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Lynn wasn't very good and Nicasio is the only reliever they lost and the difference between he and Gregerson isn't that large. They've improved the overall outfield defense and added a significant offensive weapon. I think the pitching, Wainwright being the exception, is fine, but I won't disagree with anyone who feels iffy because there's a lot of variance still.

Lynn had a 4.82 FIP, Nicasio pitched 11 innings for us. We are a better team today than last year.

I think they’re better and probably even a playoff team. I don’t think they’re great, and I’m not sure they care that they aren’t.

I agree with both statements.

MinorLeagueGuy wrote:

Farewell Friends wrote:

Famous Mortimer wrote:It's fair, I think, to see that they've replaced Lynn and Piscotty with Mikolas and Ozuna, remember how exciting the early part of the off-season was, when the Cardinals looked like they were genuinely trying to move the needle, and wonder if this is it.

It's interesting that adding a 27-year-old who hit .310/.380/.550 with 37 home runs isn't "moving the needle."

I think its fair, that if you move the needle one direction(Ozuna) and got added value(Ozuna>Piscotty), but moved the the needle back the other way (Miles<Lynn; Miles might be great, but is virtually unknown and has pretty big shoes to fill) in another deal, then further moved the needle backwards losing experienced bullpen arms and not replacing them... Yet(?). Well, on the whole its not moving the needle much, or in the right direction. Moving the needle is the accumulation of all your moves. They've changed the team, not improved it as a whole.

We've overvaluing Lynn. He was a 1.4 WAR pitcher last year. Not THAT hard to replace.

Lynn had a 3.43 ERA in 186 IP, better than Nelson, Arrieta, DeGrom, Nola, Darvish, or Carlos Martinez. It almost certainly wasn't sustainable given his career and that FIP, but that production still happened. He led Cardinal pitchers in bWAR at 3.1, Martinez (2.9) was the only other pitcher above 1.5.

This is a good example of the fallacy of using last season as a baseline, across 15-25 players even if you don't expect big swings you need to start with expectations instead of last year's results to get the best idea of what type of team you have.

Still think, even if I was overvaluing Lynn(but TT beat me to it), we got worse in the pen. Cecil is gross. Brebbia(you trust him?) is a lock, Tui(could take HUGE stride forward, or he could be Mitchell Boggs and disappear), Bowman(can he rebound after flaming out in the 2nd half, or will the career-high innings use leave him gassed this spring?), etc..

So if we got better on offense, broke even in the rotation, and got worse in the pen; we still end up a less talented team than the team that couldn't grab a WC spot in 2017.

MinorLeagueGuy wrote:Still think, even if I was overvaluing Lynn(but TT beat me to it), we got worse in the pen. Cecil is gross. Brebbia(you trust him?) is a lock, Tui(could take HUGE stride forward, or he could be Mitchell Boggs and disappear), Bowman(can he rebound after flaming out in the 2nd half, or will the career-high innings use leave him gassed this spring?), etc..

So if we got better on offense, broke even in the rotation, and got worse in the pen; we still end up a less talented team than the team that couldn't grab a WC spot in 2017.

Cecil was better last year than the guy everyone here covets (Alex Colome).

Cecil is good. Lyons is pretty damn good. Gregerson is good. Some combination of guys like Flaherty, Reyes, Josh Lucas, etc. will be included in the pen.

I'd like to add a closer. Beyond that, the pen is in pretty good shape. I don't think it's worse than last year.

Get ready for Huston Street yo!

I like Lyons; another guy I expect to have a good year, if healthy. But, there's too much being put on rookies\sophomores\unknowns. Im not hoping these guys do poorly. But they need to show me.

Socnorb11 wrote:We've overvaluing Lynn. He was a 1.4 WAR pitcher last year. Not THAT hard to replace.

Agreed. But, it would be a lot easier to replace THAT with a proven, quality starter. We might not actually replace Lynn's 1.4 WAR production with Mikolas. Probably should. Definitely might not. We really have no idea, despite what any projections or scouts say.

Also, if 1.4 WAR was the bar for this club then why did they dump Leake, who is actually a proven, guaranteed lock for 2-3 WAR? Heck, Leake had 3.1 WAR last year, most of it for us, and we're not talking about how we're going to replace that production. Between Leake and Lynn exiting and the 1.4 WAR that Weaver gave us last year, we have to somehow get 5.9 WAR out of Weaver and Mikolas next year.

I can almost guarantee you that we won't get nearly 6 WAR out of those two. It's possible, but very doubtful.

I just keep coming back to the fact that we're simply not as secure in the pitching department, particularly the bullpen, as we were at this point last year. We're putting a lot on Weaver and Mikolas, both in terms of production and innings, and that seems like a huge risk. There's no top end to the pen to take some of the pressure off the youngsters, who have already proven to be incredibly volatile. Tyler Lyons, for example... Great last year; replacement level production every other season. He might be the best arm out there. We have no one who can even be confused as a legitimate closer. Offense definitely looks better right now, which is why we can say we "have a good chance at a playoff spot" this year rather than just on the outside looking in.

Go get one good starter and/or (preferably and) a great closer and we have a real shot at the Cubs. We absolutely should do everything we can to make that happen.