Posted: July 6 06, 10:46 am
(chuckle) I know . . . you "don't disagree," you "just question it."stewie13 wrote:I'm sorry, I can't just let this slide
Yes, I was way off and I apologize for misleading . . . instead of saying age 21-22-23-24, it should have been age 22-23-24-25.especially when the numbers are inaccurate...
You're using that chart to suggest that we should assume he was not at risk. That chart has nothing whatsoever to do with workload. The average pitcher may be durable at age 25, but the chart tells us nothing about the overworked pitcher.his really big numbers came at age 24 and 25 when statistically he is supposed to be at his most durable.
My theory is that pitchers who carry excessive workloads prior to age 25 or so are at risk for decreased effectiveness, diminished velocity, and increased risk of injury later in their careers due to low-grade but accumulative physiological damage related to the overuse. If from age 22 to age 25 something happened to his arm so he no longer has the same capabilities at age 30, then sure, why would it not make sense to talk about it???Weaver turns 30 in just over a month, does it really make sense talk about his workload 5+ years ago as a reason for his struggles now?
Weaver ERA+ at age 22 to 24: 111, 109, 121It sure didn't seem to affect him the previous two seasons.
Weaver "the previous two seasons:" 103 and 96
Just for the record, I'm not saying that these are reasons that we should not have signed Jeff Weaver, nor am I suggesting that he won't do well for us. I have other posts on this very thread showing exactly why I think he is a prime candidate to rebound and pitch quite well.
This pitch count stuff, as you know, is a passion of mine. So I take some interest in pointing out when I notice how a highly-regarded pitcher off to a promising start who throws 91-93 consistently and tops out at 94-95 occasionally, starts his career with three seasons out of his first four of ERA+'s between 109 and 121 -- but averages over 110 pitches per start at ages 22-24, and morphs into a league-average pitcher starting around age 25-26, and throws 88-91 at age 29 . . .
My theory is just a theory. My opinion is just an opinion. Dissent or counter-evidence is always welcome. But I stumble across these guys who have a few very good seasons before age 25, pitch more than we would expect for their age, and become league-average pitchers starting around age 27 . . .
Who knows, maybe if the Dodgers or Angels did an MRI of Weaver they would find low-grade inflammation of the rotator cuff, minor fraying of the labrum, and/or various impingements and scar tissue. And maybe if they comparred this hypothetical MRI to an equally hypothetical MRI the Yankees did, they would find similar but fresher injuries.
Or maybe age and overuse have nothing to do with it, and any pitcher is equally likely, controling for genetics and mechanics, to suffer these injuries. I leave open that possibility but personally believe that it is less likely than age and workload being significant risk factors.