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Mo and Co. were even worse than we thought.

The Ks are worrisome. But, man, 23 homers in 280 plate appearances with that kind of athleticism is exciting.

jagtrader wrote: ↑

June 17 26, 6:59 am

The Ks are worrisome. But, man, 23 homers in 280 plate appearances with that kind of athleticism is exciting.

How is his defense considered? Just average? Above average? Liability? Any possibility to move Walker back to 3rd to make room for Baez eventually?

No chance walker goes back to infield.
He is a right fielder. He plays cromulent rf and has a fantastic arm.
Baez plays left and is passable in cf (what I have read). He is super athletic and with good coaching could play in cf (that’s my dream). He is a big guy 6’3” 220.
I believe in Jon Jay after what he has done with Walker.

if I'm the FO he stays down all year....there's countless stories of guys that can mash in the minors but their SO rates (with low BB) makes them virtually unplayable

I was hoping his 20% k and 12% BB in AA last year was a sign of things to come, but it's at a 31%k rate and a pitiful 6.8% BB in his first go round at AAA

he's still young/won't turn 23 till next week, so no rush

cardsfantx wrote: ↑

June 17 26, 10:59 am

if I'm the FO he stays down all year....there's countless stories of guys that can mash in the minors but their SO rates (with low BB) makes them virtually unplayable

I was hoping his 20% k and 12% BB in AA last year was a sign of things to come, but it's at a 31%k rate and a pitiful 6.8% BB in his first go round at AAA

he's still young/won't turn 23 till next week, so no rush

He currently has a 66.6% contact % in AAA.

Qualified hitters with a contact % that low:

Munetaka Murakami
Nolan Gorman
Oneil Cruz
Garrett Mitchell
Colson Montgomery

You'd expect his contact % to reduce in MLB, at least for a while.

His wOBA is .411 and his xwOBA is only .358.

He has a 28.7% HR/FB %.

Qualified hitters in this bucket:

Munetaka Murakami
Kyle Schwarber
Nick Kurtz
Ben Rice
Oneil Cruz
Hunter Goodman
James Wood
Aaron Judge
Max Muncy
Jake Bauers
Yordan Alvarez
Willson Contreras
Jordan Walker
Byron Buxton
Junior Caminero
Brandon Lowe
Colson Montgomery

His swinging strike % is 17.2%.

Qualified hitters with that high of %:

Nolan Gorman
Colson Montgomery
Hunter Goodman

Most similar Qualified MLB Hitters:

Munetaka Murakami (sans walks)
O'Neil Cruz
Nolan Gorman
Colson Montgomery

Weirdly, all of them are LHH and Baez is a RHH.

So he'll either be Nolan Gorman or Munetaka Murakami. Cool.

heyzeus wrote: ↑

June 18 26, 8:29 am

So he'll either be Nolan Gorman or Munetaka Murakami. Cool.

Without the walks. Which is a big hit to the profile. But more athleticism.

After doing that exercise I get why some prospect outlets are lukewarm on him. The contact profile isn't just poor, it's scary bad.

Almost no productive major leaguers with his contact profile- especially righthanded.

But the power and speed can work if he finds just a little more contact. Judge is an outlier you don't comp to, but that is the type of exit velocities and power upside if he gets his contact into the 70's and his swinging strike % down to the 14's.

To be clear, those are big jumps to make, but I'm a believer the power will just play.

I just looked in Baseball Reference, was looking at Gorman's minor league #'s compared to Baez, and they're pretty similar. It made me temper my enthusiasm a bit.