MrCrowesGarden wrote:Yes, Brandon Drury isn't enough because Brandon Drury is a worse baseball player.
Where is the body of evidence that Brandon Drury is a significantly worse baseball player though, enough such that he merits
another upgrade? Especially since we're talking about Mike Moustakas, who has had a decently volatile career?
Sure, Drury could end up producing a 1 WAR season that Moustakas outperforms
handily. But Moose could also end up producing a 1 WAR season himself.
Rather humorously as an aside of sorts, two of the major value calculations (BWARP and rWAR) see the two players as having produced a negligible difference in value last year (1.8 to 1.6, 1.9 to 1.2).
Brandon Drury rather importantly also has a role on that team if he were to not end up as the 3B starter (which he probably won't): super utility guy.
Moose, does not provide that or any other role.
I also would like to know what changed (again) between the start of the offseason-- when the Yankees needed a third baseman-- and now, when they've added a bench player but not a starter?
Did the Yankees ever actually say "We
need a 3B," or is that just what the internet extrapolated from how the internet thought about their roster?
Why do they need to add a starter? They have one. His name is "something called a Miguel Andújar."
It's kind of hilarious to me that a year after the Yankees entrusted Aaron Judge to a starting role and ended up with a ROY, All-Star, Silver Slugger and AL HR leader...someone on a forum thinks they know better than the Yankees' own internal talent evaluation. And that their knowledgable advice is therefore "Spend, spend, spend!"
The even funnier part is that again, even if they don't like what they see from their kids in ST, they could still sign someone like Neil Walker and end up with an equivalent player to what KC got back from Moose!
And if we're operating under the math that Craig Edwards put out there, a second round pick has a value around $5-10 million. That'd put Moose's value well above that. Even after the subtractions, I don't see how he's not more valuable.
That little bit of calculus only really makes sense if you're thinking about him fitting into a blank, empty slot situation. Moose's value is above that valuation
if you're planning on him being a starter. That would not be the intent of the Yankees though, which craters a valuation for them, and magnifies the loss of draft picks and signing money (and taking ABs away from prospects as well).
And still,
none of this addresses the main issue of why Moustakas would want to take a job where he wouldn't necessarily be the Opening Day starter to begin with.
We can use the Cardinals as an example too, if you'd prefer. They don't need a third baseman, but he would make them a deeper team and would bump whatever lesser player you choose off the roster. For the Cardinals (and the Yankees), those changes could be the difference between a wild card and the division-- or making and missing the playoffs.
This is a similar argument that's not quite as silly, but still not that convincing to me.
If you pick up Moose, he's not bumping Jedd off 3B. So if we're assuming a starting position, he bumps Jedd over to Wong's 2B and Wong is the odd man out. However, Moose is really only projected to be around 0.5 WAR better than Wong. So now you've just given up at least $6.5 million for a 0.5 WAR upgrade, along with lost draft picks and international signing money. There
might not be value lost in the end, but that doesn't sound like a super convincing move to me. It's a tick upwards at best, a lateral move on average, and an outright bad move at worst.
If on the other hand you imagine Moose in a non-starting role, as some kind of mere "depth" that's only bumping say, a Luke Voit type player off the roster, the value given up because of the QO penalties seems even worse.
MrCrowesGarden wrote:I would also add that the Yankees are the only team in MLB with a projected greater than 15% chance at making the playoffs and who Moustakas would represent a half-win or more upgrade at third base. I could understand why they wouldn't want to do a long-term deal with him. I do not understand why they wouldn't offer him a one-year deal for more than $6.5 million.
I understand it.
Because they have no less than two, possibly even three young players that they want to play there
now. They have a good enough team
right now that even with the possible loss of starting a young player that has to find his feet, you win a tradeoff down the road by having gotten a guy like Andújar acclimated now rather than sitting behind the lump that is Moosetacos. Or at least you know that what he offers isn't good enough so you can go after Donaldson or Machado next offseason instead. That's the thing about the Yankees that's interestingly unique. They're so good right
now, that they can afford to run two or three players on that side of the infield and see how they do, and still be a 90+ win team. That's actually really crazy, and it speaks to what they've done with their farm system.