Andy Van Slyke on Duncan

[Popeye_Card]

I agree that Duncan probably will never be better than average defensively, but do you remember an instance of a bad defensive left-fielder costing a team a world championship, a playoff berth, or a pennant?

Bonds wasn't a bad LF, but if his arm hadn't been so darn weak, then Sid Bream is out by a mile.

Funny thing is, that was back when he was winning Gold Gloves every year...

--P--

[greenback44]

Problem is, the instincts and reaction time (first step), judgment of the ball in flight (missing ones he gets to), etc are not things that are often changed dramatically as a result of experience or coaching. Footwork? Maybe. Release point throwing the ball? Sure. Positioning? Situational adjustments? Could be. But Duncan's defensive liabilities seem to be mostly around the things that are in the wiring and don't change a lot. I'm skeptical he is going to improve very much.

Part of his problem is confidence, which in theory could improve with repetition. Way back when I remember hearing stories about Larry Bird taking a thousand jump shots a day, or something ridiculous like that. I'm a bit disappointed we haven't heard similar stuff about Duncan fielding flyballs this past offseason.

[skmsw]

Problem is, the instincts and reaction time (first step), judgment of the ball in flight (missing ones he gets to), etc are not things that are often changed dramatically as a result of experience or coaching. Footwork? Maybe. Release point throwing the ball? Sure. Positioning? Situational adjustments? Could be. But Duncan's defensive liabilities seem to be mostly around the things that are in the wiring and don't change a lot. I'm skeptical he is going to improve very much.

Part of his problem is confidence, which in theory could improve with repetition.

How do you know that part of his problem is confidence? Which part of the problem is related to his confidence, and which is related to his defensive skills? What theory suggests that repetition will improve confidence, and that better confidence will result in better defensive skills?

I'm not trying to be difficult, and certainly what you said passes most reasonable common sense tests. I'm just not so sure how much we can read into and assume things like that are playing a significant role in outcomes.

[greenback44]

Problem is, the instincts and reaction time (first step), judgment of the ball in flight (missing ones he gets to), etc are not things that are often changed dramatically as a result of experience or coaching. Footwork? Maybe. Release point throwing the ball? Sure. Positioning? Situational adjustments? Could be. But Duncan's defensive liabilities seem to be mostly around the things that are in the wiring and don't change a lot. I'm skeptical he is going to improve very much.

Part of his problem is confidence, which in theory could improve with repetition.

How do you know that part of his problem is confidence? Which part of the problem is related to his confidence, and which is related to his defensive skills? What theory suggests that repetition will improve confidence, and that better confidence will result in better defensive skills?

I'm sorry that I can't provide you with a fancy name to slap onto the theory, but Chris Duncan had a number of gaffes where he got to the ball, locked-up and simply didn't know where to put his hands. He's very mechanical on defense, maybe even robotic, and in theory his response time can be improved with experience, although he obviously requires more work than the average bear.

[Popeye_Card]

Problem is, the instincts and reaction time (first step), judgment of the ball in flight (missing ones he gets to), etc are not things that are often changed dramatically as a result of experience or coaching. Footwork? Maybe. Release point throwing the ball? Sure. Positioning? Situational adjustments? Could be. But Duncan's defensive liabilities seem to be mostly around the things that are in the wiring and don't change a lot. I'm skeptical he is going to improve very much.

Part of his problem is confidence, which in theory could improve with repetition.

How do you know that part of his problem is confidence? Which part of the problem is related to his confidence, and which is related to his defensive skills? What theory suggests that repetition will improve confidence, and that better confidence will result in better defensive skills?

I'm sorry that I can't provide you with a fancy name to slap onto the theory, but Chris Duncan had a number of gaffes where he got to the ball, locked-up and simply didn't know where to put his hands. He's very mechanical on defense, maybe even robotic, and in theory his response time can be improved with experience, although he obviously requires more work than the average bear.

I agree with this. I think we can see improvement on the balls that he gets to, but he just inexplicably drops. There were two notable ones in the playoffs.

But what will likely never improve are those instincts and first step. I think some people just have the inate ability to judge where a ball is going off the bat, and as it flies through the air. I don't think Duncan has that. We watch MLB caliber OF's so long that we think it's easy. It's not--there's a heck of a lot of spin on balls, and a lot of room they have to cover in the OF. Some people aren't cut out to be MLB outfielders, even if they can hit at that level.

