10/8 GM 2 GDT: Phillies(Nola) vs Cardinals(Mikolas) 7:37 PM CT

[CardsofSTL]

Phillies vs Cardinals
7:37 PM CT - October 8, 2022
Busch Stadium - St. Louis, MO
Listen: Phillies - 94 WIP/Cardinals - KMOX 1120
Watch: ESPN2

[CardsofSTL]

[CardsofSTL]

[Jocephus]

The St. Louis Cardinals are 53-29 at home this season and the Philadelphia Phillies are 41-41 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Both starters have a good chance of having a quality start. Miles Mikolas has a 55% chance of a QS and Aaron Nola a 51% chance. If Miles Mikolas has a quality start the Cardinals has a 69% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.7 and he has a 43% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Cardinals win 55%. If Aaron Nola has a quality start the Phillies has a 68% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.2 and he has a 36% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Phillies win 51%. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the St. Louis Cardinals is Paul Goldschmidt who averaged 2.24 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 38% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Cardinals have a 67% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Philadelphia Phillies is Bryce Harper who averaged 1.97 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 32% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Phillies have a 63% chance of winning.

[CardsofSTL]

Game 2 of the best-of-three Wild Card Series is Saturday at 8:37 p.m. ET/7:37 p.m. CT on ESPN2.

Bryce Harper could slide back into the No. 3 spot after hitting cleanup against a lefty in Game 1. Brandon Marsh should return to the lineup in center field with a right-hander in Mikolas on the mound.

Cardinals: Juan Yepez, who hit the first go-ahead pinch-hit homer in Cardinals postseason history in Game 1, likely did enough to earn a start against Nola. In an effort to get more hitting into the lineup, the Cardinals might slide Lars Nootbaar to center field in place of Dylan Carlson and start Corey Dickerson and Yepez at the two corner outfield spots. St. Louis also desperately needs production from leading MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt, who went 0-for-3 Friday to continue his late-season slide.

[CardsofSTL]

Pitching Matchup

Phillies: Aaron Nola

Nola (11-13, 3.25 ERA) will make the first postseason start of his career. He has made 203 career regular-season starts, second most among active pitchers without a postseason appearance. Nola is coming off one of his best outings of the season, beginning with 6 2/3 perfect innings on Monday in Houston, when the Phillies clinched the third NL Wild Card.

Cardinals: Miles Mikolas

Mikolas (12-13, 3.29 ERA) doesn’t have a flashy record, but he has been arguably the Cardinals’ best pitcher from start to finish. The right-hander reached his goal of 200 innings by throwing a career-best 202 1/3 innings, and he was among the NL leaders in ERA for most of the season.

[CardsofSTL]

Notable Injuries


Cardinals

The Cardinals are likely to be without Helsley, who exited Friday’s game feeling numbness in the right middle finger he jammed earlier in the week. Whether he’d be available for a potential Game 3 will be determined after the Cardinals’ medical team reviews the MRI conducted on Helsley’s finger following the Game 1. Helsley was close to automatic throughout the regular season while going 9-1 with a 1.25 ERA and converting 19 of 23 save chances.

[Jocephus]

to have to watch that clusterfvck ending and then wait all day for hte last game to try and tie the series...pain

[CardsofSTL]

On the bright side, if the Cardinals lose today I have a tentative agreement with DeWitt to open a Spirit Halloween store in Busch Stadium.

[SunnyJim]

Nola's career line v Cardinals.

Code: Select all

     	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	WHIP	SO9	SO/W
STL	5	3	.625	2.69	9	9	0	1	1	0	60.1	37	18	18	7	11	1	66	1	0	0	229	0.796	9.8	6.00