Steve Adams' NL Central comments

[mikechamp]

These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' writer Steve Adams that occurred on March 10. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social.)

A couple more questions than last week, and one bonus Q&A: the "Bill James" question is back!! Enjoy!

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://live.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with ... 24069.html
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Honest thoughts on the Reds?

Steve Adams
Had one of the five best rotations in baseball prior to the Greene news. That drops them down a ways (though obviously there's a lot of upside if it gets someone like Lowder into the rotation).

I don't love the bullpen. Their fixation on dedicating a significant portion of their limited payroll to one of the most homer-prone relievers in baseball and having him close games in their bandbox park is weird, but Emilio Pagan posted decent numbers last year (with the help of a few game-saving home run robberies).

Offense should be improved with Geno there, possible full seasons of Stewart, Stephenson, Friedl ... better health from Elly.

I think they're probably behind Chicago and Milwaukee for me in the NL Central, but not by so much that a few breakouts for the Reds and/or a key injury or two elsewhere can't make it a tight race. They should be in Wild Card contention at least.
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With Austin hurt and assuming Ballesteros and Shaw make the team. Who do you think gets the Cubs last 2 bench spots?

Steve Adams
I'll go Chas McCormick and (assuming he returns this week from the minor elbow issue) Jonathon Long.
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Volpe and S.Jones for Elly. Who says no?

Steve Adams
Reds without any real hesitation.
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Bohm + low level guy lottery pick for Ashby, who says no?

Steve Adams
Brewers

They don't have space for Bohm's $10MM+ salary, even if they ship Ashby back the other way, and I'm not even convinced Bohm is markedly better than Luis Rengifo anyhow.
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My Brewers Rotation: 1. Woodruff 2. Miz 3. Priester 4. Chad Patrick 5. ???? Henderson, Harrison, Sproat, or Gasser for the 5? Do any others end up in the bullpen?

Steve Adams
If everyone's healthy, Henderson gets that five spot for me -- but he's already dealing with some elbow inflammation, and Priester seems like he has a good chance to land on the IL. Every team is going to have a lot of guys who start 10+ games for them. Brewers won't be an exception.

Team leaders in starts, health permitting, would be Woodruff, Miz, Priester, Patrick and Henderson for me -- but Harrison (who I assume is next up), Sproat and Gasser will all make 8+ starts. I think Ashby and Hall end up in the 'pen but feel Ashby could make some starts, too. Drohan could pitch in both roles.
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Could CES bring back a decent middle bullpen arm in a change of scenery move?

Steve Adams
I don't think so, no. There's a good chunk of the league that would probably pass on claiming him off waivers.

26 years old, limited to the INF corners (primarily 1B), short side of a platoon, low walk rate, fair bit of swing-and-miss. It's not a skill set teams want. Rhys Hoskins just took a non-guaranteed $1.5MM from Cleveland.
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With abysmal 2025 year and still hitting 20 HR's and 35+ SB's, is it possible that O'Neil Cruz can be a 40-40 guy?

Steve Adams
Absolutely can be a 40-40 guy.
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Steve the fortune teller, please tell me the Cards will have one player hit 20 homeruns this year.

Steve Adams
They'll have more than one!

Put me down for Burleson, Wetherholt and Ivan Herrera.
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(Someone pretending to be Nick Kurtz wrote:)

Steve, I want to go home and play in Pittsburgh. Would Paul Skenes be a fair trade for me straight up?

Steve Adams
Kurtz rules, but the Pirates can't trade Skenes even in that scenario.
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How soon would we expect 26 man rosters to be announced? Waiting on a Wetherholt 2b announcement.

Steve Adams
I'll be shocked if Wetherholt isn't on the Cards' roster, but they probably won't formally announce it until next week at least. No reason to do so two weeks out.
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Do you see the Reds going after someone like Giolito for safety or just stick with the young options?

Steve Adams
President of baseball ops Nick Krall already said he didn't envision going back to free agency. I doubt they have much money to spend anyhow.
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I would add Gorman to the 20hr list for this year.

Steve Adams
Maybe, but I feel like if he's hitting well in July he'll be traded. My thinking was he could have a 20-HR season but still not hit 20 as a Cardinal.
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Mark P never gave a direct answer, but do you think baseball is better or worse off since I created baseball-related sabermetrics and algorithms? Some people used to look at the back of a baseball card and make their entire assessment of a player, whereas once I popularized them, if an MLB GM did not go by the Bill James Handbook, they were ostracized and likely had their team finishing up in the cellar. Was baseball easier and more fun before me? I'll hang up and listen.

Steve Adams
I didn't see Mark's reply, but it's a subjective question so of course there was no direct answer. If Bill James didn't pioneer so much of the incorporation of data into baseball decision-making, someone else would have. The arrival of more sophisticated data to evaluate players was a foregone conclusion. Even fans who like things like pitcher wins/losses can acknowledge how flawed the stats are. A pitcher "win" can include 8 shutout innings and 16 strikeouts or 5 1/3 innings with 7 runs allowed -- but on a day when your mound opponent was torched for 9 runs ... someone was always going to come along and say "This is silly. Just like it's silly to penalize a pitcher with an 'earned' run because his second baseman lost a pop-up in the sun".

I grew up watching baseball in the 80s and 90s but love the influx of data in the modern game. The game itself remains fun to watch regardless of what information I'm using to determine player values and such. I just like baseball.
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