Sox-Cubs series in Boston will have serious weather problems as a strong northeaster will linger near the coast for the entire weekend. What is the scenario if the Cubs do not play some or all of these games?
Jay Jaffe
I haven’t seen the weather report but we’ve seen in the past from extreme situations like hurricanes that MLB is willing to move playoff-relevant games to a neutral site in the case of weather issues. Moving to Chicago but having the Cubs play as the visitor might be another alternative.
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On paper, Atlanta’s been one of the better teams in the league this year. But as they head into the playoffs, it’s hard to think too optimistically about their chances – the pitching staff is Chris Sale and pray for rain, and the offense consists of a lot of veterans having down years (Albies, Riley, Kim, Murphy, Acuña). Maybe Mahle is an okay playoff starter, and maybe some of the vets turn it around against the October gas, but how do you handicap the squad?
Jay Jaffe
The reality is that most of the Braves’ competition has issues as well. For the Dodgers, Ohtani is dealing with injuries, Freeman’s knee is an issue, and who knows how quickly Pages will recover his pre-injury form. The Phillies don’t look as strong as they did entering the postseason last year, and — I’ll say it — their manager isn’t as good either. We’re all wondering whether this is the Brewers’ year, but really, it’s just a matter of which team gets hot, and it wouldn’t surprise me if, like, Austin Riley (to pull an example out of thin air rather than basing it on any underlying data) suddenly plays like an All-Star again for a month.
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Paul Skenes recently attributed much of his struggles this year to the WBC. 1. How much do you believe that vs deflecting blame and 2. A lot of WBC players have had subpar or straight up bad years. Is that a real effect or just usual fluctuations?
Jay Jaffe
Presumably, he’s still dealing with the embarrassment caused by that “almost served in the military” nonsense.
I think it’s the easiest cop out to blame the WBC. While we do remember the major injuries, historically plenty of guys have had no trouble after participating, so I don’t put much stock in his complaint. Nor do I have much sympathy, as Skenes and Team USA were particularly chest-thumpy, humorless, and disgustingly militaristic about representing this country. (see also Cal Raleigh).
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Some chatter among Reds fans about who is more responsible for the morbid state of the franchise, the FO or ownership. Clearly plenty of blame to go around, but until the Castellinis et al sell the team, ownership will remain a problem. So, in what world could this ownership group possibly bring Nick Krall back? The track record is abysmal.
Jay Jaffe
it all starts with ownership, because for however much you want to heap the blame on Krall for some of his choices not panning out, those choices can’t be separated from the limitations placed upon him. Just last year, he was getting plaudits for the Reds making the postseason for the first time (in a full season) since 2013. The problem is larger than him.
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Castellinis… Where else ya gonna go? Anyone who spends their money on the team after hearing that line… fool me once…
Jay Jaffe
Yeah, that was a death sentence for the current ownership — and he said that in 2022, one full CBA ago.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/337 ... ul-ask-for
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How’d you rank Field of Dreams, Bull Durham, and League of Their Own amongst themselves?
Jay Jaffe
I don’t think Field of Dreams belongs in the same sentence as the other two. Those are great — among the best baseball movies ever made — but FoD stinks on ice for reasons that I and others have elaborated elsewhere.
The original Bad News Bears is the greatest baseball movie, of course.
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Are you anti-all Kinsella or just applying modern views to 1986 (lack of Negro league inclusion)? I would argue that some of the Thrill of the Grass and the Iowa Baseball Confederacy are quite good baseball lit.
Jay Jaffe
I haven’t read any Kinsella so I’m only reacting to the movie, but you can shove that James Earl Jones speech up Kevin Costner’s ass for the way the movie fails to acknowledge segregation.
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One less NL Central question this time, and 2 bonus Q&As about the greatest baseball movie. Enjoy!
The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffe-f ... t-9-22-26/
-----------------------------------------------------------------
There is a chance, and at this time a very large chance, that the Red Sox-Cubs series in Boston will have serious weather problems as a strong northeaster will linger near the coast for the entire weekend. What is the scenario if the Cubs do not play some or all of these games?
Jay Jaffe
I haven’t seen the weather report but we’ve seen in the past from extreme situations like hurricanes that MLB is willing to move playoff-relevant games to a neutral site in the case of weather issues. Moving to Chicago but having the Cubs play as the visitor might be another alternative.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
On paper, Atlanta’s been one of the better teams in the league this year. But as they head into the playoffs, it’s hard to think too optimistically about their chances – the pitching staff is Chris Sale and pray for rain, and the offense consists of a lot of veterans having down years (Albies, Riley, Kim, Murphy, Acuña). Maybe Mahle is an okay playoff starter, and maybe some of the vets turn it around against the October gas, but how do you handicap the squad?
Jay Jaffe
The reality is that most of the Braves’ competition has issues as well. For the Dodgers, Ohtani is dealing with injuries, Freeman’s knee is an issue, and who knows how quickly Pages will recover his pre-injury form. The Phillies don’t look as strong as they did entering the postseason last year, and — I’ll say it — their manager isn’t as good either. We’re all wondering whether this is the Brewers’ year, but really, it’s just a matter of which team gets hot, and it wouldn’t surprise me if, like, Austin Riley (to pull an example out of thin air rather than basing it on any underlying data) suddenly plays like an All-Star again for a month.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Paul Skenes recently attributed much of his struggles this year to the WBC. 1. How much do you believe that vs deflecting blame and 2. A lot of WBC players have had subpar or straight up bad years. Is that a real effect or just usual fluctuations?
Jay Jaffe
Presumably, he’s still dealing with the embarrassment caused by that “almost served in the military” nonsense.
I think it’s the easiest cop out to blame the WBC. While we do remember the major injuries, historically plenty of guys have had no trouble after participating, so I don’t put much stock in his complaint. Nor do I have much sympathy, as Skenes and Team USA were particularly chest-thumpy, humorless, and disgustingly militaristic about representing this country. (see also Cal Raleigh).
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Some chatter among Reds fans about who is more responsible for the morbid state of the franchise, the FO or ownership. Clearly plenty of blame to go around, but until the Castellinis et al sell the team, ownership will remain a problem. So, in what world could this ownership group possibly bring Nick Krall back? The track record is abysmal.
Jay Jaffe
it all starts with ownership, because for however much you want to heap the blame on Krall for some of his choices not panning out, those choices can’t be separated from the limitations placed upon him. Just last year, he was getting plaudits for the Reds making the postseason for the first time (in a full season) since 2013. The problem is larger than him.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Castellinis… Where else ya gonna go? Anyone who spends their money on the team after hearing that line… fool me once…
Jay Jaffe
Yeah, that was a death sentence for the current ownership — and he said that in 2022, one full CBA ago.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/337 ... ul-ask-for
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How’d you rank Field of Dreams, Bull Durham, and League of Their Own amongst themselves?
Jay Jaffe
I don’t think Field of Dreams belongs in the same sentence as the other two. Those are great — among the best baseball movies ever made — but FoD stinks on ice for reasons that I and others have elaborated elsewhere.
The original Bad News Bears is the greatest baseball movie, of course.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Are you anti-all Kinsella or just applying modern views to 1986 (lack of Negro league inclusion)? I would argue that some of the Thrill of the Grass and the Iowa Baseball Confederacy are quite good baseball lit.
Jay Jaffe
I haven’t read any Kinsella so I’m only reacting to the movie, but you can shove that James Earl Jones speech up Kevin Costner’s ass for the way the movie fails to acknowledge segregation.
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