Game Two: Post Game Thread

[Arthur Dent]

I think there is a significant unpredictable element to hitting that goes beyond what happens after the ball is hit. Consider free throw shooting. The shooter has complete control, but no one ever sinks all their shots.

I think he addressed that, though, by saying, "what's 'lucky' is what happens to a ball after it has been hit hard or softly" (paraphrase).

In other words, you'd expect a hard hit ball to have a much better chance of going for a hit than a softly hit one...

Isn't that what you're getting at? You're saying that regardless of how well a ball is hit, we don't know what's going to happen to it? I have a feeling I might have missed your point.

I'm saying that other hitting skills (like centering the ball or recognizing balls and strikes) also have a significant random element. That makes it tricky to tell whether someone has stepped up their game or just had good luck. It may be that some hot streaks are "real," but it seems to me that it would be awfully hard to ever know for sure.

[Knot Hole Gang Vet]

I agree with the folks comfortable with Molina batting. I like Chris but he doesn't have much time in the playoffs yet. He might freeze up before he can settle down. He's a definite HR threat, but the chances are better if he had had 3 or 4 previous at bats in the game, and in the flow. I did not give a thought to pinch hitting until I came on GRB now. Wilson and Juan look like they are uncomfortable at bat, and what the hell is Hal McRae drawing his check for- unless it is to straighten out their approach. They need to punch the ball to the opposite field once in a while- to keep the inning alive. At any rate, Yadi has been hot lately, and for me- I go for the guy who is seeing the ball and getting good wood on it-NOW.

Here is a thought not mentioned yet. With a little rally in the making, TLR may have thought that if we tied or took the lead- we would need Yadi in there defensively to catch Adam and close out the win in the bottom of the ninth. I dig that approach and believe that may have been his plan.

[EastonBlues22]

If you can tell when people are using good plate discipline and centering the ball, then you can tell the difference between the two.

It's not "lucky" to swing at strikes and not chase balls.

Neither is it "lucky" to center a ball and hit it hard somewhere.

What's "lucky" is what happens to the ball once it's either been hit hard or softly.

I think there is a significant unpredictable element to hitting that goes beyond what happens after the ball is hit. Consider free throw shooting. The shooter has complete control, but no one ever sinks all their shots.

As Kyle said, that's what the last statement is getting at. Let me give you a couple of examples. Line drives are more likely to result in hits than ground balls, which are more likely to result in hits than fly balls.

Any given line drive will find the ground for a hit at roughly "X" percentage (almost regardless of who's hitting it) over a significant period of time. Ground balls are a bit more variant, because footspeed becomes part of the equation...but in general, an average speed person can expect an average percentage of his GBs to go for hits. The same applies to FBs.

If a person has 30% of his balls in play result in line drives over the course of his career compared to someone who hits 10% line drives...I would say that the person who hits the 30% is significantly better at centering the ball, and should have a higher BA than the other guy.

Now, over a two week stretch, the guy who has a 10% LD could have every one of his fall in for hits while the guy who hits 30% LDs could have two out of three of his caught because they were right at someone. The guy on top is "lucky," and the guy on bottom is "unlucky."

This is because the guy on top has had more than the "average" amount of LDs fall in for hits, while the guy on bottom has had less than average fall in for hits. Over time, the amount that falls in should even out for both...but in the short term you can very realistically be "lucky" or "unlucky" relative to the amount of skill you're showing at the plate.

[EastonBlues22]

I'm saying that other hitting skills (like centering the ball or recognizing balls and strikes) also have a significant random element. That makes it tricky to tell whether someone has stepped up their game or just had good luck. It may be that some hot streaks are "real," but it seems to me that it would be awfully hard to ever know for sure.

Random howso? Recognizing a pitch's location, speed, and break is a skill...you might have some days where you see the ball better than others, but I don't think luck is a component.

Likewise, getting the meat of the bat on a pitch that's moving fast (and often breaking as well) is a skill. You might have some periods where you're executing better than others...but it's not something where you're going to "luck" into 7 squared up balls like you might luck into seven consecutive "heads" when you flip a coin.

[EastonBlues22]

Be back in a bit...need to critique a 20 minute presentation on gene research.

[planet planet]

I pinch hit Duncan, most likely for Wilson, because there's a very real platoon advantage.

[Arthur Dent]

I'm saying that other hitting skills (like centering the ball or recognizing balls and strikes) also have a significant random element. That makes it tricky to tell whether someone has stepped up their game or just had good luck. It may be that some hot streaks are "real," but it seems to me that it would be awfully hard to ever know for sure.

Random howso? Recognizing a pitch's location, speed, and break is a skill...you might have some days where you see the ball better than others, but I don't think luck is a component.

Likewise, getting the meat of the bat on a pitch that's moving fast (and often breaking as well) is a skill. You might have some periods where you're executing better than others...but it's not something where you're going to "luck" into 7 squared up balls like you might luck into seven consecutive "heads" when you flip a coin.

Luck in the same way shooting free throws involves luck. In principle, if you made the same exact motions everytime, you'd make every shot, but it never works out that way. Hence, "skill" has to be expressed in the form of a probability. As with any probability, there will random variations that we can call "luck".

[vinsanity]

I pinch hit Duncan, most likely for Wilson, because there's a very real platoon advantage.

Agreed. I'd rather see Duncan in for Wilson before Yadi even gets up.
We've all agreed Wilson and Juan have looked lost at the plate. Hell I'da pinch hit the gooch or ducan for Juan and then Wilson.

But Yadi is a Career 300 October hitter. Sample Size small? Sure. Is Duncan a better hitter, sure. And he's looked pretty good at the plate this post-season. But Juan and Wilson have looked dumbfounded for the last 2 weeks. The should not have been playing.

Regardless...we split in Detroit. It just wasn't the game we thought we'd win. Oh well. Lets go home, win two and bring this back so Weaver and Carp have a really good chance to win this series.

One game at a time.

[EastonBlues22]

Luck in the same way shooting free throws involves luck. In principle, if you made the same exact motions everytime, you'd make every shot, but it never works out that way. Hence, "skill" has to be expressed in the form of a probability. As with any probability, there will random variations that we can call "luck".

I don't think shooting a free throw involves luck at all. If you miss, it's because you didn't execute...maybe due to muscle fatigue, maybe due to concentration, maybe because you're winded after a hard foul, or maybe because your form is such that it's just hard to repeat it exactly the same time after time. Some people overcome those variables more consistently than others for whatever reasons...but nobody can execute perfectly every time. That doesn't mean they're unlucky...they missed because the execution wasn't perfect.

Unlucky is when you do execute perfectly and the result is bad. Perfect execution on a free throw will always result in a made free throw. Perfect execution on a swing in baseball will not always result in a hit...but it should always result in a hard hit ball somewhere. If the ball isn't hit hard, then some part of the execution was off (whether in the mechanics of the swing itself, or in the pitch recognition and tracking).

[greenback44]

I'm a little shocked you guys think Molina is a better hitter than Duncan.

I don't think you should be. It takes a great deal of faith and humility to believe MGL's work does a better job of evaluating talent than your own eyes do or FOX's constant stream of junk stats does.

What shocks me more is that Tony LaRussa thinks Molina is a better hitter than Duncan or Rodriguez. I guess that was the point of Moneyball though.