Juan E. "prepared to miss opening day"

G. Keenan · Post by **G. Keenan** » March 13 07, 1:09 pm

jim wrote:
G. Keenan wrote:
GOOCH wrote:I don't understand why J-Rod doesn't get any love. His OBP alone should guarantee him a spot. As much as I like having a "Gooch" on the Cardinals...how So can make this team in front of J-Rod is baffling to me. And I'd rather have J-Rod than Juan. D.GOOCH
I think they value Gooch for his defensive ability and his situational hitting. He can always get a bunt down perfectly and makes good contact.
That is all true, but I'd rather have that LH bat off the bench. Right now, we have 1 LH bat off the bench (Miles) against RH starters. Not exactly what I want to look down the bench and see when I really really gotta have a LH up at the plate.

While I have a soft spot in my heart for Gooch, I'm not saying he should be on the team, just saying why I think TLR and co. value him.

JL21 · Post by **JL21** » March 13 07, 1:16 pm

jagtrader wrote:You need one defensive replacement on the bench if you're going to start Duncan in LF.

Mind you, Bozo the Clown would've been a serviceable defensive replacement for Duncan last year, but the Gooch looked an awful lot like he lost a step in the OF last year- less like a defensive replacement and more like a black hole in the lineup. I could live with a Gooch-ish player out there, but I'm starting to wonder if that player isn't Schumaker.

haltz · Post by **haltz** » March 13 07, 1:24 pm

jagtrader wrote:If you use Wilson as a defensive replacement, you don't have him as a pinch hitter. And you have no righthanded bat on the bench other than Bennett and Spiezio, who hits lousy righthanded.

I'm picturing a scenario where Encarnacion is that guy.

JohtoVillage · Post by **JohtoVillage** » March 13 07, 1:33 pm

It's good to hear that I am not the only one high on JRod. I would jump at the opportunity to put JRod in the starting lineup over Encarnacion. The only problem with that is the fact that it would make our entire outfield left-handed, but I guess the Yankees do that as well (Abreu in right, Damon in center, and Matsui in left).

I mean in just over 330 career major league AB's, JRod does have a 378 OBP and he does have a decent amount of rbi's. If you put his major league totals out to a full year, I guarantee he could hit 15-20 homers with 85 rbi's. Sounds like Encarnacion right? No....because JRod would get on base much more than Encarnacion and he'd be ten times cheaper.

Can't we give Encarnacion up for adoption or something?

GatewaySnayke · Post by **GatewaySnayke** » March 13 07, 1:35 pm

I think the problem with J-Rod starting is that:

a) he's a weak fielder
b) he's got a weaker arm

Personally, I would just platoon J-Rod and Wilson. I have a bad feeling about Encarnacion this year.

haltz · Post by **haltz** » March 13 07, 1:43 pm

His offense should make it a wash of sorts between him and Encarnacion, value-wise. The thing about carrying Rodriguez is that it would allow you to play Encarnacion in CF when Jimmy is sitting or against lefties or whatever, and still have a defensive replacement for Duncan.

It's not really about Rodriguez versus Encarnacion to me. It's about both of their bats, and Juan's defense compared to Taguchi. Basically, there should be plenty of at-bats for four or five outfielders this year. I really don't want Gooch taking a bunch of them if the Cardinals can help it.

skmsw · Post by **skmsw** » March 13 07, 2:35 pm

RC21 wrote:
jagtrader wrote:You need one defensive replacement on the bench if you're going to start Duncan in LF.
Mind you, Bozo the Clown would've been a serviceable defensive replacement for Duncan last year, but the Gooch looked an awful lot like he lost a step in the OF last year- less like a defensive replacement and more like a black hole in the lineup. I could live with a Gooch-ish player out there, but I'm starting to wonder if that player isn't Schumaker.

I heard this a lot from around July on -- people feeling like Taguchi did not have a good defensive year, and beyond that, that the poor year seemed age-related (e.g. irretrievable).

