Prospects and Walks

[33anda3rd]

Great job by phins with his roundup, I look forward to reading that post every year. I'm going to pick a nit with it, though, and I didn't want to derail the talk of the Phins Top 21 with it.

The other issue that could come up for Taveras to limit his tools from actualizing is his plate discipline. A walk rate under 5% if not a great indicator in most cases, especially for a power hitter without a lot of speed.

We have to get past this. Prodigiously talented hitters with remarkable plate coverage, bat speed, ability to adjust, power, and ball-to-bat skill like Taveras and Adams (and both those guys have all of those five things in spades) need to stop being judged on their minor league walk rates, like, immediately.

You know who needs to walk a bunch more? Mark Reynolds, who has power but no bat-to-ball skill. Miguel Sano and Javier Baez, who have elite power but meh at best hit tools. Those guys need to learn to walk more, so that their value (power) is not sapped by out-making. Guys like Taveras who just hit period don't need to be force-fed the walk when they're hitting .320 career in the minors and their modest walk rate is putting their OBP in the 370-380 range. Anthony Rizzo--hit the crap out of the ball in the minors, came to the majors, and boy can he take a walk but he's not as valuable as he should be because he's too busy taking walks instead of driving pitches for doubles. Dustin Ackley, probably wrecked for a short time there (before he was sent to AAA and told "just hit") by SEA force-feeding him the walk.

The walk has gone from the most underrated thing--because people didn't appreciate it when players who didn't hit great took walks--to the most over-used measure of a player's talent because some players don't have to walk a lot to be productive and everyone from saberists to the conventional-wisdom crowd to scouts have taken up the banner of the walk. Carlos Gomez walked 6.3% of the time last year, and was just as productive offensively as as Carlos Santana, who walked over 14% of the time, and Yadier Molina who walked only 5.5% of the time, and Evan Longoria, who walked 10% of the time. That all four of them can be equally productive (by wOBA) while taking wildly different (from very low to very high) amounts of walks, is important to remember.

There's no number of walks a player needs to get to to be productive, they need simply to use the tool kit they have and get the most out of it. If they can add some walks and increase their value, great, but not everyone needs to have a double-digit walk rate to be a good, productive offensive player. Does Taveras get the most out of the toolkit he has? You bet. Should it be reproducable at the highest level? Yes. Does it need to be altered to take his power and bat-to-ball skill away in favor of walking? I believe it does not.

[phins]

To be fair, I also stated why Taveras should not be judged negatively for that alone. Additionally, the section that statement came from is entitled: "What could go wrong."

It is true that traditionally we haven't seen many power hitters be stars with a walk rate under 5%, but we don't see a huge correlation between walk rate and superstardom either. We see a much higher correlation to K% for busts and Taveras is elite in that regard (pitch recognition and especially bag control).

I certainly appreciate the feedback though...helps me think, learn and grow.

[33anda3rd]

I think there's a supposition that minor league hitters will see their BB rate go down in MLB because the pitching is tougher. I think another supposition should be made that their BB rate will go up--and by more than it goes down b/c of tougher pitching--because they're playing in games where the other team is trying to win, not practice. Taveras will get walks as a MLBer that he doesn't get in the minors because he'll be pitched around sometimes. He'll get an extra 1% of BB just in IBB--five in 500 PA--that he never gets in the minors. He'll get more when pitchers are nibbling in competitive games instead of being told to "go out and work on your fastball location for 70 pitches, then we'll pull ya, kid." You'd be hard pressed to find many very good to great hitters who walk less as major leaguers than they did in the minors. His walk rate will improve in the show, not when he's taking batting practice off way overmatched pitchers.

Keith Law hated Adams. I'll bet you dollars to donuts Law saw Adams play maybe 3 times max before spring training this year, and that his opinion was formed entirely off other people's opinions. His opinion was "bad approach." But anyone who saw Adams play enough couldn't find a bad approach. If you threw him a mistake in the minors, he annihilated it. If you threw him a good pitch on the corner, he annihilated it. If you threw a good pitch an inch off the corner he annihilated it. He didn't walk, but there wasn't much of anything wrong with his "approach."

