2017-18 NBA Thread

[MrCrowesGarden]

I guess I was hoping AD's monster series would stop the terrible trade proposals from Celtics fans.

It did not.

[33anda3rd]

The real mystery is what they plan to do about Boogie. Do they try to keep him, and think they can do even better with him next year, or are they cool with keeping Niko for another year on his player option and playing him at the 4 as a floor-spacer who can hit threes, grab boards and play some post defense? I like Niko a lot on this team in that role. Having him pull the D gives Jrue and AD a lot of room to work in the middle of the floor.

[MrCrowesGarden]

The real mystery is what they plan to do about Boogie. Do they try to keep him, and think they can do even better with him next year, or are they cool with keeping Niko for another year on his player option and playing him at the 4 as a floor-spacer who can hit threes, grab boards and play some post defense? I like Niko a lot on this team in that role. Having him pull the D gives Jrue and AD a lot of room to work in the middle of the floor.

Niko's option has already been picked up. It was one of the conditions of his trade. Boogie won't be going anywhere either.

[33anda3rd]

Right, I didn't mean to ask if they'll pick up Niko's option, but rather if they like Niko enough as the starter at the 4 that they don't feel the need to keep Boogie. They were 27-21 when he went down (.563) and 21-14 without him (.600) so they're just a win or two of random variance away from being about as good with him as they were without him. They did have a lot more wins against quality teams in the first half of the year with Boogie on the floor, and as often as AD gets hurt Boogie makes not just a great 2nd star, he gives them cover if AD goes down for any amount of time in the future, so I do think it helps them to keep him.

[MrCrowesGarden]

Ok, I gotcha now. I'm positive Boogie isn't going anywhere. He'll get a max deal from the Pelicans. Niko... I hope they keep him and would guess that he's staying but don't think a trade is out of the realm of possibility unless he goes absolutely bonkers against the Warriors.

[33anda3rd]

One reason I think they might think twice about re-upping Boogie is cap/luxury tax. Boogie's is the only meaningful money coming off the books, and they lose Rondo at $3.3MM. If they give Boogie a new max deal they probably don't have room for Rondo, who I'd think gets more than his current salary on a one-year deal. Boogie will push them over $120MM and into luxury tax. Do they want to go there and have Frank Jackson, Sol Hill, Jordan Crawford, Ian Clark as their backcourt behind Jrue? Or are they better off trying to keep Rondo on a 1-2 year deal and land a couple role players to supplement a core that's been about as good with Boogie as without?

[33anda3rd]

Zach Lowe addressed the Boogie issue today.

As uncomfortable as it is to say, New Orleans' raging success in these playoffs has to change that calculus. The Pelicans look better, faster, stingier, more versatile with Davis at center, Jrue Holiday in an elevated role, and Nikola Mirotic spacing the floor for Davis' borderline pornographic rim runs. A long-term, near-max deal for Cousins is simply too risky given the Pelicans know this current roster -- when healthy, an important caveat -- can win at this level.

Cousins didn't suffer a regular injury. He suffered perhaps the most devastating injury that can befall a basketball player. As Kevin Pelton has written often, the recovery track record is discouraging -- if a little scattershot. The sample size of players as large as Cousins who have come back to full strength from an Achilles rupture is practically nonexistent. Cousins' conditioning has sometimes been an issue, and it cannot be for any player rallying from this injury.

I tend to agree with all of that. If they max out Boogie, or give him an almost-max deal, and he never fully bounces back from the achilles injury, they are committing 20%+ of their cap and entering the luxury tax. It could handicap the team for a long time. That could be compounded by them not having their first round pick this year and the team having no incoming draft picks from past trades on the books for any year.

[MrCrowesGarden]

My read from everything I’ve read is that both sides are comfortable with 2-3 years for Max money or close to it.

I’ll just say I’ll be shocked if Boogie isn’t a Pelican next year.

[33anda3rd]

We are going to see a LOT of guys take 2-year deals this offseason and for good reason. In the 2016 offseason all that national TV money came in, the cap skyrocketed, and a bunch of dudes got way too much money on four-year deals. From Deng down to guys like Meyers Leonard getting way overpaid to the tune of 4 years and $40 million to be a lightly used backup.

Last year, what happened? Lowry, Millsap, Gallinari, Iguodala, Teague, Hill all took 3 years. Outside Jrue and Steph (5 years) and Otto and Hayward (4), everybody took 3 years or less. (I'm excluding stuff like KD taking the standard megastar 2 years with a player option.) Because money was tight last year when the TV money didn't escalate like they thought would, all those guys looked to the future and took 3 so they could line their free agency up with all the horrible 4 year deals given out the year before. That way they don't take their next trip to free agency in another year when money is tight. If you're Lowry, you want out in 2020 when the Deng and Mozgov and Harrison Barnes and Evan Turner and Joakim Noah money comes off the books.

If that does happen and everyone keeps lining up for 2020 it could be the biggest shuffle in talent across the league we've ever seen.

[33anda3rd]

Boston looked very good in taking apart Philly last night.

Nate Silver asked a very difficult question on Twitter, made a little poll. He asked: "If you were starting an NBA team and wanted to maximize your chance of winning a championship over the next 5 seasons, who would you rather have?" The options were Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brad Stevens. I took a long time thinking about it and voted Giannis but I can totally see a Stevens vote. The vote right now after over 25K votes is 54/46 in favor of Giannis.