Misc. Minor League Ramblings

[Schlich]

There'd be a selection bias if you chose from MLB WAR leaderboards instead of prospect rankings. All jim's saying, i think, is that athlete-types are more of a 'sure thing' than the 'mashers,' even if their ceiling isn't as high.

[jim]

I didn't really mean the middle/corner thing I said, I was trying to express that toolsy types rank higher because it translates better. I should have said take a top 20 list, and I'll take the top 10 guys period and you take whatever 10 (mashers) you want and I'll win. If a guy has one tool that is so good (hit/power) scouts will see and evaluate that properly.

All I'm trying to say is that I don't buy one thing you are saying about this new rant of yours about how toolsy guys are overrated.

[33anda3rd]

If we took 2013.

You'd have Profar, Taveras, Bundy, Myers, Fernandez, Shelby, Cole, Bogaerts, Sano, Buxton.

If I took the best corner bats I'd have Taveras, Myers, Sano, Castellanos, Olt, Singleton, Rendon, Soler, Puig, Arenado.

I'd be ahead and if you were ahead it would not be b/c of SSs it would be b/c of SP.

If we took 2008 (I'm picking at random).

You'd have Bruce, Longoria, Joba, Buchholtz, Rasmus, Maybin, Kershaw, Morales, Bailey, Price.

I'd have Longoria, Mostakas, Hosmer, CarGo, LaPorta, Schafer, Heyward, Headley, Kosuke, Ian Stewart.

You'd be ahead, but it wouldn't have anything to do with the one up-the-middle player on your list (Rasmus.)

If we took SP out of it, and just went on position players and you got the top 10 overall prospects and I got the top 10 hitting prospects, we'd split on the ones that crossed over--we'd be sharing Mike Trout, McCutchen, A-Rod, Longoria, guys like this--and you'd lose when guys like Ian Stewart and Chase Headley end up in the show having a decent career and putting up a little value while your toolsy guys failed to develop enough hit at the MLB level to stick around.

[33anda3rd]

I'll go back to Elvis right quick. BA had him #19 overall entering 2008. The only SSs higher were Brandon Wood and Moustakas, The BA writeup on their site was that he hit .353 in the AFL as the youngest player there. Based on that, there's excitement. Young and hitting. In MLB, though, he's a BABIP-reliant .272 hitter with almost no power even in the league's most hitter-friendly environment, and his value the last couple years has been entirely defensive and baserunning. All the tools in the world (like Brandon Wood, a few spots ahead of him on that list.) Elvis had a great start when he was a ~345 OBP guy plus an athlete. But as a toolsy athlete with no hit or power to speak of the last couple years, and I know this is anecdotal but there are dozens of Andruses the last 5 years, what this shows us is that tools DO NOT translate better than anything. Athleticism DOES NOT translate better than anything. Baseball skills do.

The minor leagues are littered with athletes who don't have baseball skills. They're a dime a dozen, and you can drop into any Midwest League stadium any night of the week this summer and see them, all under 20 and playing up the middle with really good athleticism. But when you walk into a minor league stadium and you see someone hit like Bryant it's eye-opening because not a lot of people can do that, and that is something that has a TON of value at the MLB level.

[33anda3rd]

I should have said take a top 20 list, and I'll take the top 10 guys period and you take whatever 10 (mashers) you want and I'll win.

Y'know, you're on, if you want, and we'll make it a fun/friendly wager.

1. You get the top 10 position players on this year's BP Top 101. It has to be BP because that's the list I'm arguing with. No pitchers. That is: Buxton, Russell, Correa, Lindor, Bryant, Seager, Sano, Gallo, Swihart, Pederson.

2. I get the top 10 corner bats. I don't need to take the 10 that I want, just the top 10 corner bats on the BP list: Bryant, Sano, Gallo, Soler, Piscotty, Nomar Mazara, Dalton Pompey, Jesse Winker, Raimel Tapia, Aaron Judge.

3. We scratch the crossover guys, of course: Bryant, Sano, Gallo are out. It's 7-on-7 with the remaining guys.
You: Buxton, Russell, Correa, Lindor, Seager, Swihart, Pederson
Me: Soler, Piscotty, Mazara, Pompey, Winker, Tapia, Judge.

4. The final score is career fWAR. I was thinking, like, if someone is a total bust (never makes MLB) you lose more points and if they don't get past 2K career PA you lose some points, or if they win an MVP you get bonus points, but just good old fashioned all-encompassing fWAR should work.

If I win: You treat me and Michael to dinner in a city of Chicago restaurant of my choice. This must happen between January 1 and March 1 of whatever year it happens on a night in which the temp is below 20F and you are not permitted to discuss weather or how unhappy you are to be in Chicago at any point in the meal.

If you win: make the call, and I'll let you know if I agree. Something with a similar value of ~$400.

You should do this. I'm 0-1 in putting my money where my mouth is on GRB bets, and haltz can attest that I'm good to pay up if I lose.

[jim]

Dinner in Chicago with you? I decline this bet.

[33anda3rd]

Losing isn't supposed to be pleasant. Also, that's not very confident. It's not like I'm thinking, hey, there's a guy I'd probably enjoy a night with.

[33anda3rd]

Scratch the dinner idea, then. We can make it a friendly $50, with the loser contributing $50 to the charity of the winner's choice.

[haltz]

I haven't read this whole argument, but Cabrera was a SS in the low minors, Donaldson was a catcher and Gordon put up +27 on defense last year. MiLB SSs are MLB 3B and CF turn into RF etc. You can end up without athleticism, but it's hard to start without it.

[jim]

That's one of the reasons that you don't see a ton of high profile college 1B/3B. Guys that are that good tend to be athletic enough where at the college level they are playing a corner OF position. Pujols was a SS in college.

3's I only bet on the ponies and with friends playing cards. I'm more interested in emphasizing the point that scouts and evaluators aren't blind to the fact that sometimes one tool can carry a player. Nobody knows if Buxton is going to be better than Bryant or Lindor or Russell or Piscotty - and I know you know that too.

Bryant is going to be a very good player, zero question in my mind about that.