Re: 2016-17 NBA Season
Posted: March 8 17, 2:31 pm
In the last 40 years of the NBA the only player who was not on a team that finished 1st or 2nd in their conference to win the MVP was Jordan in '88. That team had a .610 win percentage and was 3rd in their conference. Russ's team is running .547 and is 7th in their conference. While he's the triple-double king (without actually winning two of those three statistics races) it would be unprecedented for a player on a 7 seed to win the MVP.
Unlike baseball in which the big offensive stats are isolated down to mostly 1-on-1 matchups determined by a single 60'6" area and are generally very good at telling us most of what we need to know about performance, there's a lot in basketball that doesn't translate to stats. Like Lebron taking over a game defensively in the 4th quarter--making defensive stops doesn't translate to stats, but Lebron does it. Or Curry running around three screens getting the defense to chase after him, leaving Thompson open. Or a lot of other things, that are almost immeasurable in basketball. Think about the stuff in baseball that has a stat. A putout has a stat for the fielder and an out for the hitter. But if you close the baseline off to an opponent and he steps on the line, that opponent gets a turnover while you get no positive corresponding stat. In baseball a HBP has a negative stat for a pitcher and a corresponding positive stat for the batter. But if you take a charge, the opposing player gets a personal foul called and you get no corresponding positive stat indicating that you've done something to aid your team. None of the advanced stats, whether on BBREF or in ESPN's Hollinger stats, or otherwise gives us the full picture of a basketball player's impact on a game. And because it's five-on-five and free flowing great players have huge impact, which again isn't all in stats.
It's certainly not in just three stats. Much like arguing Miggy > Trout for MVP that one year Miggy won the Triple Crown, there are perhaps some stats left out of this that have as much impact as rebounds and assists on the outcome of games.
Westbrook turns the ball over 5.4 times/game. Kawhi only 2.0.
Westbrook misses 9.7 2-pointers per game. Kawhi only 6.0.
Westbrook misses 4.5 3-pointers per game, Kawhi only 3.2.
Westbrook gets 1.6 steals per game. Kawhi 1.9.
Westbrook commits 2.4 fouls per game. Kawhi 1.6.
Westbrook blocks 0.4 shots per game. Kawhi 0.7.
Those Hollinger ESPN stats have Russ leading the league in PER at 30.22. Kawhi is 2nd at 28.67 and has played five fewer games--his team has played fewer than OKC and also Kawhi has rested for the playoff run. That's not a big difference and Kawhi bridges that gap in the triple-double stats for 3 reasons:
1. he's a good shooter and Westbrook is not
2. Westbrook takes way too many shots for a bad shooter
3. Westbrook is a turnover machine
FWIW Westbrook might have been a better overall player last year. His Win Shares/48 minutes was higher. His offensive rating (an estimate of how many points a player produces) was higher last year. His defensive rating was better last year (like ORtg but for D).
He's basically peak Adam Dunn: 40 HR and 100 RBI and 122 walks and nothing else.
Unlike baseball in which the big offensive stats are isolated down to mostly 1-on-1 matchups determined by a single 60'6" area and are generally very good at telling us most of what we need to know about performance, there's a lot in basketball that doesn't translate to stats. Like Lebron taking over a game defensively in the 4th quarter--making defensive stops doesn't translate to stats, but Lebron does it. Or Curry running around three screens getting the defense to chase after him, leaving Thompson open. Or a lot of other things, that are almost immeasurable in basketball. Think about the stuff in baseball that has a stat. A putout has a stat for the fielder and an out for the hitter. But if you close the baseline off to an opponent and he steps on the line, that opponent gets a turnover while you get no positive corresponding stat. In baseball a HBP has a negative stat for a pitcher and a corresponding positive stat for the batter. But if you take a charge, the opposing player gets a personal foul called and you get no corresponding positive stat indicating that you've done something to aid your team. None of the advanced stats, whether on BBREF or in ESPN's Hollinger stats, or otherwise gives us the full picture of a basketball player's impact on a game. And because it's five-on-five and free flowing great players have huge impact, which again isn't all in stats.
It's certainly not in just three stats. Much like arguing Miggy > Trout for MVP that one year Miggy won the Triple Crown, there are perhaps some stats left out of this that have as much impact as rebounds and assists on the outcome of games.
Westbrook turns the ball over 5.4 times/game. Kawhi only 2.0.
Westbrook misses 9.7 2-pointers per game. Kawhi only 6.0.
Westbrook misses 4.5 3-pointers per game, Kawhi only 3.2.
Westbrook gets 1.6 steals per game. Kawhi 1.9.
Westbrook commits 2.4 fouls per game. Kawhi 1.6.
Westbrook blocks 0.4 shots per game. Kawhi 0.7.
Those Hollinger ESPN stats have Russ leading the league in PER at 30.22. Kawhi is 2nd at 28.67 and has played five fewer games--his team has played fewer than OKC and also Kawhi has rested for the playoff run. That's not a big difference and Kawhi bridges that gap in the triple-double stats for 3 reasons:
1. he's a good shooter and Westbrook is not
2. Westbrook takes way too many shots for a bad shooter
3. Westbrook is a turnover machine
FWIW Westbrook might have been a better overall player last year. His Win Shares/48 minutes was higher. His offensive rating (an estimate of how many points a player produces) was higher last year. His defensive rating was better last year (like ORtg but for D).
He's basically peak Adam Dunn: 40 HR and 100 RBI and 122 walks and nothing else.
