Rob Neyer's NL Central comments

[Radbird]

Can you comment on the state of the Cardinals rotation as they head into the season to defend the world championship. I'm not too optimistic.

ROB NEYER
I know this: if you run projections for the projected starters -- and I know projections for pitchers are tough, but please bear with me -- you'll find that the Cards do just fine. And remember, it's not like Ponson and Marquis and Mulder were pitching a lot of gems last season. I would argue that when people criticize the Cardinals for what they haven't added this winter, they should instead focus on what the Cardinals didn't bring back.

<<<<<snip>>>>>

I'm really big on Anthony Reyes, do you think he'll have the breakout season many writers are predicting him to have or just be mediocre?

ROB NEYER
I've been a fan since I saw him pitch for Memphis two years ago. I'm guardedly optimistic, but if he's healthy he'll make people forget about Suppan and Weaver.

Very interesting comments.

[Leroy]

I already forgot about Weaver.

[Secret Weapon]

Can you comment on the state of the Cardinals rotation as they head into the season to defend the world championship. I'm not too optimistic.

ROB NEYER
I know this: if you run projections for the projected starters -- and I know projections for pitchers are tough, but please bear with me -- you'll find that the Cards do just fine. And remember, it's not like Ponson and Marquis and Mulder were pitching a lot of gems last season. I would argue that when people criticize the Cardinals for what they haven't added this winter, they should instead focus on what the Cardinals didn't bring back.

<<<<<snip>>>>>

I'm really big on Anthony Reyes, do you think he'll have the breakout season many writers are predicting him to have or just be mediocre?

ROB NEYER
I've been a fan since I saw him pitch for Memphis two years ago. I'm guardedly optimistic, but if he's healthy he'll make people forget about Suppan and Weaver.

Very interesting comments.

i hate this logic

at the beginning of the season Ponson and Mulder did throw some gems. Ponson's April and May ERA's were 3.13 and 2.57 respectively, and Mulder pitched 8 quality starts out of 11 in the first 2 months.

After the first 2 months is when the pitching went down the drain, and because of that we were 10 games under .500 for the final 4 months of the season. So if our pitching this year only matches our crappy pitching after the first 2 months last year, then we will be well below .500 for the year.

[EastonBlues22]

Can you comment on the state of the Cardinals rotation as they head into the season to defend the world championship. I'm not too optimistic.

ROB NEYER
I know this: if you run projections for the projected starters -- and I know projections for pitchers are tough, but please bear with me -- you'll find that the Cards do just fine. And remember, it's not like Ponson and Marquis and Mulder were pitching a lot of gems last season. I would argue that when people criticize the Cardinals for what they haven't added this winter, they should instead focus on what the Cardinals didn't bring back.

<<<<<snip>>>>>

I'm really big on Anthony Reyes, do you think he'll have the breakout season many writers are predicting him to have or just be mediocre?

ROB NEYER
I've been a fan since I saw him pitch for Memphis two years ago. I'm guardedly optimistic, but if he's healthy he'll make people forget about Suppan and Weaver.

Very interesting comments.

i hate this logic

at the beginning of the season Ponson and Mulder did throw some gems. Ponson's April and May ERA's were 3.13 and 2.57 respectively, and Mulder pitched 8 quality starts out of 11 in the first 2 months.

After the first 2 months is when the pitching went down the drain, and because of that we were 10 games under .500 for the final 4 months of the season. So if our pitching this year only matches our crappy pitching after the first 2 months last year, then we will be well below .500 for the year.

He said that based on the projections for their pitchers this year, the Cards rotation would do just fine.

The reference to the specific pitchers was with regards to a common criticism that has been directed towards the Cardinals offseason...specifically, that the Cardinals didn't replace their departed pitchers with big name FA pitchers, so the rotation is bound to be even worse than it was last year. Neyer is pointing out that the production over the course of the year that they received from three of the slots in their rotation was terrible. It's unlikely to be that bad again, thus the rotation could be expected to improve somewhat even without the big FA signings.

[vinsanity]

i hate this logic

at the beginning of the season Ponson and Mulder did throw some gems. Ponson's April and May ERA's were 3.13 and 2.57 respectively, and Mulder pitched 8 quality starts out of 11 in the first 2 months.

After the first 2 months is when the pitching went down the drain, and because of that we were 10 games under .500 for the final 4 months of the season. So if our pitching this year only matches our crappy pitching after the first 2 months last year, then we will be well below .500 for the year.

That's fair...but I'd say if you take Ponson and Mulder's Entire body of work (probably the same as one starter) I'd be willing bet that all of our starters can top the season averages and totals. Same with Marquis. So it's not awful logic. Well or Reyes could surely have 8 quality starts, the question is can they have 16? I think so. I think Reyes will more Gems and less FLops than Ponson. I think Wells is the new Suppan, durable, average to slightly above innings eater. And I'm cautiously optimistic Wainwright can put up the same innings with fewer runs than Marquis.

That does make the team a lot better. No really.