Cards top-21 (top-10 detailed)

[phins]

I'm slowly picking through this.

- Why did you hesitate putting Martinez on your list? I would do what BA does, which is just use the MLB rules for defining a rookie. If they are eligible for ROY, they are still a prospect.

- Long range for Wong ... I say he will be All Star. Maybe not a consistent AS, but his up years will be of that caliber.

- I can't get on the we are deep train, or maybe I don't know what you mean by deep. The farm system for Cardinals falls off a cliff after Piscotty. I think the top 4 are legit MLB starters, I view Gonzales as a nice bullpen arm but nothing more. I love his move to 1B, he's got a couple of different looks there.

- I like Reyes better than Gonzalez only because of the ceiling. I agree the floor is higher with Gonzales. Someone is going to have to tell Reyes that with runners on you can't take 1.7 seconds to get the ball to home plate, even with Yadi back there.

I hesitate putting Martinez on my list because I debated whether he was a real prospect anymore. I decided he had a chance to go back to the minors, so I decided to include him. I'm not really interested in just taking an arbitrary sample size and using that. I do the same with the list every year, if I don't feel they're ever going back to the minors, I don't include them anymore because they're big leaguers and people can see their talent at that point. Martinez isn't a rookie anymore though, so there's that as well.

Wong is a good player. It sounds like we agree honestly.

We have a deep system in the sense we have a lot of guys who could reach the big leagues, but few who would be stars. FWIW, BP agrees with you, having Reyes at #96 or so, and Gonzales in that 110 range. A top 110 prospect is quite a bit more than a bullpen arm in my view, but everyone has to decide for themselves on these things. Carson Kelly has the ceiling to be the second best player of our prospects if he actualizes at C. I've always had a thing for him though. Kaminsky too.

Honestly, it sounds like you disagree with most of it, and that's fine, the debate is a big part of it.

[jim]

I'm slowly picking through this.

- Why did you hesitate putting Martinez on your list? I would do what BA does, which is just use the MLB rules for defining a rookie. If they are eligible for ROY, they are still a prospect.

- Long range for Wong ... I say he will be All Star. Maybe not a consistent AS, but his up years will be of that caliber.

- I can't get on the we are deep train, or maybe I don't know what you mean by deep. The farm system for Cardinals falls off a cliff after Piscotty. I think the top 4 are legit MLB starters, I view Gonzales as a nice bullpen arm but nothing more. I love his move to 1B, he's got a couple of different looks there.

- I like Reyes better than Gonzalez only because of the ceiling. I agree the floor is higher with Gonzales. Someone is going to have to tell Reyes that with runners on you can't take 1.7 seconds to get the ball to home plate, even with Yadi back there.

I hesitate putting Martinez on my list because I debated whether he was a real prospect anymore. I decided he had a chance to go back to the minors, so I decided to include him. I'm not really interested in just taking an arbitrary sample size and using that. I do the same with the list every year, if I don't feel they're ever going back to the minors, I don't include them anymore because they're big leaguers and people can see their talent at that point. Martinez isn't a rookie anymore though, so there's that as well.

Wong is a good player. It sounds like we agree honestly.

We have a deep system in the sense we have a lot of guys who could reach the big leagues, but few who would be stars. FWIW, BP agrees with you, having Reyes at #96 or so, and Gonzales in that 110 range. A top 110 prospect is quite a bit more than a bullpen arm in my view, but everyone has to decide for themselves on these things. Carson Kelly has the ceiling to be the second best player of our prospects if he actualizes at C. I've always had a thing for him though. Kaminsky too.

Honestly, it sounds like you disagree with most of it, and that's fine, the debate is a big part of it.

Disagree with most of your post? Not at all. The stuff I knew I agreed with 98% of the time, and quite frankly there was a bunch of brand new info for me that I very much appreciated reading.

[ilstu24]

Anything about Dixon Llorens? Ridiculous K rates

[phins]

Jim I was in a pissy mood when I posted that, so I probably read it through those eyes. Truly though, even if someone does disagree, I love hearing why. It isn't like I'm beyond reproach with this stuff. In fact, I often turn out low on prospects.

As for Llorens, I haven't seen him live, but you have to be careful evaluating on the K rates alone. The how and why really matter most.

[Izzyman]

Anything about Dixon Llorens? Ridiculous K rates

I haven't seen him either but from what I've gathered.. funky low arm slot guy with a lot of deception and a great slider. The problem with a prospect like this is that his ceiling is really low without classic power stuff. For a 20 y/o reliever he seems to be a decent bet to at least reach the majors.

[planet planet]

Thanks for the write up, phins! Do you have an opinion on Bryan? I had never heard of him. Comments taken from Jason Parks' tweets today:

Jason Parks ‏@ProfessorParks 37m
Looking for a sleeper prospect that could be ready to explode in 2014? #Cardinals OF Vaughn Bryan. ++ athlete; legit CF; high ceiling.
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cornelius robinson ‏@crispsdg 33m
@ProfessorParks just what the cards need more top flight prospects.
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Jason Parks ‏@ProfessorParks 32m
I know. I really like their farm system. Very deep. RT @crispsdg @ProfessorParks just what the cards need more top flight prospects.
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cornelius robinson ‏@crispsdg 31m
@ProfessorParks also grass is green, and pujol is #wet
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GOATbrady12 ‏@kevinabbott1 22m
@ProfessorParks @crispsdg they grow them on trees

[33anda3rd]

Llorens will miss bats and be a good 7th inning guy potentially. At the least a situational guy who gets tossed in for a PA or 2. Nice to have but not much helium there.

[phins]

He's a kid with a real chance. He has the requisite athletic talent to make it in CF and has the frame to really fill out and keep his athleticism. He's a switch hitter. 6', 180. Still 20 and has briefly tasted State College.

He's an interesting test case for a "breakout" prediction in the sense that he is already 20 (21 in June), had previously been only at Johnson City outside of 8 at bats and didn't really dominate in any particular area. Has a little higher K% than you'd like for someone with such a low slugging %.

If he sticks in CF as he should, grows and fills out a little bit while making better contact, he could make it.

[planet planet]

He's a kid with a real chance. He has the requisite athletic talent to make it in CF and has the frame to really fill out and keep his athleticism. He's a switch hitter. 6', 180. Still 20 and has briefly tasted State College.

He's an interesting test case for a "breakout" prediction in the sense that he is already 20 (21 in June), had previously been only at Johnson City outside of 8 at bats and didn't really dominate in any particular area. Has a little higher K% than you'd like for someone with such a low slugging %.

If he sticks in CF as he should, grows and fills out a little bit while making better contact, he could make it.

Dig it, phins! Thanks for the extra info!

[Jocephus]

i was about to tack on something about vaughn too...this was in a fangraphs chat...i hadn't heard of him nor had i seen PP and phins post about him

Comment From Joe
Deep league–heard some Twitter rumblings on Vaughn Bryan (OF-STL), that he could vault up some top 100 lists next year. Thoughts?
9:25
Paul Swydan: Haven’t heard of him, but seems like he’ll need to hit pretty well. He didn’t do poorly or anything, but a 20-year-old with a 113 wRC+ in rookie ball isn’t enough to make me say WOW.

granted this is more of a fantasy related chat