Page 4 of 11
Re: Colby Rasmus
Posted: March 30 08, 4:41 pm
by cpebbles
Anderson wore down, plain and simple. He was at .315/.375/.426 before fading badly in July and August. His offensive game is well-regarded by scouts and he's had good numbers at every stop thus far. By far the biggest question with him is whether he can handle more than 80-90 games behind the plate each season.
Re: Colby Rasmus
Posted: March 30 08, 4:47 pm
by Fat Strat
cpebbles wrote:Anderson wore down, plain and simple. He was at .315/.375/.426 before fading badly in July and August. His offensive game is well-regarded by scouts and he's had good numbers at every stop thus far. By far the biggest question with him is whether he can handle more than 80-90 games behind the plate each season.
I was just about to make this same point. And, really, we're not expecting Anderson to be a great prospect. We're hoping that he provides enough offense to push Molina aside or provide an alternative down the road. We're not looking for a super star here.
Re: Colby Rasmus
Posted: March 30 08, 4:49 pm
by Jmodene
But - given the choice between a catcher who can catch but isn't much of a hitter, or a catcher who can hit but isn't much of a catcher, I'll take the former every time.
Re: Colby Rasmus
Posted: March 30 08, 4:56 pm
by cpebbles
Where exactly did you get this idea that Springfield is a hitter's haven? It's rated as a slight hitters' park by Szymborski and minorleaguesplits. I'm guessing Prospectus, and I seem to recall discussion on Primer that they are still clinging to one-year park effects.
Re: Colby Rasmus
Posted: March 30 08, 4:59 pm
by cpebbles
Incidentally, Prospectus translates Anderson's struggles last year into a peak projection of .301/.356/.400. I think we'll take that.
Re: Colby Rasmus
Posted: March 30 08, 5:16 pm
by Asmodai
1.23 hr factor in 07
1.29 hr factor in 06
1.05 hr factor in 05
The overall factors for them are 1.04 or so, iirc.
My method would have come up with this (im only using my method for seasons before 2003) the last three years
1.0293, 1.0170, 1.0251
Wichita and Midland were a little better offensively, but none are better for power hitters due to the high HR factor.
Using my method for HR factors for Springfield we get
1.1384,1.1018,1.1090
My method adjusts for schedule, the others one don't so mine are on average going to be closer to average across the board.
Re: Colby Rasmus
Posted: March 30 08, 5:17 pm
by greenback44
cpebbles wrote:Incidentally, Prospectus translates Anderson's struggles last year into a peak projection of .301/.356/.400. I think we'll take that.
Anderson's PECOTA page isn't as friendly. For some reason it's not subscriber-only (and the spacing is a PITA):
Code: Select all
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr EqA VORP
2008 (age 21) 491 46 24 2 8 50 34 96 4 2 -0.4 .255 .307 .370 -.165 .236 5.5
2009 (age 22) 452 43 23 1 8 46 32 83 4 2 -0.4 .262 .316 .384 -.126 .244 6.9
2010 (age 23) 446 43 23 2 9 47 33 81 3 2 -0.4 .260 .316 .388 -.122 .245 6.3
2011 (age 24) 398 38 20 2 9 43 28 70 4 2 -0.4 .268 .321 .402 -.088 .251 8.4
2012 (age 25) 394 39 20 2 9 44 31 65 3 2 -0.3 .275 .334 .417 -.040 .261 9.4
2013 (age 26) 357 34 19 2 8 41 27 59 3 2 -0.3 .275 .330 .420 -.043 .260 8.0
2014 (age 27) 434 43 22 2 10 50 30 71 3 2 -0.2 .265 .317 .406 -.092 .251 4.5
Re: Colby Rasmus
Posted: March 30 08, 5:17 pm
by Asmodai
cpebbles wrote:Incidentally, Prospectus translates Anderson's struggles last year into a peak projection of .301/.356/.400. I think we'll take that.
and anderson is the perfect example of a player pecota wont get right in near term (much less long term) projections
Re: Colby Rasmus
Posted: March 30 08, 5:26 pm
by cpebbles
Asmodai wrote:Bryan Anderson had an isolated power of just 90 while playing half of his games in perhaps the best offensive park in the league, in the best offensive league at the level.
The overall factors for them are 1.04 or so, iirc.
Wichita and Midland were a little better offensively, but none are better for power hitters due to the high HR factor.
So the neutral overall park factors are irrelevant, what really matters is the HR park factor for a player whose offensive game is not dependant on the HR by anyone's estimation?
So are these posts trolling, or are you really this confused about what you're saying?
Re: Colby Rasmus
Posted: March 30 08, 5:47 pm
by Michael
Interesting work, Asmodai. I agree with others, while Rasmus is an excellent prospect we have to be realistic about his chances.