For some, if they can add walks to their repertoire, they become so much better. But for others, if they drop focus on "see ball, hit ball" and start to focus on "take pitches" it wrecks what they are naturally gifted at doing. I think Anthony Rizzo is perilously close to falling off the rails, and is one example that I've mentioned above. He walked less than 10% in the minors, but he slugged 542. In the show he walked 11% this year, but he slugged 419. His "improved patience" isn't improvement.

If you have a guy like, say, Hedges in your system who's so good behind the plate he'd probably make Jim ejaculate (he's the best defensive C I've laid eyes on below AAA by a very very very long margin and could have played MLB C for a first division team when I saw him in summer 2012 and that is absolutely not hyperbole just the kid is that good on D) but who can't hit very well, then YES, get this man walking more so that he has some offensive value and he's not entirely one-dimensional as a player, which is what Hedges is now.

But the "needs to walk more" rule does not apply to all players, as much as a lot of people want to use it as a one-sizer. I'm not saying, phins, that you do/did that. Just that I saw that on Taveras and wanted to raise the discussion of walks and what we feel like we should expect out of certain kids to make sure they realize their potential.

[Izzyman]

33, I think your point is well taken with regards to minor league walk rates for elite hitters not being a huge indicator. In your example of Rizzo do you think it is a change in approach or a reflection of his skill that his slugging and BB% have moved in opposite directions? While I'm sure that there are cases where players change their approach and experience different results I think, in general, it is better to assume that the results are a reflection of the players abilities. Rizzo's declining power is a product of not being able to hit superior pitching as hard.

[33anda3rd]

33, I think your point is well taken with regards to minor league walk rates for elite hitters not being a huge indicator. In your example of Rizzo do you think it is a change in approach or a reflection of his skill that his slugging and BB% have moved in opposite directions? While I'm sure that there are cases where players change their approach and experience different results I think, in general, it is better to assume that the results are a reflection of the players abilities. Rizzo's declining power is a product of not being able to hit superior pitching as hard.

Rizzo's not strictly a MLB thing or a decline in ability to hit balls hard. His ISO was higher last year than in 2012, and approaching his AA rate. He's not getting base hits. He lost 50 points off his batting average from 2012 to 2013. The change in his SLG is entirely accounted for in the change in his AVG. He went from 7% to 11% walks, but his OBP dropped by 20 points based on hits. Walks are great, hits are way better.

In 2012 Rizzo swung at 68.1% of the balls in the zone he saw. In 2013 it was 62%. That's a BIG drop in swing rate.
In 2012 Rizzo swung at 35.3% of the balls outside the zone he saw. In 2013 it was 31.1%. That's an even bigger drop proportionately in swing rate.

I want to see Rizzo swing at more balls in the zone, obviously, and I don't mind seeing him swing at a few more outside the zone. I want him going after and hammering those pitches that pitchf/x says is a half-inch off the plate but that I've seen Rizzo drive the other way when he offers at them. Guys who use power to generate a lot of their value, even elite hitters like Miggy Cabrera (33.9%), Robbie Cano (34.5%), Freddie Freeman (34.9%), Adrian Gonzaliez (36.8%), are swinging at a LOT more pitches outside the zone than Rizzo is. For Rizzo to be successful, the power has to show up more, and it's showing up as a blend of his hits, but it's not showing up often enough because he's becoming passive--too passive--and trying to make the pitcher walk him or throw him a perfect pitch to drive instead of attacking the pitcher. He needs to attack or he will quickly be a bust--or at least a massive underachiever--as a MLBer.

You can apply the exact same logic to Joey Votto. The last couple years his swing rates have dropped off the map. Votto swings at virtually nothing. He takes a ton of walks. And he's now three years removed from his best season, when he swung more. I'm not saying I'd kick Joey Votto out of bed for eating crackers, but I'd like Joey Votto to hit more doubles and singles and homers and walk less.

