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Re: MAGIC NUMBER: 41
Posted: August 17 09, 6:50 am
by dmarx114
planet pujolsian wrote:I don't consider this thread a jinx, but I keep thinking about the Mets. Was it last season or the season before when they blew a six game lead in the division within two weeks to go?
Here's the thing.....
Nobody in this thread has claimed that the Cards are locks to win the division. It's just a way to figure out when the Cards could conceivably win the division. And updating the number in this thread, along with poting pictures is just a fun way to celebrate each win and each Cubs loss. To me, this is one of the neat things about being in first place.
Re: MAGIC NUMBER: 41
Posted: August 17 09, 2:47 pm
by Michael
BP playoff odds.
Code: Select all
Average wins by position in NL Central: 90.5 85.0 80.0 76.0 70.4 65.0 90.6
NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals 67 52 .510 90.0 72.0 81.19495 1.96487 83.15982 2.58003 16.11918
Cubs 60 55 .500 84.9 77.1 16.43917 4.46911 20.90828 -0.73719 -14.74162
Brewers 58 59 .459 79.5 82.5 2.05692 .30008 2.35699 -1.05443 -1.78986
Astros 57 61 .436 76.7 85.3 .30803 .03555 .34359 .06623 -1.24837
Reds 50 67 .416 69.8 92.2 .00088 .00010 .00098 -0.00091 -0.01318
Pirates 46 70 .407 66.0 96.0 .00005 .00000 .00005 .00005 -0.00083
Re: MAGIC NUMBER: 41
Posted: August 17 09, 2:51 pm
by Faceman
Am I readling that right? Only a 4% chance Cubs are wild card? Less than 2% that the Cards are?
Re: MAGIC NUMBER: 41
Posted: August 17 09, 2:53 pm
by cards2468
Faceman wrote:Am I readling that right? Only a 4% chance Cubs are wild card? Less than 2% that the Cards are?
I think the odds that we win the division knock down the odds that we win the wild card.
Re: MAGIC NUMBER: 41
Posted: August 17 09, 3:01 pm
by Faceman
cards2468 wrote:Faceman wrote:Am I readling that right? Only a 4% chance Cubs are wild card? Less than 2% that the Cards are?
I think the odds that we win the division knock down the odds that we win the wild card.
Right, I got that. I think my point is that if you add em up, you get about a 6.5% chance that the WC comes from the central (all the other teams are basically 0%). The Cards have a better record than any WC contender to date. I suppose this means that if the Cards don't win the Central, it's because they blow it and lose their shot at the WC (instead of the Cards continuing to play good ball but the Cubs go lights out and pass the Cards).
Re: MAGIC NUMBER: 41
Posted: August 17 09, 3:04 pm
by Faceman
Looking at the full report. . . the Braves and Cubs are both 5 games over 500, with the Braves having played 2 more games (61-56 vs. 60-55), yet they are about twice as likely to win the WC.
Maybe strength of schedule down the stretch?
Re: MAGIC NUMBER: 41
Posted: August 17 09, 3:04 pm
by obucard
cards2468 wrote:Faceman wrote:Am I readling that right? Only a 4% chance Cubs are wild card? Less than 2% that the Cards are?
I think the odds that we win the division knock down the odds that we win the wild card.
The Cubs odds also knock down ours. If they were the WC leaders, our odds for WC would be higher, being able to fall back on the WC if they took the division. Their low odds for the WC mean if they pass us in the division, we're probably out of the WC race (as it is, we're only 1.5 games ahead of WC leader Colorado).
Re: MAGIC NUMBER: 41
Posted: August 17 09, 6:16 pm
by jim
Michael wrote:BP playoff odds.
Code: Select all
Average wins by position in NL Central: 90.5 85.0 80.0 76.0 70.4 65.0 90.6
NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals 67 52 .510 90.0 72.0 81.19495 1.96487 83.15982 2.58003 16.11918
Cubs 60 55 .500 84.9 77.1 16.43917 4.46911 20.90828 -0.73719 -14.74162
Brewers 58 59 .459 79.5 82.5 2.05692 .30008 2.35699 -1.05443 -1.78986
Astros 57 61 .436 76.7 85.3 .30803 .03555 .34359 .06623 -1.24837
Reds 50 67 .416 69.8 92.2 .00088 .00010 .00098 -0.00091 -0.01318
Pirates 46 70 .407 66.0 96.0 .00005 .00000 .00005 .00005 -0.00083
That's probably the least useful of the bunch. PECOTA adjusted and ELO are more reflective imo because they actually adjust for the quality of the players on your team.
Code: Select all
Average wins by position in NL Central: 92.0 86.0 80.4 76.3 71.0 63.2
NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Cardinals 67 52 .556 91.6 70.4 84.20883 2.98866 87.19749
Cubs 60 55 .525 86.0 76.0 14.49753 8.22247 22.72000
Brewers 58 59 .480 79.8 82.2 1.15562 .36582 1.52143
Astros 57 61 .467 76.9 85.1 .13710 .04218 .17928
Reds 50 67 .441 71.2 90.8 .00092 .00021 .00112
Pirates 46 70 .362 63.5 98.5 .00000 .00000 .00000
Re: MAGIC NUMBER: 41
Posted: August 17 09, 10:41 pm
by JS04
te he he he..
Still haven't lost since this was posted...
Re: MAGIC NUMBER: 41
Posted: August 17 09, 10:43 pm
by Freed Roger