I actually thought that he was OK defensively, and I did not really see the things he did less well as so clearly related to losing a step. He did not look less quick, or like the eyes were going. His arm was not noticably weaker. PMR still had him above average among LF with at least 1,000 balls in play of playing time (I think around the top 1/3, but clustered together among a bunch of similar players).

Based on what I saw in 2006, I'm inclined to think that he had an off-year defensively (it happens just like off-years hitting or pitching), not that he's losing a step.

JL21 · Post by **JL21** » March 13 07, 2:48 pm

skmsw wrote:I heard this a lot from around July on -- people feeling like Taguchi did not have a good defensive year, and beyond that, that the poor year seemed age-related (e.g. irretrievable).

I actually thought that he was OK defensively, and I did not really see the things he did less well as so clearly related to losing a step. He did not look less quick, or like the eyes were going. His arm was not noticably weaker. PMR still had him above average among LF with at least 1,000 balls in play of playing time (I think around the top 1/3, but clustered together among a bunch of similar players).

Based on what I saw in 2006, I'm inclined to think that he had an off-year defensively (it happens just like off-years hitting or pitching), not that he's losing a step.

He was still above average, but that's coming down from well above average (I would guess). In 2004-2005, he was a spectacular and versatile OF defender. In 2006, that wasn't the case.

I think there's a little truth to both. Did he suddenly become Steve Balboni with an OF'ers mitt? No. But he didn't entirely display the range he had before.

But the bigger issue is what you point out- or what I'm assuming you mean when you say that they're issues not related to "losing a step". And that's misplaying lots of flyballs. The thing is, players at his age who dip a little in defensive value- be it misplaying flyballs or losing a little range- and have very little offensive value... well, that's a big red flag. And with gimpy Edmonds and gimpy and mediocre Encarnacion gobbling up lots of at-bats in the OF, plus a suspect-but-promising Duncan, it may not be a luxury they can afford.

skmsw · Post by **skmsw** » March 13 07, 2:55 pm

But the bigger issue is what you point out- or what I'm assuming you mean when you say that they're issues not related to "losing a step". And that's misplaying lots of flyballs. The thing is, players at his age who dip a little in defensive value- be it misplaying flyballs or losing a little range- and have very little offensive value... well, that's a big red flag.

The question for me is -- will he continue to decline defensively? Will he stay at last year's level? Or will he bounce back and have a better defensive year? If last year's performance was age-related, then it will likely be one of the first two, in which case you have to look long and hard before you keep him around.

If last year was not age-related, it was just an off-year defensively --and he'll therefore likely return to previously established defensive levels -- then he still constitutes an intelligent baserunner, a great bunter and situational/contact hitter, and strong defensive replacement at three OF positions. That's a good utility OFer (with PWil, So does not even need to be a fourth OF -- just a utility player who can PR, who can PH in H/R or bunt situations, occasionally bat second and play a goof CF, and come in for Duncan defensively every night).

JL21 · Post by **JL21** » March 13 07, 3:16 pm

skmsw wrote:
But the bigger issue is what you point out- or what I'm assuming you mean when you say that they're issues not related to "losing a step". And that's misplaying lots of flyballs. The thing is, players at his age who dip a little in defensive value- be it misplaying flyballs or losing a little range- and have very little offensive value... well, that's a big red flag.
The question for me is -- will he continue to decline defensively? Will he stay at last year's level? Or will he bounce back and have a better defensive year? If last year's performance was age-related, then it will likely be one of the first two, in which case you have to look long and hard before you keep him around.

If last year was not age-related, it was just an off-year defensively --and he'll therefore likely return to previously established defensive levels -- then he still constitutes an intelligent baserunner, a great bunter and situational/contact hitter, and strong defensive replacement at three OF positions. That's a good utility OFer (with PWil, So does not even need to be a fourth OF -- just a utility player who can PR, who can PH in H/R or bunt situations, occasionally bat second and play a goof CF, and come in for Duncan defensively every night).

Even if he stays where he is defensively (same as '06), if he could hit like he did in '04 and '05, it would be ok. I'm just nervous because of age. I definitely think he gets a bad rep based on '06, but I'm very nervous.