Oswalt or Cueto?

[thrill]

elaborating...

Cueto, while a great young pitcher, just flat isn't going to match Oswalt's stats this season. Oswalt's never had an era over 3.49 in his career. Cueto would be one of the best rookie pitchers in the last decade if he matches that era in his first season. Oswalt just has such a great track record... he's a potential HOF pitcher when it's all said and done. He's playing in an easier park to pitch in. He's not going to be coddled or protected because he's young.

Cueto will likely only throw 150-175 innings. He might strike out more guys than Oswalt, but I would almost guarantee that Oswalt will win more games, pitch more innings, have a lower era, and probably a lower whip.

I'll take this bet.

If both pitchers make the same amount of starts, +/- 3, Cueto will win more standard fantasy categories than Oswalt. W, K, era, and whip. Split will obviously make it a push.

Name your terms.

[stldogget05]

I think I'm with Thrill on this one. I have sneaking suspicion that Oswalt is hurt.

[Fat Strat]

If both pitchers make the same amount of starts, +/- 3, Cueto will win more standard fantasy categories than Oswalt. W, K, era, and whip. Split will obviously make it a push.

Name your terms.

No, I'm not going to bet on this one. I don't care enough about either of them to put a wager on something like this.

Let's just look at this again, though, for fun. Wins are arbitrary. Who knows who'll win that category. Neither team is going to light up the standings. K's? I already gave you Cueto on that one. IF they start the same number of games, AND they let Cueto go 6-8 innings an outing, he'll likely win that category. If they're smart they won't allow Cueto to get more than 160-175 innings, and then we're back to a push in K's, assuming Cueto can maintain a 1 K/ip, and I'm not confident of that. Few pitchers do.

That leaves us with era and whip. At worst you've got a push with whip since Oswalt has been a whip master over his career. Even if their whip's are even (and that's giving a lot of credit to Cueto), Oswalt will be more valuable simply because he'll likely give your club 200+ ip's of 1.25 or so. Cueto likely won't.

ERA? You would have to be operating under some prophetic pretence about an injury to Oswalt to even think that Cueto will match him in era. Just pitching in Cincy will bump up his era considerably. Oswalt, meanwhile, has had 2 seasons in the last three with an era lower than 3.

[phins]

elaborating...

Cueto, while a great young pitcher, just flat isn't going to match Oswalt's stats this season. Oswalt's never had an era over 3.49 in his career. Cueto would be one of the best rookie pitchers in the last decade if he matches that era in his first season.

But Oswalt put up those stats as a rookie, and Cueto seems to be as talented, so why would we automatically assume Cueto can't put those numbers up?

Oswalt's K rate is slipping badly each adn every year, and he doesn't have the gas on fastball anymore. Keep Cueto IMO.

This coming from a person who has Oswalt on his team every year.

[Ace]

I stuck with Cueto, lets see how it plays out. His second start was a solid one. Gotta love that 18/0 strikeouts to walks.

[TheoSqua]

I would have gone Oswalt.

Cueto's ceiling is to become Oswalt. Oswalt IS Oswalt. Short-term hype just scares me. Cueto has just as much of a chance of going Zach Duke on us as he does putting up numbers even remotely close to Roy Oswalt.

[Ace]

I would have gone Oswalt.

Cueto's ceiling is to become Oswalt. Oswalt IS Oswalt. Short-term hype just scares me. Cueto has just as much of a chance of going Zach Duke on us as he does putting up numbers even remotely close to Roy Oswalt.

So far it's looking like you are right.