Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

Classic threads for your viewing pleasure.
Locked
User avatar
PujolJunkie
Hall Of Famer
Posts: 10370
Joined: March 22 07, 4:54 pm
Location: north county, stl
Contact:

Re: Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

Post by PujolJunkie »

letsgocards89 wrote:
PujolJunkie wrote:
Jocephus wrote:jesus can't hit a curveball and barack can't throw a strike (bowling)
You know what? I think there should be serious, serious indepth reporting into the history of President's not being able to bowl.

[/youtube]

That being said, I'm disappointed with the lack of interesting polling today. Maybe at 5, something good will come of it all. I've yet to check the schedule for releases.
Sounds like McCain must be doing well today.
No, there's legitimately no interesting numbers out. And for the record, any time McCain has shown strong numbers that were followed up by a trend, I've said it.

If you really want to know that Obama is up an extra point or two in Minnesota or Michigan or that McCain is holding steady in West Virginia, by all means I'll go out of my way to post a makeshift poll update. But there's been virtually nothing in the battleground states as far as polling goes, which is what I meant my interesting. Michigan, West Virginia, New Jersey, Oregon and Minnesota aren't noteworthy.

McCain is holding at +3 in Missouri, which has been his trend for a while now. Obama had somewhat of an advantage a week ago, but it's naturally tightened and McCain is up 3 per Politico. However, it shows Obama getting just 65% of the black vote, which is way way off the national trend. Factor that, it may be McCain +2 or +1, but it's still a statistical lead.

Strategic Vision is showing a 5 point lead in Pennsylvania for Obama, but the tracker shows +10 and double digits is still the mark. Not to mention the fact that Strategic Vision has a 2 to 3 point (R) lead and they are a self proclaimed Republican pollster. Just as PPP has a Democratic lean. Both are good pollsters, but they just have a slight lean due to Party ID.

Going back to your comment that "McCain must be doing well today" because I noted nothing interesting was happened, here's an update:

Image

If you classify that as McCain "doing well," then he's been doing well for over a month now. I don't know whether your comment was snark or blue font worthy, but at the very least, I've been objective about the polls I post because you can't spin numbers too much. Everything I've posted has come straight from Silver at 538 or a pollster themselves.

My disappointment comes with the fact that Monday and Thursday are the strongest polling days of the week. And for their to be no real in depth polling today, that's a disappointment. It has nothing to do with McCain having a good day. He hasn't had one of those for a month straight.
Last edited by PujolJunkie on October 31 08, 3:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Leroy
a bad penny always turns up
Posts: 25215
Joined: April 17 06, 12:27 pm
Location: Hanging out with my redneck, white socks and Blue Ribbon beer.
Contact:

Re: Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

Post by Leroy »

UK wrote:
Leroy wrote:
UK wrote:I wish someone would call me the messiah of baseball.
You are the messiah of baseball.
I was hoping it would be from someone who's more respected. :wink:
Not respected, but easy.

maddash
is eerily well-versed on Project Runway and irony
Posts: 8508
Joined: June 26 06, 3:07 pm

Re: Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

Post by maddash »

[/youtube]

A bit hokey, and I'm certainly not expecting the testimony of one man to change anyone's opinion... but pretty powerful stuff.

We've heard the "kids are our future" shtick before, but I'll be damned if I don't believe that we're in for something good out of this generation. We've got quite a bit on our plate, but I haven't been this optimistic about the long term future of the country in years.

jim
Red Lobster for the seafood lover in you
Posts: 50393
Joined: May 1 06, 2:41 pm

Re: Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

Post by jim »

maddash wrote:
[/youtube]

A bit hokey, and I'm certainly not expecting the testimony of one man to change anyone's opinion... but pretty powerful stuff.

We've heard the "kids are our future" shtick before, but I'll be damned if I don't believe that we're in for something good out of this generation. We've got quite a bit on our plate, but I haven't been this optimistic about the long term future of the country in years.
I agree maddash. 110%. My oldest is a Sr. in college, I'm just proud as can be with how involved he has become already.

Online
User avatar
Mary1966
President of the Ponson Fan Club
Posts: 11027
Joined: April 18 06, 10:56 pm
Location: Tacoma, WA

Re: Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

Post by Mary1966 »

A New Mexico biweekly paper has printed its latest edition:

http://westernstandard.blogs.com/shotgu ... o-sun.html

Image

Of course, that could turn out to be this:

Image

jim
Red Lobster for the seafood lover in you
Posts: 50393
Joined: May 1 06, 2:41 pm

Re: Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

Post by jim »

New poll numbers from my sons HS. Town is 96.5% white. Predominately Republican area. McCain territory...

