Yadi Redux

skmsw · Post by **skmsw** » March 4 07, 5:14 pm

I make it a point to read your posts, because they are
well thought-out and reasonable.

Thanks. The feeling is mutual.

But I have to disagree here.

No problem. I don't claim the final word very often. People are always free to disagree; if they have a well-thought out reason for same, as you invariably do, more the better.

In no way do I consider Yadi average as a catcher. He can
improve, to be sure; but he is much better than average.

OK. Is that based on watching him play? Or is it based on something else? If so, what?

Based on watching him play, I see him do a lot of things defensively that do not impress me. I don't think he gets out in front of the plate very quickly on batted balls. I don't think he blocks tough pitches very well. I think he telegraphs pitches. Are these fatal flaws? No, because most catchers are pretty similar in ability, so good is not a huge benefit and bad is not a huge loss. But in my opinion, he is average to below average, not "much better."

Your point that there is a bias such that weak-hitting catchers
get the defensive benefit of the doubt is intriguing, but let's
apply it the other way: I contend that there is a reverse-bias.
Poor hitting catchers have their defensive skills disparaged
routinely.

OK. I've never seen this, myself. I've not heard people say that Ausmus and Matheny are poor defensive catchers out of some carry-over from their poor hitting. BUT I've seen polls that over-rate the defense of bad hitting catchers, and there is a fairly well-established conventional wisdom that if a team is willing to carry someone who hits so badly, then he MUST be good defensively. So, what are you basing your perceptions of reverse bias upon?

Yadi is a fine receiver and I maintain that he had his offensive
breakthrough in the fiery cauldron that is the post-season.

I hope you are right. But I maintain that he has had many similar "breakthroughs" in which for a 30 or 40 AB stretch he hit a lot better than his norm, only to revert back. We can hope together that this one is different (new stance, new swing, both repeatable), but I'm not as optimistic as you; I feel like I've seen these stretches before.

Last, while I love a catcher who can hit; I will take a brainy,
tough defender who hits .250 over a donkey who hits .350 with
25-30 HR any day.

Mike Piazza?

Feh.

I enjoy watching good baseball. Watching Yadi throw is a true joy. Watching the rest of his defense is pedestrian. Watching him hit adds nothing to my enjoyment of the game and does little to enhance the team's chances of winning.

But I have to say -- Mike Piazza's hitting has a heckuva larger impact on the outcomes of his team than Yadi's throwing. If it comes down to Piazza or Pudge, it's a fair question. But if I could have Piazza in his prime or Yadi in his, I know which one I'm taking. Conventional wisdom disagrees, but all else being equal and just boiled down to the one or the other, in my opinion choosing Yadi is going to a gunfight without even bringing your knife.

Even if we use Davenport stats -- which overestimate defense, in my opinion -- a typical Piazza year, he is ~30 runs better than average including offense and defense (call it +40 hitting and -10 fielding), while Yadi is about 3 runs better than average including offense and defense (roughly -15 hitting and +18 fielding). Piazza contributes, EVEN IN THE NET, ten times as much to winning as Yadi.

clement · Post by **clement** » March 4 07, 7:56 pm

To take the discussion a different direction, I was just wondering if anyone else noticed that Yadi has come to camp this year looking in better shape than last year. I don't know how much being overweight affects his hitting ability (it can't help his already snail-like speed), so I'm at least hoping that a more in-shape Molina will improve both his offense and his defense.

The Molina boys all seem to have this problem, so I'm not sure how difficult it will be for him to keep the extra poundage off.

At this point, Molina is still very cheap. He has time to either improve or maintain his current value to the team. I would hope that Walt and Tony are smart enough to upgrade any position that has that possibility. I see nothing wrong in Tony and others giving Yadi a vote of confidence by talking up, even exaggerating his strengths. Nothing he is saying in ST '07 carries any contractual obligation.

cardfaninfla · Post by **cardfaninfla** » March 4 07, 10:39 pm

I think it is pretty tough to really know if Piazza was more importent to his team with his bat and his absolutly horrid arm and defense compared to Yadi's arm and bad bat.