--P--

[haltz]

I think some people just have the inate ability to judge where a ball is going off the bat, and as it flies through the air. I don't think Duncan has that. We watch MLB caliber OF's so long that we think it's easy. It's not--there's a heck of a lot of spin on balls, and a lot of room they have to cover in the OF. Some people aren't cut out to be MLB outfielders, even if they can hit at that level.

If I am ever in a bar with TLR I'm ordering whatever he's drinking, but I think that these instincts can be improved. I base that partially on the lack of experience that Duncan has, and this is going to be really really anecdotal and all of that, but just how weird it is to find yourself in the outfield after years and years at 1B or catcher or something.

Part of what might seem innate is really just reading a ball off the bat, which is really tough, especially at the ML level, but I think that it can be taught to some extent. I'm not suggesting that I agree with the totality of LaRussa's statement at all, just that I think that is a skillset that can be improved as well.

He's got a decent arm and can move for a big man, I'm probably a little more optimistic than most, but I can see him being serviceable in LF in a year or two.

[ghostrunner]

I think routes to the ball and basic flyball catching are teachable, and these are areas he needs teaching in. How he got this far without it, I don't know. I'm sure it's partly to do with being at first most of the time.

If he does this okay in practice, it probably is a confidence issue. Of course we're not privy to that information.

[Jocephus]

I think routes to the ball and basic flyball catching are teachable, and these are areas he needs teaching in. How he got this far without it, I don't know. I'm sure it's partly to do with being at first most of the time.

If he does this okay in practice, it probably is a confidence issue. Of course we're not privy to that information.

isn't it obvious? being the son of dave duncan

[skmsw]

Problem is, the instincts and reaction time (first step), judgment of the ball in flight (missing ones he gets to), etc are not things that are often changed dramatically as a result of experience or coaching. Footwork? Maybe. Release point throwing the ball? Sure. Positioning? Situational adjustments? Could be. But Duncan's defensive liabilities seem to be mostly around the things that are in the wiring and don't change a lot. I'm skeptical he is going to improve very much.

Part of his problem is confidence, which in theory could improve with repetition.

How do you know that part of his problem is confidence? Which part of the problem is related to his confidence, and which is related to his defensive skills? What theory suggests that repetition will improve confidence, and that better confidence will result in better defensive skills?

I'm sorry that I can't provide you with a fancy name to slap onto the theory

(sigh) I said I wasn't trying to be difficult. So I'll assume that I should not take this as condescension on your part. I was just wondering how you had decided that confidence was a prime player in his difficulties.

but Chris Duncan had a number of gaffes where he got to the ball, locked-up and simply didn't know where to put his hands. He's very mechanical on defense, maybe even robotic, and in theory his response time can be improved with experience, although he obviously requires more work than the average bear.

I believe that this is related to judgement of the ball in flight, reaction time, and other more innate things than apparently you do. Things that confidence will have small or no impact upon, and that experience will have almsot (but not quite) as limited an impact upon.

I don't completely disagree that practice and experience can lead to some overall improvements. But I think that the reason those balls eat him up is not because of lack of confidence. I think it is because, due to misreading the ball in flight or not reacting to it as called for, the ball gets to him at times other than when he expects it to. So he is often caught unprepared.

He's been playing baseball practically his entire life. I'm just not sure that lack of confidence or lack of repetition is responsible for the things we're seeing. I'm not disputing the fact that some players do get better. But in his case, I sort of have the feeling that if he hasn't figured out what the ball is going to do by now, or hasn't developed the smoothness to get his hands where they belong when the ball arrives yet, he isn't likely to get MUCH better at using those innate skills.

Like (I think it was) Popeye said earlier -- maybe the up-side of moving himself from perhaps the worst, to perhaps the bottom three (assuming that the other two don't try to develop THEIR confidence or increase THEIR repetitions too).

[AJ]

We really won't know a thing until we see him play a few regular season series........

You will really be able to tell his confidence level by where he plays.... if he is obviously playing too deep, he is not confident in his ability to get the ones over his head, and you will see a lot of singles fall in front of him that should be caught.

IMO, I think a lot of this will be luck, if Duncan has several tough balls hit to him early, and he doesn't make the play, the media and fans will be all over him and it will really take a hit on his confidence, and he will play deeper. If he can get some lolipops the first couple series, make the plays, he will be alright.

I think the CF will be able to help him a lot to.... what we cannot have happen is what Edmonds did in the WS..... run over like he was going to catch it and pretty much fake Duncan out.