Obama 62 McCain 38.

User avatar
PujolJunkie
Hall Of Famer
Posts: 10370
Joined: March 22 07, 4:54 pm
Location: north county, stl
Contact:

Re: Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

Post by PujolJunkie »

As I had hoped, polling picked up after 5 o'clock and it did so in a huge way.

Image
Image
Image
Image

So, it looks like FL, GA, NC, VA, SC, TX, AL, LA, MS, MO, TN, KY, OK, AR, WV, OH, IN, KS, NE, AZ, CO, NV, and UT are all must-win states for McCain. And then he has to win at least 5/6 of: ID, ND, SD, MT, WY, AK in order to reach 270.

Unless, that is, he can make a comeback in some state where he’s currently behind 9+ points. (Or if I’m incapable of adding correctly).

User avatar
PujolJunkie
Hall Of Famer
Posts: 10370
Joined: March 22 07, 4:54 pm
Location: north county, stl
Contact:

Re: Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

Post by PujolJunkie »

Matt Drudge is the biggest joke in political punditry right now. His gigantic headline on his website cites that McCain was up 1 in a ONE DAY POLLING SAMPLE by the worst, most volatile pollster of this entire election cycle, Zogby. One day polling sample. One. It's a 3 day tracker that still will have Obama up by 4 tomorrow.

User avatar
InvincibleCakeEater
GRB's obsessive compulsive baseball poster
Posts: 28262
Joined: October 12 07, 12:28 pm
Location: Raptured

Re: Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

Post by InvincibleCakeEater »

PujolJunkie wrote:Matt Drudge is the biggest joke in political punditry right now. His gigantic headline on his website cites that McCain was up 1 in a ONE DAY POLLING SAMPLE by the worst, most volatile pollster of this entire election cycle, Zogby. One day polling sample. One. It's a 3 day tracker that still will have Obama up by 4 tomorrow.
Let them eat cake

User avatar
PujolJunkie
Hall Of Famer
Posts: 10370
Joined: March 22 07, 4:54 pm
Location: north county, stl
Contact:

Re: Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

Post by PujolJunkie »

Georgia early voting line:

Image

Image

8 to 10 hours waiting to vote for some.

538's Sean Quinn on Missouri:
What McCain Has Going For Him

Missouri is a more socially conservative state in the rural areas, and Obama can't be happy about more Walmarts than Starbucks. A few more than the median own guns, report "American" ancestry, are military vets, are Mormon, aren't Catholic. And the education rate is slightly below normal, despite half of FiveThirtyEight's writing staff putting in 12 good public school years in the state. McCain has reason to hope Missouri stays red despite a far worse ground campaign; the Ozark and Bootheel areas are particularly resistant to black candidates in a way they wouldn't to someone like Claire McCaskill, and Obama hasn't personally spent as much time in rural Missouri. Still, McCain is in rough shape in St. Louis County, and this native expects Obama to overperform there.

What Obama Has Going For Him

Barack Obama just turned out 100,000 people in St. Louis, and 75,000 in Kansas City, but that doesn't necessarily translate to votes -- Obama brought out large crowds in Pennsylvania during the primary and didn't win. Missouri is a state with two poles of Democratic support -- St. Louis and Kansas City -- and a whole lot of red turf in between. The challenge for any Democratic candidate is to hold down the losses in the "Missour-uh" parts of the state and rack it up in the "Missour-ee" areas. Also, keep in mind that Sarah Palin attacked the Blues starting goalie Manny Legace recently, tripping him on her carpet and then devouring his left knee like a crazed wolverine (note: some of this sentence isn't true). Obama should get a good Legace Bounce.

What To Watch For

The presidential race is the biggie, and one House race -- the open 9th district seat which incumbent Republican Kenny Hulshof gave up to run for Governor -- is a pure tossup. The Governor's race between Democrat Jay Nixon and Hulshof leans Democratic, and House district 6 in the northwest part of the state between former Democratic K.C. mayor Kay Barnes and incumbent Republican Sam Graves leans Republican. In statewide Missouri races, the St. Louis County suburbs are where races tend to be decided. With a vote percentage of around 19% in that county alone, Barack Obama will have to win by a McCaskill-like margin of around 12 points as well as maximize turnout. John Kerry carried the county by 9 points, but it wasn't enough. On Super Tuesday primary night, Missouri provided the biggest drama when it NBC called it for Clinton and had to reverse itself and give the state to Obama. On Friday before the election, Missouri is projected for Barack Obama by one-tenth of one percent, the closest state in our current projections.

Locked