As I said earlier, we know how many guys he throws out and how many don't try to run at all. But he has also picked a number of guys off first which turns into scouting reports telling players not to get to far off first base, sometimes second and third, after the pitch is thrown. We have no way of knowing how many runs this prevents by keeping guys from being able to take an extra base or score from third on a ground ball. That one or two steps can be the difference in scoring or not.

skmsw · Post by **skmsw** » March 4 07, 11:47 pm

I think it is pretty tough to really know if Piazza was more importent to his team with his bat and his absolutly horrid arm and defense compared to Yadi's arm and bad bat.

I'm fine with amicably disagreeing. I can readily admit that we may never know. I'm only offering my opinion and sharing my perspective, not claiming that I'm right and you're (collectively) wrong.

But just an eyeball exam of linear weights tells us that Piazza is creating an average of over 50 runs per year of offense more than Yadi, despite hitting in very, very pitching-friendly parks for most of his career.

I can't imagine a foundation for the position that Yadi's defense is so much better than Piazza's that it's closing a 50-run per year gap to the point where it is too tough to call. What basis is there for imagining that any catcher is able to prevent 50 additional runs on defense?

clement · Post by **clement** » March 5 07, 1:18 am

Are we talking about a 24-year old Mike Piazza or a 38 year old Mike Piazza? 50 runs per year is based on his career or his 2006?

I think anyone would have to be a little crazy to pick 24 year old Molina over 24 year old Piazza. But given the cost and future upside of each in 2007, I'd take 24 year old and cheap Molina over expensive and old Mike Piazza. He's getting paid $8.5 million this year and will probably not see a whole lot of time behind the plate. I believe he's being slated as the #3 catcher on the A's this year.

Jocephus · Post by **Jocephus** » March 5 07, 1:23 am

clement wrote:Are we talking about a 24-year old Mike Piazza or a 38 year old Mike Piazza? 50 runs per year is based on his career or his 2006?

I think anyone would have to be a little crazy to pick 24 year old Molina over 24 year old Piazza. But given the cost and future upside of each in 2007, I'd take 24 year old and cheap Molina over expensive and old Mike Piazza. He's getting paid $8.5 million this year and will probably not see a whole lot of time behind the plate. I believe he's being slated as the #3 catcher on the A's this year.

hes their dh

clement · Post by **clement** » March 5 07, 1:53 am

Jocephus wrote:
clement wrote:Are we talking about a 24-year old Mike Piazza or a 38 year old Mike Piazza? 50 runs per year is based on his career or his 2006?

I think anyone would have to be a little crazy to pick 24 year old Molina over 24 year old Piazza. But given the cost and future upside of each in 2007, I'd take 24 year old and cheap Molina over expensive and old Mike Piazza. He's getting paid $8.5 million this year and will probably not see a whole lot of time behind the plate. I believe he's being slated as the #3 catcher on the A's this year.
hes their dh

Yes I know that

. That's my point. I would rather have Molina today than Piazza today, because I think his defense would be that big of a liability, plus the cost, plus the probable slide in his offensive numbers as he reaches the twilight of his career, plus the possible upside that Molina's offense will improve over last year's dismal performance.

Richie Allen · Post by **Richie Allen** » March 5 07, 2:29 am

I know it's late and, most likely, nobody's out there to answer me but what is the sense of comparing Molina (to date, a very light hitting/strong defensive catcher) to Piazza (a Hall Of Famer with the best offensive numbers in the history of the position)?

stlmark · Post by **stlmark** » March 5 07, 2:32 am

Richie Allen wrote:I know it's late and, most likely, nobody's out there to answer me but what is the sense of comparing Molina (to date, a very light hitting/strong defensive catcher) to Piazza (a Hall Of Famer with the best offensive numbers in the history of the position)?

They are complete opposites and Yadi backstopped a team to a World Championship, unlike Piazza. I do realize that Yadi will never be in the HOF though.

letsgocards89 · Post by **letsgocards89** » March 5 07, 7:11 am

I think we can all agree that Yadi posting a .971 OPS during the 2006 playoffs is a big, big reason that the Cards ended up hoisting the trophy. That said, imagine the effect an offensive force behind the plate would have over the course of 162 games. I realize that having a defensive whiz at catcher is sexy. It's fun watching Yadi making runners look helpless. But the fact is, his lack of offensive capabilities is hurting the team far more than his arm helps it win.