Bullpen Circle Of Trust

[dmarx114]

I agree with your thought process, but not all arms are created equally.

Because of their contracts, Holland and Gregerson aren't going anywhere. Lyons is out of options, so he has a spot locked up as well. Mo painted himself into a corner. Again.

Crazy to me that Brebbia and Gant are in Memphis right now.

I don't really understand what you're implying. You were (rightly) concerned about the bullpen this winter. Well, Mo signed some arms to reasonable contracts who should be decent at worst and great at best. Now, you're saying that Mo painted himself into a corner? The only alternative to experienced, proven arms with significant contracts and a guaranteed roster spot are highly questionable arms that you could release if needed (Broxton's) and guys with limited experience (i.e. options remaining). Only one of those type are typically available through the FA market. The other through trade. (We did that with Leone.) I'm pretty sure you would have been dissatisfied with Mo's approach if he had not signed some proven arms and stuck with flexibility.

As far as the arms that we did sign, Holland should land somewhere between servicable and great; he's still in spring training, essentially. I'm not very worried about him, though it sucks that he's having his ST during the season. Gregerson also needs some patience. He only has just over 3 innings on the year. I'm less confident about him; never really liked that signing, but he's always been serviceable at worst. I think Lyons will be fine or he's injured. His velocity is slightly down across the board but His K% is still really high; he just hasn't gotten the results yet. (Or, he's hurt). Norris has been the steal we thought he would be.

Really, outside of Holland (only 7 innings), our problems have been with the guys who have the most flexibility -- Hicks, Leone and Bowman.

You made the point that we have 20 arms to shuttle back and forth. And while that's partially true, I named at least 3 guys who aren't going anywhere, no matter how much they suck (4 when Cecil gets healthy). So my not so clear point was that Mo did a horrible job by spending big bucks on crappy relievers. And as a result of these poor decisions, our flexibility in the pen isn't as flexible as you make it seem.

[33anda3rd]

I agree w/ dmarx that they're a bit handicapped in their ability to stream RP when they have four guys they can't send down. It's challenging.

I think Gregerson was a bad pickup. There are a few who defy this, but by and large even very very good RP have about 600-700 IP in the tank. Gagne 643. Nen 715. Valverde 630. K-Rod got to almost 1K but the last 350 or so were bad. Jim Johnson hasn't been good for two years, but those first 650 or so IP were great. Gregerson is right there, at 602, and last year he took a big downhill turn. I very much wish he was not on the books, and I don't think it would ever be a bad idea for a GM to pass on a FA RP who is at or over 600 IP because that GM would end up coming out way ahead. For every Trevor Hoffman he missed on he'd more than make that value up by passing on the Gagnes and Nens and Jim Johnsons.

[Fat Strat]

I agree w/ dmarx that they're a bit handicapped in their ability to stream RP when they have four guys they can't send down. It's challenging.

I think Gregerson was a bad pickup. There are a few who defy this, but by and large even very very good RP have about 600-700 IP in the tank. Gagne 643. Nen 715. Valverde 630. K-Rod got to almost 1K but the last 350 or so were bad. Jim Johnson hasn't been good for two years, but those first 650 or so IP were great. Gregerson is right there, at 602, and last year he took a big downhill turn. I very much wish he was not on the books, and I don't think it would ever be a bad idea for a GM to pass on a FA RP who is at or over 600 IP because that GM would end up coming out way ahead. For every Trevor Hoffman he missed on he'd more than make that value up by passing on the Gagnes and Nens and Jim Johnsons.

I didn't like the Gregerson signing for many of the reasons you are citing, so I won't defend that one. Hopefully he'll still be serviceable.

I just don't think that you can have it both ways. I'm not saying more flexibility wouldn't be useful or good. I'm just not sure how that could have reasonably happened in the offseason while still achieving our obvious need of solidifying the pen. To me, dmarx's original post is reactive rather than predictive. We want more flexibility now because we're reacting to our current state -- understandable, in some regards. But, it seems like we entered this season predicting that the bullpen as constructed -- with it's current amount of flexibility -- should be at least productive and was fairly well constructed. At least, I thought that way, especially after the Holland signing.

So, what if we take a predictive approach to the present bullpen? Let's say we react to the present situation and dump some of our inflexible players, eating their contracts. Would we the be able to predict more success from the bullpen going forward? We might want to say "they have to be better than this", but that's a reactive response. Can we really predict that Helsley and Hudson will perform well? We all seem to agree on Brebbia, but he's one of those flexible players who could/should be up in one of our flexible spots anyway (Bowman, Hicks).

I think it goes back to a) time (which we haven't had enough of yet) and b) FA choices. I think we would be a lot happier right now if we had signed Addison Reed -- which many of us argued for -- instead of Gregerson or Holland. But, that's not an argument for improved flexibility. It's for better player predictions.

[jagtrader]

Can't just shuttle guys back and forth because they have to be in the minors for 10 days. The Cardinals have boxed themselves into this particular corner with Brebbia, who was used as a long man for some reason and shipped out.

[cardsfantx]

Can't just shuttle guys back and forth because they have to be in the minors for 10 days. The Cardinals have boxed themselves into this particular corner with Brebbia, who was used as a long man for some reason and shipped out.

nah, they "seem" to be using the dodgers method from last year of DL'ing guys with phantom injuries so guys can come/go back and forth to the minors at will.

it's a loophole they should exploit till MLB does something about it

[jagtrader]

Who has been DL'ed with a phantom injury?

[cardsfantx]

Who has been DL'ed with a phantom injury?

there was insinuation with tui, as he's out of options, so he was DL'd so not to lose him to waivers...waino didn't want/think he needed to go on the DL last week (he came back later with his saving his bullets for the end of year talk)

all this reliever shuffle has been the last week or 2, so i'm not saying that's def what it is/what they are doing.

it's what it seems/appears to me, and it's a smart strategy if they are doing it (like the dodgers last year)

[jagtrader]

Maybe they did it with Tui because of options. The phantom DL thing is a good way to steal extra rest for starters during the season. It doesn't work with the bullpen. Those guys need to pitch regularly. And shuffling guys constantly can land you Mayers in the pen instead of Brebbia, which isn't ideal.

[Fat Strat]

Speaking of bullpen stuff, Mayers was sent down and Voit recalled today, leading to this interesting series of Tweets from Goold:

[dmarx114]

1. Norris
2. Leone
3. Lyons
4. Hicks
5. Gomber
6. Gregerson
7. Bowman
8. Holland

I miss Gant and Brebbia.