Carlos Santana. The guy never swings. He's got power, it rarely shows up.

It doesn't really bother me that Marco Scutaro swung at nothing last year, or Alberto Callaspo, or Aoki. Those guys don't have a lot of power and need to be very patient to be productive via walks. But when Uggla, Santana, Rizzo, Votto, Bautista--guys with talent to change games--are swinging so little and walking instead of mashing baseballs, it's problematic to me.

[33anda3rd]

I think you could probably make 'walks are great, hits are way better' my current mantra.

I'm just tired of hearing about how everyone needs to walk more. It's taking something good from Moneyball (guys who walk are undervalued) and misapplying it (everyone walk more!)

The lesson of Mobeyball was that the Youkilises if the world have under appreciated value, not that great pure hitters have to do more.

And honestly, no one, from Keith Law to Jason Parks to the FanGraphs writers, seems to get this. Everyone wants Matt Mothergrabbin Adams to stop Mothergrabbin and take some walks. "Hey man. That thing you do that generates a bunch of runs? Stop it. Or do it less. Instead? Do this other thing that takes away your special talent of plate coverage + hitter IQ + bat speed + power, that produces less value instead." It's goofy. And I'm done ranting about it and repeating myself, I've probably beat this drum too much the last several years.

[haltz]

I think with every hitter there are trade-offs (power vs contact is the most obvious one), and by the time a guy gets to the show he's maximizing his potential and skillset, whatever that may be. Trying to walk more or hit for more power or whatever purely for the sake of doing that particular thing is going to hurt him, if that makes sense. Or IOW, some players may be preferable, but all players are probably naturally playing to their strengths.

[33anda3rd]

I think people widely accept the power/contact trade off. They just don't get that patience/power is also a trade off.

Power should breed walks at the MLB level mostly out of fear/game management, and also out of maturity on the part of the hitter. So few guys are Trout and can hit like him, walk like him, hit for power like him. Guys who can do 2 of those things really well shouldn't be force-fed the third if it saps the other two to the point of diminishing return.

[Izzyman]

What haltz said is exactly what I was trying to say . 33, interesting analysis I was more talking about minors to MLB, didn't realize his approach had changed that much since he arrived so I see what you're saying.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think there's a supposition that minor league hitters will see their BB rate go down in MLB because the pitching is tougher. I think another supposition should be made that their BB rate will go up--and by more than it goes down b/c of tougher pitching--because they're playing in games where the other team is trying to win, not practice. Taveras will get walks as a MLBer that he doesn't get in the minors because he'll be pitched around sometimes. He'll get an extra 1% of BB just in IBB--five in 500 PA--that he never gets in the minors. He'll get more when pitchers are nibbling in competitive games instead of being told to "go out and work on your fastball location for 70 pitches, then we'll pull ya, kid." You'd be hard pressed to find many very good to great hitters who walk less as major leaguers than they did in the minors. His walk rate will improve in the show, not when he's taking batting practice off way overmatched pitchers.

I would think that's an effect that could be measured, and honestly, I'd probably need to see that effect manifested before believing it as a truism.

It's probably true that people worry too much about walks at times. Part of that is overly-simplistic analysis, but part of it is simply the nature of evaluating guys who aren't at the MLB level. Prospects fail as a rule, and so their evaluation(especially those who are successful) is simply looking for flaws that might get worse at higher levels. A low walk rate isn't inherently a flaw, but it can be an indicator of flaws like less optimal pitch selection. Some guys have low walk rates because they're too busy crushing hittable pitches that lower levels provide, and that hit tool either carries over to MLB, and/or they hit with enough power that they start seeing fewer hittable pitches, at which point they actually have the opportunity to show off their selectivity. In the case of Taveras it's a little of both. In his limited exposure to AAA he didn't show off that increased selectivity or power while his hit tool didn't play quite as well, so I think it's fair to point out that it's a potential cause for concern. Especially as light a criticism as it was coming from Phins.