Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

[haltz]

No idea what's normal, and at least according to Gallup, Obama got a big boost from his campaign. I just don't see any big failure there, but there's obviously time for this to still make an impact.

EDIT: I'm reading this wrong. Obama is still picking up undecided voters, so maybe they did screw up. I still stand by my point about intentions though.

[JL21]

FWIW, here's the CNN article:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/31/ ... cain.poll/

[haltz]

And Rasmussen says basically the same thing:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows the beginning of John McCain’s convention bounce and the race is essentially back where it was before Barack Obama’s bounce. Obama now attracts 46% of the vote while McCain earns 45%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48%, McCain 46% (see recent daily results).

[Fat Strat]

What's a standard, post-convention spike? I know it exists, but I really have no idea what the norm is. I do know that the Dems- according to a CNN article that I saw- didn't get much of a spike at all.

i think the dems got 3 points in one poll (Rasmussen? or Zogby?) and that guy was predicting that the Republicans will get a similar bounce. It's not as high as it used to be (5+ points), but most of that's because of cable TV alternatives.

It's still too early to measure a Republican bounce. It will hit a little more today and over the weekend. Turn around is longer than half a day on polls.

Edit: See what Haltz quoted. That's a direct quote of what I heard earlier somewhere.

[ghostrunner]

We're over the limit.

[BW23]

So, we're right back where we were 2 weeks ago?

That was a big waste of time.

[PujolJunkie]

For the record, whoever wins CO and NH wins the election.

If Colorado goes blue and NH goes red, it's a tie.

If Colorado goes red, McCain wins regardless.

This is assuming Obama doesn't win ND. It's looking like he might.

So:

If Colorado & ND goes Blue and NH goes red, Obama wins
If Colorado goes Blue and ND & NH goes red, tie
If Colorado goes red and ND & NH goes blue, McCain wins
If Ohio goes blue, no matter what else happens, Obama wins.

No matter WHAT happens, John McCain can't lose Ohio. If he does, the race is over, everything is done. There's no recovering that. Period.

If Obama loses Ohio, he can still take Colorado, North Dakota, New Mexico and New Hampshire to make up for it and still win.

It all comes down to Colorado, North Dakota and New Hampshire.

EDIT: Just realized this, too. If Obama wins Virginia, the race is also over. Even if McCain wins Colorado, New Hampshire, Montana, North Dakota and Ohio and Obama takes Virginia, Obama wins.

Montana is a huge catalyst. If Obama wins Colorado and McCain wins New Hampshire, one thing that would break the tie is Montana. If Montana goes blue, it's over as well.

There's a LOT more in Obama's favor than McCain's. This isn't me being partisan or non-objective. This is just how the map plays out.

[stlouie_lipp]

it very well may have been scripted for him, but the "choreographers" surely didn't do their job.

I don't know, I see a slight McCain upswing here:

Not surprising. But how much more of an upswing could there have been if Giuliani hadn't acted like Otis Campbell trying to get Barney re-elected as deputy of Mayberrry?

Huh? Your argument that his speech was bad was not reflected in the polls so you come back with "Well, it could have been a bigger bump" argument. Not sure about the reasoning there.

[sighyoung]

So, we're right back where we were 2 weeks ago?

That was a big waste of time.

But confetti manufacturers got a big boost.

[Fat Strat]

There's a LOT more in Obama's favor than McCain's. This isn't me being partisan or non-objective. This is just how the map plays out.

I would have thought that McCain would have Colorado in his corner, since he seems to have most of the west locked up, but the populated front range has always been a little more progressive.

I think you're right that Obama has an advantage right now. McCain's got a hard battle, but we knew that going in.